General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AudubonB]

The following is a general observation not on Tesla per se; rather on the world of autonomous driving, and obviously is in response to the unfortunate incident with Uber in Tempe AZ last week. It comes from a friend of mine who is nostril-deep in the hydrocarbon extraction sector, but who also has been greatly influenced by my implacable resolve towards Tesla. From a text of five minutes back:

These AVs are going to exact a lot of bloodshed before they get them working perfectly. Let's see if the public has thick enough skin to accomplish the task. The aviation industry killed many test pilots and support personnel getting aviation to where it is today

 

[Intl Professor]

I have relatives in IL and IA - states that don't seem to care too much about air pollution and its effects on their children. All that CARB's actions will do is protect itself, but allows the red states kill to their own young.

Is there anyway to stop Scott Pruitt from doing any more damage? By defanging the EPA, he's basically decided that having americans die so that polluters can make more money is perfectly acceptable. The EPA wasn't like this until he systematically gutted the agency from within. Is there anyway to remove him from power?!

He could be impeached, but not likely with this Congress.

 

[Intl Professor]

The following is a general observation not on Tesla per se; rather on the world of autonomous driving, and obviously is in response to the unfortunate incident with Uber in Tempe AZ last week. It comes from a friend of mine who is nostril-deep in the hydrocarbon extraction sector, but who also has been greatly influenced by my implacable resolve towards Tesla. From a text of five minutes back:

These AVs are going to exact a lot of bloodshed before they get them working perfectly. Let's see if the public has thick enough skin to accomplish the task. The aviation industry killed many test pilots and support personnel getting aviation to where it is today

Also a lot of passenger plane crashes from which we learned.

 

[Mike Smith]

Blog post from Tesla:

What We Know About Last Week's Accident

 

[Time]

"My fellow cult-members, ask not what your Tesla shares can do for you, ask what you can do for your Tesla shares"

"Do you hear that Mr. Short-Seller? That is the sound of inevitability..."

- J. F. Anderson, Matrix President

But for real though...glad we are finally getting this beating. Been stressing out about it coming for months. Reminds me of getting your wisdom teeth pulled...you know the date is coming...you know the pain is coming...by the time the day rolls around, you want those mother-f***ers out.

"JUST DO IT!!!"

- Billy Madison (Adam Sandler)

 

[bdy0627]

"My fellow cult-members, ask not what your Tesla shares can do for you, ask what you can do for your Tesla shares"

"Do you hear that Mr. Short-Seller? That is the sound of inevitability..."

- J. F. Anderson, Matrix President

But for real though...glad we are finally getting this beating. Been stressing out about it coming for months. Reminds me of getting your wisdom teeth pulled...you know the date is coming...you know the pain is coming...by the time the day rolls around, you want those mother-f***ers out.

"JUST DO IT!!!"

- Billy Madison (Adam Sandler)

I needed that laugh! Thanks.

 

[Mike Smith]

CNBC is covering the Tesla blog post but not actually showing the post or providing a link to it - they only provide one small part. I guess they don't want people to know that Teslas are 500% less likely to catch fire than gas cars, or that the US government found Autopilot reduces accidents by 40%.

Tesla defends Autopilot record after Feds launch investigation into fatal crash

 

[SteveG3]

CNBC is covering the Tesla blog post but not actually showing the post or providing a link to it - they only provide one small part. I guess they don't want people to know that Teslas are 500% less likely to catch fire than gas cars, or that the US government found Autopilot reduces accidents by 40%.

Tesla defends Autopilot record after Feds launch investigation into fatal crash

some information about the NTSB's field investigation you are not likely to see in the media,

"The Investigative Process
The National Transportation Safety Board was established in 1967 to conduct independent investigations of all civil aviation accidents in the United States and major accidents in the other modes of transportation. It is not part of the Department of Transportation, nor organizationally affiliated with any of DOT's modal agencies, including the Federal Aviation Administration. The Safety Board has no regulatory or enforcement powers.

To ensure that Safety Board investigations focus only on improving transportation safety, the Board's analysis of factual information and its determination of probable cause cannot be entered as evidence in a court of law.

..."

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/process/Pages/default.aspx

 

[SteveG3]

CNBC is covering the Tesla blog post but not actually showing the post or providing a link to it - they only provide one small part. I guess they don't want people to know that Teslas are 500% less likely to catch fire than gas cars, or that the US government found Autopilot reduces accidents by 40%.

Tesla defends Autopilot record after Feds launch investigation into fatal crash

As Phil LeBeau has been quite informed and even handed about Tesla relative to the rest of "coverage" of the company, perhaps, we could politely suggest to him adding a link to Tesla's blog. Perhaps mention how helpful/interesting the 5:1 stat re the odds of a fire in an ICE vs a Tesla.

Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) | Twitter

 

[Intl Professor]

macro ..
China says Kim Jong Un has agreed to denuclearize Korean Peninsula

China says Kim Jong Un has agreed to denuclearize Korean Peninsula

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China from Sunday to Wednesday on an unofficial visit, according to China's state news agency Xinhua.
• The visit was Kim's first known journey abroad since he assumed power in 2011.
• Analysts believe the visit was to serve as preparation for upcoming summits with South Korea and the United States

thought Asian index are down till now .. actually only NIKKEI is down, but that might be OK, as it tends to go up on uncertainities

Confirmation from a NYT article citing official China News sources:

Kim Jong-un Met With Xi Jinping in Secret Beijing Visit

Operative:

"Mr. Kim told the Chinese leader that he was open to dialogue with the United States, including a potential summit meeting with President Trump, and was committed to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, according to an account published by China’s news agency Xinhua."

The rest is mostly background. My hope continues to be that Kim and Moon are set to conclude a peace treaty, with stipulations spelled out consistent with the above. Moon seems to be determined to achieve reconciliation and Kim has a lot to gain. I hate to say this, but if peace and stability is the denouement, Trump's bad guy approach is vindicated, even the surprise appointment of Bolton may have been part of the scenario. More on a more appropriate thread later.

 

[RobStark]

Germany at Odds With France Over Tariffs on U.S. Cars

According to Bloomberg citing the European Commision tariffs on US trucks and pickups coming into Europe is 14%. Again symbolic because, with a tiny exception, Europeans don't want to buy American trucks.

 

[Mike Smith]

As Phil LeBeau has been quite informed and even handed about Tesla relative to the rest of "coverage" of the company, perhaps, we could politely suggest to him adding a link to Tesla's blog. Perhaps mention how helpful/interesting the 5:1 stat re the odds of a fire in an ICE vs a Tesla.

Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) | Twitter

Bloomberg is doing the same thing. Won't talk about reduced fires and reduced accident rate with Autopilot. They provide some sort of link to the blog post but it requires you be a subscriber to 'Professional Service', so basically nobody can see it.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

A) Trading a stock does nothing for the company post IPO.

You sure about that? I seem to recall companies issuing equity post-IPO. I wonder how they value that equity.

 

[Mike Smith]

Looks like Norway March deliveries are going to be double last years. I'm sure at least a few people in the financial news media are aware of this (they must employ at least a couple actual journalists between them), but they choose not to report it. It's not like these numbers are guesses - they're official registration numbers from the Norwegian government. They had their misconstrued stories of a 'slowdown' on their front pages, yet they won't report the actual numbers. I think Tesla should bite the bullet and start paying these companies for advertising. Don't even run ads - just pay them their money to get fair coverage, reducing dilution from future equity raises.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Looks like Norway March deliveries are going to be double last years. I'm sure at least a few people in the financial news media are aware of this (they must employ at least a couple actual journalists between them), but they choose not to report it. It's not like these numbers are guesses - they're official registration numbers from the Norwegian government. They had their misconstrued stories of a 'slowdown' on their front pages, yet they won't report the actual numbers. I think Tesla should bite the bullet and start paying these companies for advertising. Don't even run ads - just pay them their money to get fair coverage, reducing dilution from future equity raises.

I am sure shorts and their press will compare it to the previous quarter and talk about the fall in demand... vs comparing it to the same period last year.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Looks like Norway March deliveries are going to be double last years. I'm sure at least a few people in the financial news media are aware of this (they must employ at least a couple actual journalists between them), but they choose not to report it. It's not like these numbers are guesses - they're official registration numbers from the Norwegian government. They had their misconstrued stories of a 'slowdown' on their front pages, yet they won't report the actual numbers. I think Tesla should bite the bullet and start paying these companies for advertising. Don't even run ads - just pay them their money to get fair coverage, reducing dilution from future equity raises.

True, but I find it more meaningful to watch at the entire Q1: Jan and Feb this year were lower than last year.
As of this moment:
* 18Q1 is 1312, +33% from 17Q1
* we reached 24000 Tesla in Norway!
* progression of Qs looks good to me.
*

 

[Mike Smith]

True, but I find it more meaningful to watch at the entire Q1: Jan and Feb this year were lower than last year.
As of this moment:
* 18Q1 is 1312, +33% from 17Q1
* we reached 24000 Tesla in Norway!
* progression of Qs looks good to me.
* View attachment 289866

Q3,Q4 2017 were hugely inflated because Norwegians were rushing to buy EVs when they thought they were about to lose a tax break. Most of those extra sales were pulled forward from this quarter, so it's really amazing that we're up this quarter vs last year.

 

[Mike Smith]

Bloomberg Vin counter just raised to 1026/wk

 

[mutle]

Bloomberg Vin counter just raised to 1026/wk

FYI, for me it is showing 964. The numbers seem to vary even when viewed at the same time.

 

[schonelucht]

A) Trading a stock does nothing for the company post IPO

That's a very limited take on Tesla. For starters. Tesla ability to hire and retain engineering talent in a highly competitive market depend for a significant part on its stock based compensation plans. Tesla also engaged in a lot of warrants and hedges in combination with convertible debt based around very specific stock prices. It's future cash position may be significantly affected on individual trader's decisions. That's just two, but highly visible, effects out of many more.