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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Well, today was quite the day for Norway, they surpassed the 25000 milestone.
And if tomorrow goes as today, May 2018 will achieve May 2017 results: in just 5 days.

I don't think it makes sense to compare non-US deliveries like that. We know they changed their delivery strategy so ofc these numbers will be higher, but last month of the Q might be lower (hopefully not!). Until 2019 the only comparable metric will still be quarterly deliveries, not monthly.
 
Got my Model 3 a week ago.

Between me and my wife, I was the Tesla fan boy, the one standing in line to order that car no one has ever seen, the one that would defend elon musk whenever there is an argument. My wife watched all these with amusement, not understanding what got into my head.

Until we got our car. She likes the car more than I do. She now draws hatred when bragging about the car to her friends, cause she likes to say something like "too bad you can't have it, not in two years"
 
German science is so very precise .
The graphic and likely the article behind it are far from precise. I have actually done the math based on a german refinery.

The refinery Burghausen, according to their own statement a very modern refinery in Germany (see https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der ... eutschland ). Has published the following statement: http://www.emas.de/fileadmin/user_uploa ... d-GmbH.pdf

According to that they used 2016 roughly 20770007 GJ which would be 6231002 MWh (see page 28). They used that to create 4037536 t products of oil. That would mean it takes them 1.54 MWh to produce 1ton of goods. Now it that would be Diesel only (Diesel is only 1/4 of the products that would mean the use 1.2KWh of electric power to produce 1L of Diesel. Lets say a mid range Diesel car uses 6L of Diesel per 100km. This would mean that to produce the Diesel 7.2KWh electric Energy is needed at the refinery. A Model 3 (16.9 kwh/100km) would drive drive 43km (or 43% of the 100km distance of comparison) just on the juice that is needed to produce the Diesel. This does neither include transport from wherever the oil has surfaced nor transport to the pump or into the car.

So wherever this comes from: Its clearly wrong!
 
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customer deposits (is Tesla using customer deposits for liquidity? or can we find enough evidence that they're specifically not doing that? Either would be interesting)

Of course they are. There is nothing wrong with that either.

The Semi wasn't even mentioned in the Q1 letter (seriously, do ctrl+f). The 10-Q now lists it as a pipeline project and does not give a firm date (quote below).

The Model Y and Roadster also weren't mentioned in the Q1 letter.

Never mind what is in the shareholder letter. It's better to look at spending guidance, which was cut quite some ways. New products with the exception of the Solar Roof are all pushed out.
 
Assuming 12 weeks per quarter (allow for shutdown for maintenance), 5k/wk M3, $58k ASP, M3 will contribute $3.77b revenue per quarter. At 20% margin (Q4), it contributes 754m gross profit.

Caveats:
  • Q3 margin is known, we may have better idea after Q2
  • 2H'18 ASP may be higher that $58K due to D and P models
  • Q4 production volume likely higher than 5k/wk
Thats different numbers than the ones i commented on.
But lets look at your assumptions:
> 5k M3/week - Yeah, maybe maybe not no one knows so i agree with that
> 58k ASP - seems pretty high, but would not rule it out, but im pretty sure it wont be even higher than that
> 3,77b revenue - no argument here
> 20% gross margin - They guided for that, but they routinely miss their guidance, so lets see but its possible
> that would lead to 754kk gross profit

But the main thing is gross proft is not net profit, and for Tesla its even further apart because of their unique way of calculating it.
When you go back to the times where S and X had above 20% GM and Model 3 was not yet weighing on the income statement, Tesla did still not make a profit. So im pretty certain that 20% GM (if they reach it) is not enough for net profit.
 
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