mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Why is it that when I went to this twitter link an hour ago it worked, but now it appears to be taken offline, and the user's tweets are locked? it appears he took it down.
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Because shorts were harassing him.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I think this was the misconception that drove the stock up to $370s. I was under the same impression until I started digging around, the display screen Elon pointed to clearly stated “demonstrated 500 on all systems.” If anyone can find an actual 3,500/week number please help as I cannot find it myself. The next 5-7 days will be a nail bitter for both sides. I hope they pull it off as we still have time, but hope has gotten burnt too often, this time I’m playing it with caution.
No, man, it is not indicating anything. A lot of intended "leaks" going online just for a few minutes. Just to be noticed by public. But we don`t know for sure
Well, first of all tweets are never for sure so we always have to be careful with them.
However looking at his role at Tesla and what he tweeted before he does sound like a credible source to me. I did not see any other sources that credible.
He may did get a bad call from a Tesla lawyer and as a lot of responses are out there already closed the account for now to mitigate. The message is out anyway and cannot be deleted any more.
I hope he is fine though and does not get a problem. Seems to be a good hard working guy.
Also makes you wonder what in the world he was thinking tweeting about production numbers... You`d think he`d know that`s not for him to do. Generally speaking you don`t do that at any company unless authorized by management. I would imagine Tesla has also made this clear internally.
Why risk your job with sg like this? I don`t get it.
I hear you, we`ve been burned a couple of times reading too much into Tesla`s carefully worded communications. However, to me this was much more straight forward than the "demonstrated run rate" language before. And while it did not mean they have already produced 3,500/wk, this was from about 2 weeks ago, so i don`t think assuming 3,500+ for last week (at least) is a stretch.
And from anecdotal evidence it seems Canada was indeed the solution for the 200k issue. So I don`t think there was any deliberate slowing down of production and from all the bits and pieces, M3 ramp seems to be well on its way to 5k.
I don`t think we`ll get proof one way or the other until next week though.
I doubt Tesla has extensively warned it's employees about posting #'s. While I'm 100% confident production numbers will be good, the stock could go down anyway. It's highly unpredictable, and remember Q1 where numbers came in better than expected and than the conference call happened.
I work for a US multinational and stuff like that (not sharing any internal company data) is part of our standard employment contract language. I would NEVER dream of sharing any internal data, slides, production or sales figures. They would fire my a** on the spot.
It should be noted that Model 3 production at 5k is only break even. While it is a nice milestone it does not cover future obligations, much less provide funds to support expenditures needed for future growth. For me to be pleased I would like to see a push through 6k in the August time frame.
Call me jaded...due to the challenges Tesla has had in getting to 5k I am looking for some nugget or confirmation that Tesla can continue to ramp to 8k or higher. This is primarily due to lowered confidence in how quickly and easily Tesla has been able to ramp Model 3 production to date.
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That's for M3 to break even. S&X are throwing off cash and M3 continues to increase
Is that a solid data point, or only an assumed one based on 5k in Q3 and profit in Q3?
If the German tear down price of 28k is correct, and Tesla is selling at 49k, even with double the target 2k/car depreciation and 4k of labor per vehicle, that is 13k gross profit. With the typical 600M quarterly loss, they need 46k cars or 4k/wk to break even.
With the reduction in contractors and employee count along with R&D expense cut backs, the numbers should be even better.
This is assumed based on past statements highlighting the 5k milestone. No doubt this changes depending on the model margins being produced.
My point is that while 5k is a big achievement it does not cover Tesla's near term (6 months) or future obligations without continuing to utilize existing cash reserves.
I am anxious to see the path beyond 5k and what it will take to get there. Elon originally gave an impression that 10k was in the bag for later this year. Seeing the challenges Tesla has faced in getting to 5k I am hopeful that at least 8k can still be achieved at some point in time this year. If they cannot quickly ramp then some sort of capital raise will be necessary despite Elon's comments.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Canada Model 3 Deliveries
ValueAnalyst on Twitter
This is interesting. There a large variance in estimates for Model 3 deliveries in Canada: nobody really knows.
ValueAnalyst on Twitter
This is interesting. There a large variance in estimates for Model 3 deliveries in Canada: nobody really knows.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
I think we can at least bracket the number.
At least one and less than a million.
I feel very comfortable with that estimate.
In Fact, you can quote me on that.
At least one and less than a million.
I feel very comfortable with that estimate.
In Fact, you can quote me on that.
So only $400 million in revenue per year, or $100 million per quarter? Peanuts, I guess. ;-) I wonder what the true gross profit margin is there. Not huge, but could definitely be a help to cash flow.
As stated before I am not worried about GA3 and 4; with four lines, they'll be well over 5000/week quickly. The only bottlenecks which worry me are the paint shop and the other one Musk mentioned, getting the body line to sustain 5000/week reliably.
To be fair, the German price of 28 k$ based on the tear down of the 49 (54) k$ variant assumes weekly M3 deliveries at 10k.
By guidance, are you referring to the single project that is 1GWh? That would be on top of all the other PW PP SR installs...
Tesla teases a potential giant new record-breaking 1 GWh energy storage project to be announced soon
Or guidance of 1GWh in booked projects before this additional project?
Good to know, thanks!
Since my depreciation number was effectively at 2.5k/wk (if Deepak was referencing 2k/car at 5k/ week) and the labor number is likely waaaayyyyy high, I still put break even below 5k (when producing PUP/LR, D, and P variants).
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