There is an interesting gap in VINs reported between about ~18550 and ~19800. Nothing has been reported in this range even though VINS higher than 19800 have been reported since April 12. I haven't really seen this pattern before on the VIN chart. One theory is that initial documentation/regulatory issues with Canadian M3 cars are holding up VIN assignment. It is possible that the above VIN gap represents cars destined for Canada. If that is the case, then VIN assignment data is underestimating current production levels.
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There is an interesting gap in VINs reported between about ~18550 and ~19800. Nothing has been reported in this range even though VINS higher than 19800 have been reported since April 12. I haven't really seen this pattern before on the VIN chart. One theory is that initial documentation/regulatory issues with Canadian M3 cars are holding up VIN assignment. It is possible that the above VIN gap represents cars destined for Canada. If that is the case, then VIN assignment data is underestimating current production levels.
mickificki
Member
IMO a lot of these hedge fund managers, ceo’s, etc grew up always being the smartest person in school, at home etc.
So when they hear about this uber brilliant guy who wants to change the world for the better while still making money for investors, they cannot fathom that there’s someone out there who’s THAT much smarter than them.
I have a few coworkers who think like that. Very smart guys who just think it’s so implausible that one guy can do all this, they think he’s a fraud.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
2.5 weeks ago people were asking about the gap between 15800 and 17400. Hypothesis was that these were Canadian VINs. But we're seeing those VINs now. I think we're reading too much into this.
That looks like a 3 day gap at most?! Even if we take out a week for factory shutdown... that still leaves 10 day gap for the 18500-19800 range. I recognize that folks could have back-filled entries since on the 15800-17400 gap. But we should also be seeing that by now for the current gap.
Great suggestion and I completely agree! This forum has great potential to influence and we should do what we can to realize that potential.
1. We hear news as fast as anyone, and the analysis we do here are much more comprehensive and deeper than anywhere else I see. I think serious investors including large institutions all regularly come to this forum to gain insights.
2. Tsla cars are so unique and loved by owners that I think a large portion of them is intrigued enough to want to learn about it as investment opportunity. This forum can play a big role in educating this audience. Most of the current owners are relative well off so they can easily invest more than what they spent on the car. tsla has produced roughly 300K cars with asp roughly 100k so the total is 30B. I can easily imagine the scenario that total tsla car owners collectively invested more than 10B on tsla stock. This is a huge amount (bigger than Tencent, Fidelity, and any other single institution!) and that is US - YOU and ME! With his amount of money tied to this forum, the messages we post here matter...a lot.
One thing I find frustrating is that there are constantly posts that encourage "timing the market" - there maybe a few who are really smart/lucky to come on top but majority fail and are taken advantage of by shorts and various market manipulators. Even for those who are ahead so far, it is a dangerous game that one day the train will leave the station fast. For those who are worried about short term, buying puts or selling calls can provide protection. I have the fantasy that if none of us sell any shares in the next 12 months, the shorts will be paying the next round funding for model y, semi, and roadster.
There is something else. Another way to view it.
The expert spent his life working for bean counters - customer is a very distant consideration (look at Ford safety record) compared to...
Engineers working for Elon.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Maybe true, but the previous gap is filled due to 2 color batches with 18" wheels, otherwise it would've been 1 week in length. There may be something different with this new gap, or it could be just some color batches waiting on 18" wheels
Looks like that prior gap really started to fill out after 7-8 days. I will give Tesla some benefit of the doubt due to the shutdown. But if we don't see this gap fill up Mon/Tues this week, something is up imo.
Very helpful context. This would explain Skeptic’s frequent comparison of TSLA to ENE. Perhaps finding the next ENE ‘in medias res’ is a professional goal. He zeroed in on TSLA too quickly and is now stuck in an iterative maelstrom, unable to swim free.
Again, thank you for the context. In my mind I can now rehabilitate him to the category of “possibly misguided,” rather than have him sinking into the category of “feckless mercenary.”
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Fair enough. I'm very much interested in seeing what this gap turn out to be, don't really care if I turn out to be wrong about this
Good reviews for Model 3 keep on coming! This guy compares his new car against his previous 5:
r/teslamotors - First Impressions
Now that a few Model 3 made it to Germany, the first media have gotten their hands on it
and seem to be impressed. Auto Motor Sport (third largest car magazine in Germany) has
a review in the current print version which is reportedly very positive (which is surprising EV
enthusiasts); Autozeitung (4th largest) has an online review:
Tesla Model 3 (2017): Test | autozeitung.de
Via google translate:
They always find something small to nag about but looking at where they are coming
from, I think this is a very good review.
r/teslamotors - First Impressions
Now that a few Model 3 made it to Germany, the first media have gotten their hands on it
and seem to be impressed. Auto Motor Sport (third largest car magazine in Germany) has
a review in the current print version which is reportedly very positive (which is surprising EV
enthusiasts); Autozeitung (4th largest) has an online review:
Tesla Model 3 (2017): Test | autozeitung.de
Via google translate:
They always find something small to nag about but looking at where they are coming
from, I think this is a very good review.
Maybe go to the Annual Meeting and get in line for the Q&A in front of the Super-geniuses that want to be Vice Chairman?
Some responses from Tesla to Sandy Munro's comments after his tear down of the Model 3 (from the end of the linked Motor Trend article)
"Statement on vehicle age
“The primary car evaluated by Munro was built in 2017. We have significantly refined our production processes since then, and while there’s always room for improvement, our data already shows that Model 3 quality is rapidly getting better.”
Statement on panel gaps and offsets
“Since we began shipping Model 3 last year, we have been very focused on refining and tuning both part and body manufacturing processes. The result being that the standard deviation of all gaps and offsets across the entire car has improved, on average, by nearly 40%, with particular gap improvements visible in the area of the trunk, rear lamps and rear quarter panel. Today, Model 3 panel gaps are competitive with Audi, BMW, and Mercedes models, but in the spirit of relentless improvement, we are working to make them even tighter.”
Statement on body weight/complexity
“The U.S. government found Model S and Model X to have the lowest probability of injury of any cars it had ever tested, and Model 3 was designed with the same commitment to safety. While there’s always room for refinement of cost and mass, which we are already improving, electric cars have unique safety requirements to prevent intrusion into the battery, and Model 3 was also designed to meet the latest small overlap front crash requirements that other reference vehicles may not have. We stand behind our physical crash testing and our computer simulations of it, which have been remarkably accurate, and the safety that they demonstrate. The safety of our customers is more important than any other metric.” "
Tesla Model 3 Teardown: Deconstructed 3 - Motor Trend
"Statement on vehicle age
“The primary car evaluated by Munro was built in 2017. We have significantly refined our production processes since then, and while there’s always room for improvement, our data already shows that Model 3 quality is rapidly getting better.”
Statement on panel gaps and offsets
“Since we began shipping Model 3 last year, we have been very focused on refining and tuning both part and body manufacturing processes. The result being that the standard deviation of all gaps and offsets across the entire car has improved, on average, by nearly 40%, with particular gap improvements visible in the area of the trunk, rear lamps and rear quarter panel. Today, Model 3 panel gaps are competitive with Audi, BMW, and Mercedes models, but in the spirit of relentless improvement, we are working to make them even tighter.”
Statement on body weight/complexity
“The U.S. government found Model S and Model X to have the lowest probability of injury of any cars it had ever tested, and Model 3 was designed with the same commitment to safety. While there’s always room for refinement of cost and mass, which we are already improving, electric cars have unique safety requirements to prevent intrusion into the battery, and Model 3 was also designed to meet the latest small overlap front crash requirements that other reference vehicles may not have. We stand behind our physical crash testing and our computer simulations of it, which have been remarkably accurate, and the safety that they demonstrate. The safety of our customers is more important than any other metric.” "
Tesla Model 3 Teardown: Deconstructed 3 - Motor Trend
Ulmo
Active Member
Went by Tesla. Lots of 3’s. Mostly at the Fremont delivery center; factory product lots mostly empty. Saw one transporter full of 3’s leaving South. Employee lots full (Saturday!).
Wait until you actually get your own Model 3. It's mind blowing. ICE cars, regardless of their price range, have no chance to compete with the Model 3. After the Q1 result, I will sell other assets and buy more TSLA shares.
2virgule5
Member
Put the neighbor in mine today. He now wants his wife to try it. I give them less that a week before they put a deposit down.
K_Dizzle
Member
Couldn’t we act as a single fund in terms of rep
I feel like when even the longs are expecting a dip after earnings were due for a big upside suprise. The balls in your court Elon.
Well, EM has said recently about the health of the company (and I insinuated the SP of TSLA): 'Place your bets'. (personally I am standing pat through the ER)
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Elon does have a tendency to look at the long term. Occasionally we get a "stormy weather" tweet but that one was referring to a price movement that has already occurred. I don't know if it's kosher for Elon to tweet about near term stock price movement.
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