Reciprocity
Active Member
They are not 50 miles. They are all closer to 1000 miles. I bought one. Every single one I looked at had over 800 miles. I got 18k of an S90 D with 1000 miles.
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They are not 50 miles. They are all closer to 1000 miles. I bought one. Every single one I looked at had over 800 miles. I got 18k of an S90 D with 1000 miles.
This is why the Bears are so mystified with the Bulls. "Vision" is typically something you give a company during the startup phase when it's on the path to a 1B+ valuation. It's typically not something valued much after an IPO.
You can't value "vision" while ignoring poor quality and execution problems.
I believe in Elon's EV vision. I think Tesla might be remembered as the company that went bankrupt while sparking a revolution.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Thank you for your contribution to improving the world, and congratulations on your upcoming losses. I hope you’ve only bet what you can afford to lose.
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I value the execution of his vision, got our Model X90D mid-2016, put 40k miles on it. Awesome every single day. This January, got our Model 3. Half the cost of a Model S and awesome just the same. Got a software update just yesterday that removed all issues I had with autopilot driver assist. There is no car like either from any other car-maker. I am looking forward to the jaguar i-pace, but I presume its going to be like a Bolt compared to a Model 3, more practical with a roofrack but without the daily awesomeness that goes beyond just being a car. Think replacing landlines with smartphones. I would never go back on either.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I strongly caution trusting a short over anyone.
Reciprocity
Active Member
My Outlook had not changed just because every yeah stock went down. They all went up last week. It's pretty clear that even though the ramp has not gone according to my wildest dreams, they have improved 50% every month. At that rate, they will get their soon enough. There is no need for a cap raise this year unless they want to accelerate production ramps to >5k or model Y.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla bulls can put together a better list of risks.
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For the last five years the most dependable anecdotal evidence of TSLA being at or near an important bottom has always been the sudden appearance on this message board of a plethora of previously unknown short sellers.
A) Trading a stock does nothing for the company post IPO and buying a car for less than it cost to produce doesn't either.
RE: financial numbers
B) Me and Moody's apparently. Unless you are want to abet the decisions of others who take your booster-ism to heart you may may to may want to go silent for awhile. The reason I still read this forum in part is to perhaps give pause to someone, anyone, that believing in an idea doesn't make sense if it's fulfillment is already priced in. People can get hurt, I'm short the stock but am not preaching that others do it for heavens sake. Although I did add based on VA's advice at $330.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Submitted, but was not accepted by Seeking Alpha, so published it in my service last week, but you can also see my posts from a couple of weeks ago in the 1Q 2018 Deliveries thread. Basis is a mix of all data points we have discussed. I don’t think the popularity logic holds for most other data points as much as for the month-over-month comparison of scheduled deliveries.
"Do all of us a favor and add to your short." Value Analyst 2 weeks ago
At $330 this was the best advice I've received for free. Thanks
Erm, not sure why my post was deleted when it's my material...?
My cost basis for shorts was 343 and bought put options when the stock was in the 350s.
I love Tesla. I believe in what Elon's trying to do. I believe the world needs EVs. I've loved the Tesla cars that I've been in. For a while, it was a literal dream of mine to buy a Tesla...
... but none of that changes that Tesla is in financial trouble. In Q4, they produced a record number of cars and still lost a record amount of money. And every data point indicates that the same will happen this quarter.
If Tesla is such a rockstar stock, why aren't they giving us more information? Why not share what percentage of reservations cancel, and what percentage converts? Why not share how many reservations still have active deposits? Why not share how many miles they've driven with autopilot on?
I've read this forum for a while, and this is the first time I've felt the need to just say "hey guys, take a breather."
Tesla is valued more than both Ford and GM, both of which are producing millions of cars each year.
When Tesla produces 250k cars/year, what would you say their stock price/company value should be at? And how do you justify that valuation in comparison to other automakers?
My cost basis for shorts was 343 and bought put options when the stock was in the 350s.
I love Tesla. I believe in what Elon's trying to do. I believe the world needs EVs. I've loved the Tesla cars that I've been in. For a while, it was a literal dream of mine to buy a Tesla...
... but none of that changes that Tesla is in financial trouble. In Q4, they produced a record number of cars and still lost a record amount of money. And every data point indicates that the same will happen this quarter.
If Tesla is such a rockstar stock, why aren't they giving us more information? Why not share what percentage of reservations cancel, and what percentage converts? Why not share how many reservations still have active deposits? Why not share how many miles they've driven with autopilot on?
I've read this forum for a while, and this is the first time I've felt the need to just say "hey guys, take a breather."
Tesla is valued more than both Ford and GM, both of which are producing millions of cars each year.
When Tesla produces 250k cars/year, what would you say their stock price/company value should be at? And how do you justify that valuation in comparison to other automakers?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Do all of us a favor and add to your short, again.
You are too reasonable. What's the opposite of preaching to the choir?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
LOL, glad to see a sense of humorWill you tell me when to cover?
cheers
Don’t worry; your broker will tell you when you’re forced to cover.
macro ..
China says Kim Jong Un has agreed to denuclearize Korean Peninsula
China says Kim Jong Un has agreed to denuclearize Korean Peninsula
thought Asian index are down till now .. actually only NIKKEI is down, but that might be OK, as it tends to go up on uncertainities
China says Kim Jong Un has agreed to denuclearize Korean Peninsula
China says Kim Jong Un has agreed to denuclearize Korean Peninsula
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China from Sunday to Wednesday on an unofficial visit, according to China's state news agency Xinhua.
- The visit was Kim's first known journey abroad since he assumed power in 2011.
- Analysts believe the visit was to serve as preparation for upcoming summits with South Korea and the United States
thought Asian index are down till now .. actually only NIKKEI is down, but that might be OK, as it tends to go up on uncertainities
Elon’s timelines might be often optimistic but even when he misses the timelines, his execution is still way above the legacy car makers. “Elon doesn’t know how to build quality car” is nonsense – he prefers to accelerate the process by exposing and fixing issues in production environment rather than “baking the process in non-production environment” for years. At the end his method will lead to higher quality and faster result.
I always thought Elon targeted 50% growth rate from the beginning and his capital spending etc. were throttled with that target in mind. To get 50% growth for the next two years, he only needs 100k M3s this year and 250k next year. Even with the delayed timeline these seem to be well within reach.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Exactly. In the last day or two X Yes, MattEnth, and all the low post count shorts crawl out of the wordwork and suddenly have some brilliant insight to offer. I just laugh. It's just way too obvious.
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