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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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So are you now making up a bear story from a potential 1 day difference?


10-K: Based on our current progress, we are targeting a production rate of 2,500 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of the first quarter of 2018 and 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of the second quarter.

10-Q: We continue to target Model 3 production of approximately 5,000 per week around the beginning of July 2018.
 
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One of shorts fav argument is that Tesla is Enron and Musk is Skilling (some even call him Enron Musk). Shorts say Musk had a Skilling moment on the Q1 call (Skilling had called an Analyst a**hole on the call publicly).

This stock buy proves otherwise and should worry shorts because while Skilling and Lay were dumping stock at the peak of Enron (signalling they knew the company was in shambles), Elon goes ahead and buys even more. His compensation plan also has major stock awards in the future. Tesla !=Enron at all.
 
My guess is that Musk bought shares instead of exercising options because if he had exercised options, he may have needed to sell shares to cover taxes. So the headlines would have been "Musk sells shares worth XXX million - Tesla going bankrupt soon?".

But I guess, if Tesla actually needed money, Musk could exercise his options - that would bring some fresh cash into the company. Not a lot, but more than nothing.
 
One of shorts fav argument is that Tesla is Enron and Musk is Skilling (some even call him Enron Musk). Shorts say Musk had a Skilling moment on the Q1 call (Skilling had called an Analyst a**hole on the call publicly).

This stock buy proves otherwise and should worry shorts because while Skilling and Lay were dumping stock at the peak of Enron (signalling they knew the company was in shambles), Elon goes ahead and buys even more. His compensation plan also has major stock awards in the future. Tesla !=Enron at all.
<tinfoil hat>
Musk has so much money and only bough like less than 1% of the shares traded that day, it's clear he is trying to Skill the market and will dump all his shares at ATH before Tesla goes bankqupt.
</tinfoil hat>
No matter what happens with Tesla, there will always be a way to turn it into a negative :rolleyes:
 
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Got my Model 3 a week ago.

Between me and my wife, I was the Tesla fan boy, the one standing in line to order that car no one has ever seen, the one that would defend elon musk whenever there is an argument. My wife watched all these with amusement, not understanding what got into my head.

Until we got our car. She likes the car more than I do. She now draws hatred when bragging about the car to her friends, cause she likes to say something like "too bad you can't have it, not in two years"
I'm in the same situation and I bet my wife reacts this way as well once I get mine. :)
 
The difference isn't massive between the end of the second quarter, which could be said is June 30th, and the beginning of July, which could be said is July 1st. Even interpreting it in the worst way, the target is only pushed out around two weeks.

Tesla promised 5,000 M3 at the end of 2007
Tesla then promised 5,000 at the end of first Q 2018
Tesla then promised 5,000 at the end of second Q 2018
Tesla now softens the target again...(See above)

To say it in Elon‘s words: They are "tiptoing quietly to the exit"
 
Tesla promised 5,000 M3 at the end of 2007
Tesla then promised 5,000 at the end of first Q 2018
Tesla then promised 5,000 at the end of second Q 2018
Tesla now softens the target again...(See above)

To say it in Elon‘s words: They are "tiptoing quietly to the exit"
I can't recall the target ever being 5000/week at the end of Q1. But sure, the Model 3 ramp has taken more time than expected, thus far, and it's still not quite there yet.

But indications are they are currently at something like 3000/week. Already at this point, the bleeding will in large part have stopped. And going from 3000/week to 5000/week doesn't require as much effort as going from 1000/week to 3000/week. Quality has improved, the bottlenecks have mostly been identified and addressed. Now they just need to add some more people to the line, and work out a few remaining kinks.

Then, profit and positive cash flow. And from there, Tesla will only improve.
 
3xKona on Twitter
3xKona (@3xKona) hat getwittert:
Hope most people noticed the most important thing in WSJ article on $TSLA - no big news coming anytime soon, or Musk would violate insider trading rules. So any of his "short squeeze" theories are forward looking, likely to Model 3 production goals in Q3. 3xKona on Twitter

I don't know much about inside trading rules. I guess there is is s truth in this. What's the bull statement to this?
 
I don't know much about inside trading rules. I guess there is is s truth in this. What's the bull statement to this?
Does there need to be a bull statement?

All the speculation surrounding various deals is just that, speculation. In my view, there's no big news coming soon, and I'm quite bullish. I think we could be at 400 before the end of Q2.
 
Interesting global EV report from Alix Partner:

E-Mobilität - Deutschland weit abgeschlagen :: DMM Der Mobilitätsmanager

Conclusion:

"The ranking of (EV) manufacturers shows that established Auto Producers are lagging heavily behind China's competition as well as Tesla. In the top 20 you find only two established companies: BMW on rank 19 and Renault/Nissan at 20."
 
Tesla promised 5,000 M3 at the end of 2007
Tesla then promised 5,000 at the end of first Q 2018
Tesla then promised 5,000 at the end of second Q 2018
Tesla now softens the target again...(See above)

To say it in Elon‘s words: They are "tiptoing quietly to the exit"
projected , targeted , though never promised, that’s your bull sh
 
The graphic and likely the article behind it are far from precise. I have actually done the math based on a german refinery.

The refinery Burghausen, according to their own statement a very modern refinery in Germany (see https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der ... eutschland ). Has published the following statement: http://www.emas.de/fileadmin/user_uploa ... d-GmbH.pdf

According to that they used 2016 roughly 20770007 GJ which would be 6231002 MWh (see page 28). They used that to create 4037536 t products of oil. That would mean it takes them 1.54 MWh to produce 1ton of goods. Now it that would be Diesel only (Diesel is only 1/4 of the products that would mean the use 1.2KWh of electric power to produce 1L of Diesel. Lets say a mid range Diesel car uses 6L of Diesel per 100km. This would mean that to produce the Diesel 7.2KWh electric Energy is needed at the refinery. A Model 3 (16.9 kwh/100km) would drive drive 43km (or 43% of the 100km distance of comparison) just on the juice that is needed to produce the Diesel. This does neither include transport from wherever the oil has surfaced nor transport to the pump or into the car.

So wherever this comes from: Its clearly wrong!
Of course it’s nonsense masqueraded as scientific analysis.
Though under the aura of German scientific truth it takes the
Appearance of fact.
 
Musk's Tesla Share Purchase a 'Statement Move,' Analyst Says

Pierre Ferragu (analyst who recently came out with a $530 TSLA target) speaks calmly and realistically as he debunks Bloomberg presenter’s concern toned ~”but, what of Elon not answering analyst’s questions?” repetition of misleading narratives we’ve heard many times in bear/media presentations.
 
I still need to go through and figure out the relationships between cash and customer deposits (is Tesla using customer deposits for liquidity? or can we find enough evidence that they're specifically not doing that? Either would be interesting)

" Prepayments on contracts that can be cancelled without significant penalties, such as vehicle maintenance plans, have been reclassified from deferred revenue to customer deposits. Refer to the Automotive Revenue and Automotive Leasing Revenue sections below for further discussion of the impact on various categories of vehicle sales."

About $59 million of the $135 million increase in Customer Deposit was caused by the accounting reclassification.
 
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