Basically all hands on deck, and lets beat this 5k/week. You can't just put engineers on the line indefinitely, though. That's a poor use of resources. But for a period, while new workers are hired/trained, it should work.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
To me the key word is "occasional" battery shortage, which means there is no real shortage. In stead, the Panasonic guy is trying to make a point that Model 3 production is ramping up really fast.
Last edited:
This is actually a good investment in training. An engineer who actually assembles what he or she designs or has to modify is extremely valuable down the road. Engineers who sit at desks and insist on how a change should be implemented often have no clue that their fix is unworkable. Knowing what is involved in assembling anything makes it handy not only for changes but also for inspiring the engineers to come up with improved ways of accomplishing the task.
Hands on is invaluable experience and perhaps Elon even realized this while spending time sleeping at the plant. I bet there is more to what the engineers are doing than just more manpower to crank out product.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Actually when you configure (order), you get charged $2500, in addition to the $1000 that you paid at reservation. Both the $1000 and $2500 are non-refundable after ordering. This all go into customer deposit from what I heard. It doesn't count towards revenue until the car is sold, but contributes to cash.
Indeed. They way I interpret this is that the Panasonic part of the Gigafactory is producing below its peak rate. If it was producing at its peak rate, their storage buffers of cell would be full (or they would have an unreasonable inventory size) because pack production couldn’t consume them fast enough. As pack production increases, Tesla would share it’s production estimates to Panasonic so that they can make sure the cells are avaible when pack production needs it. But due to the unpredictability of the pack production ramp, there were probably moments in time where pack production increased faster than expected, causing empty buffers untill the Panasonic cell production had caught up.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
The upside is that they will increase the likelihood of hitting close to 5k, but it does then lend itself to the Tamberrino narrative that this is an unsustainable rate. Does anyone have an idea if this will impact margin or would these people already be paid for by other divisions?
Yeah, thanks for the correction. I just confirmed that now. It will interesting to see if this jumps significantly based on the opening up of all confirgures and the notice of data charges starting July 1st if not “ordered” by then.
I have seen that already yesterday but a production line would require that the full line is finished before you start producing regardless at what end of the line you look at, right?
Its just not possible that at one end the cars are rolling out and where the line supposed to start they are still constructing the line.....
It may be unsustainable in the short term, but as long as they continue improving the lines, automating more tasks and hiring/training more people, that unsustainable rate can become a sustainable rate in a matteer of days/weeks. And then the engineers can return to their regular jobs.
Regarding margin, my guess is that there will be a slight hit. But I don't think it will be particularly noticable.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think the 5k/wk rate could be sustainable if they don't pull the engineers out before they hire permanent production workers. When they hire and finish training them, those new people should be able to replace the engineers without slowing things down.
The engineers are probably drawing higher salaries than the regular production associates, so if Tesla pro-rates the engineers' salaries during the production time towards the labor cost of the car, then it will hit the M3 margin worse than using production associates. OTOH, that same pro-rated amount should be deducted from the cost of the line of business that those engineers came from, R&D, operations, etc. So there is no overall hit to the company's balance sheet.
It's likely that there are still frequent stops to improve the line. Then the scene at the line is completely different from one moment to the next, depending on what they are actually doing at any given time.
The president of an EV company in China essentially makes the case that destroys the short argument about a Tesla killer.
He essentially states that Tesla offers education about EVs and reassurance for those who doubt EV as a viable alternative to ICE.
He goes on to say (my interpretation ) what most Tesla advocates have repeated ad nauseam, which is that Tesla can't supply the demand alone so there are plenty of opportunities for other companies, but these companies have a better chance for success with Tesla leading the charge.
Shorts are about to be roasted, sliced up, chewed and then spit out.
XPeng Motors Says Tesla's Entry Would Help China's EV Market Grow
He essentially states that Tesla offers education about EVs and reassurance for those who doubt EV as a viable alternative to ICE.
He goes on to say (my interpretation ) what most Tesla advocates have repeated ad nauseam, which is that Tesla can't supply the demand alone so there are plenty of opportunities for other companies, but these companies have a better chance for success with Tesla leading the charge.
Shorts are about to be roasted, sliced up, chewed and then spit out.
XPeng Motors Says Tesla's Entry Would Help China's EV Market Grow
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Those used to count as deferred revenues, but from what I heard, accounting rules have changed and they count as customer deposit now. I could be wrong.
sub
Active Member
I've never tried to read Elons mood/words to time TSLA but he talked me into it today. Went longer than we already were after I saw the GS comment.
Added in my wife's retirement account so if I'm wrong she will be the one delaying retirment, not me. Win win!
Added in my wife's retirement account so if I'm wrong she will be the one delaying retirment, not me. Win win!
The difference is you talk about a finished line that is stopped and improved and restarted and I talked about a not finished line where you cannot start production yet.
My assessment concludes that the line is not finished and ready for production at the time of the recording of that video.
as to be expected:
#Tesla registered 2,237 new #Model3 VINs. ~99% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 56240.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
#Tesla registered 2,237 new #Model3 VINs. ~99% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 56240.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
Anything is possible. But Elon's clearly been steering the stock price through tweets and other communication. It's just as well possible that this is part of it.
Yes, you are. Go back to earlier quarterlies. Any car payment or realised value from a tradein before the car is actually transferred to the customer was always accounted for in customer deposit. And to @avoigt it was never accounted for in revenue. Only at the time that the car is actually delivered to the customer is the amount of the downpayment deducted from the customer deposit line and the full price of the car is added to revenue.
To make it as simple as possible
Q1.
- customer orders a car with a price tag of 100k. They pay 5k to Tesla at the time of order. It does not matter if order is refundable or not
- Tesla updates it balance sheet in two ways. Its cash holdings increase by 5k (that goes under Assets->cash&cash equivalents) and on the other side Tesla increases the liabilities in the same way as an increase of 5k under customer deposits.
- nothing happens in the Loss/Profit statement
Q2.
- customer receives the new car and pays 95k to Tesla
- Tesla updates it balance sheet once more. Its cash holdings increase by 95k (again under cash&cash equivalents), it's inventory is decreased for the value (to Tesla) of that car let's say 70k. Net increase = 25k. On the assets side Tesla decreases the customer deposits by 5k and increases the stockholders equity by 30k. Net increase = 25k
- Now Tesla updates the profit/loss statement. Revenue adds 100k, automative cost adds 70k. Gross profit increased by 30k (Well done, Tesla, now do it 4999 times over this week, please?)
My impression is that the line is sufficiently finished to produce cars. This is supported by the statements by Tesla saying they are producing cars on the line, the observations of cars moving down the line and exiting the line.
Is it completely finished? No. Is it producing high volume? Probably no. My guess is that GA2 and GA3 are doing maybe 500-600 cars/day and GA4 is doing maybe 50-100 cars/day.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Article
