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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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It seems to be a reflection of human nature and possibly life in general. When some thing is fresh and new, all is possible and full of hope. But over time, as it grows in function and utility, the "thing" matures. Then aberrant behavior starts to sprout up that begets more aberrations. Eventually, the aberrations overrun the "thing" and suffocates the life out of its host. Like a cancer.
Yes and when the leader of the "free" world uses it like a middle school boy it does not help at all.
 
Voluntarily joining *this* military, with its record of corrupt foreign invasions based on lies, abuse of prisoners, and so forth, is in my opinion actually a sign of either lack of wisdom (not noticing / not realizing) or lack of ethical standards (not caring). I'm sure this statement is going to tick a lot of people off, but it's the truth, many disillusioned veterans agree with me, and I will not discuss it further.

With all due respect @neroden, it really hurt me to read that. Especially coming from someone I have grown to respect so much on this board. One of the main reasons there actually are disillusioned veterans is because WE learn things in our 30's, 40's, and 50's that we were not exposed to in our teens and early 20's.....not because we knew everything in our youth PRIOR to serving and then 'unethically' serve anyways as you suggest. Yes, I eventually became a disillusioned veteran, but I am also a Naval Nuclear Reactor Operator / Desert Storm veteran and Panama veteran who received the Southwest Asia Service Medal, an Admirals Letter of Commendation, 4 Commanding Officers Letters of Appreciation, earned a degree while in the military, and was one of the very few who had a perfect score on the physical fitness tests my last two years of service. I was a farm kid who gave my best to the service because I was conditioned by my environment to believe it was a good thing to serve, and by a family with a long line of service. My mother was even a proud Daughter of the American Revolution. As the oldest of 5 children I worked at least 40 hours per week on the family farm all the way through high school while doing my best to help my siblings so my Dad could work a 2nd job. What information do you think I had readily at my disposal that I must have consciously ignored to display such a 'lack of wisdom'? A desire to escape the farm and see the world was on my mind at that age, and like most small town kids, Clint Eastwood and movies like Top Gun were just a little bit more popular than reading Noam Chomsky in the small amount of free time we had.

So while I may have become a disillusioned veteran in my later years as I traveled the world with a backpack, raised a daughter, went back to school (where I finally got to read Chomsky since his works were not standard military issue), and worked to gain a desired level of social and environmental awareness and consciousness that didn't fully develop as an overworked rural farm kid or while i was in the Navy, it honestly took those later years to get there. And my story is far from unique, especially among enlisted members of the armed services. But the integrity and the ethical standards you suggest were not part of the foundation of those that chose to serve were exactly what I believe propelled me to spend an entire career working to improve our resources in the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the National Marine Fisheries Service & NOAA, and with the US Fish and Wildlife Service. And it was those same ethical and moral beliefs that led me to jump with both feet into my investment with Tesla and hold on for the long haul.

Since I consider you a person with a high degree of critical thinking skills it is very confusing to me how you arrived at such a concept, unless perhaps your argument is void of a consideration of age or different social classes? The only thing you mentioned that makes sense to me is when you stated that you would not want to discuss it further. If you don't discuss it further, I do hope you take the time to consider it further. And if you do consider it further I am hopeful you will arrive in a much different place regarding your thoughts on some of the youngest and most junior members of the armed services, and how they got there. Many of us had very calloused hands before we ever got to Boot Camp, or even out of high school.
 
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With all due respect @neroden...

Since I consider you a person with a high degree of critical thinking skills it is very confusing to me how you arrived at such a concept, unless perhaps your argument is void of a consideration of age or different social classes? The only thing you mentioned that makes sense to me is when you stated that you would not want to discuss it further. If you don't discuss it further, I do hope you take the time to consider it further. And if you do consider it further I am hopeful you will arrive in a much different place regarding your thoughts on some of the youngest and most junior members of the armed services, and how they got there. Many of us had very calloused hands before we ever got to Boot Camp, or even out of high school.

An admirably restrained and articulate response. Well done.
 
The superiority of the 3 is hard to comprehend for people until they drive one. That does change everything.

The very high reservations seem as far as we know to stay very high at least that is what Tesla Management confirmed a couple of times. If they would feel like they need to do a little for demand they would have plenty of options but it looks like there is no need.

Its a unique situation in history we have here and another strategic mistake that media and automakers to name just 2 are making by believing, this its just that one pile of reservations and after worked through it will go down.

My prediction is that the amount of reservations and orders will grow as a function of 3s on the road and Tesla capabilities to build and deliver more cars per week.

A good illustration of experiencing the car is the conversation of a Bull and a Bear in the attached Podcast. The Bull has a Tesla since a month the Bear not and it sounds never drove one. Its like two people are talking about a different company.

The interesting part starts at Minute 42 unless you are a Netflix investor like me (2nd largest holding) you may want to listen to the start as well.


P.S. intersting find, they made a calculation of the 3 costs before the German tear down and came to $28k too
 
A good illustration of experiencing the car is the conversation of a Bull and a Bear in the attached Podcast. The Bull has a Tesla since a month the Bear not and it sounds never drove one. Its like two people are talking about a different company.

The interesting part starts at Minute 42 unless you are a Netflix investor like me (2nd largest holding) you may want to listen to the start as well.


P.S. intersting find, they made a calculation of the 3 costs before the German tear down and came to $28k too

Also nice hearing a Tesla bull and bear having a rational conversation. :)
 
A good illustration of experiencing the car is the conversation of a Bull and a Bear in the attached Podcast. The Bull has a Tesla since a month the Bear not and it sounds never drove one. Its like two people are talking about a different company.

The interesting part starts at Minute 42 unless you are a Netflix investor like me (2nd largest holding) you may want to listen to the start as well.


P.S. intersting find, they made a calculation of the 3 costs before the German tear down and came to $28k too

Be careful about this Quoth the Raven guy, in 2015 he was strongly supporting Ackman's points to short HLF, but their arguments were obviously wrong. I remember he wrote lots of convincing articles why HLF was a good short. Later HLF more than tripled.

He also strongly supports Chanos and Montana's arguments why Tesla is a great short. If you don't have a good understanding of the companies, these guys could persuade you to switch from long to short.
 
Be careful about this Quoth the Raven guy, in 2015 he was strongly supporting Ackman's points to short HLF, but their arguments were obviously wrong. I remember he wrote lots of convincing articles why HLF was a good short. Later HLF more than tripled.

He also strongly supports Chanos and Montana's arguments why Tesla is a great short. If you don't have a good understanding of the companies, these guys could persuade you to switch from long to short.

I've read and heard them three and I think the raven is less aggressive and more into critical thinking. He makes valid points, but his main mistake is on the blurry lines and probabilities. For example, on the impact of the EV credit end on demand. You can estimate it either way, but I think that Ross's main point, at the end, is that you need to try the car. I haven't tested it, but having read and heard so many people saying it that it is a game changer after driving it; I believe it would be a mind-changer for many real bears (not the salaried ones).
 
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Blech. Bluntly, if you're filtering for people with both a good heart and a good brain, giving preference to people who voluntarily joined the US military in recent decades is very much the wrong way to do it. Voluntarily joining *this* military, with its record of corrupt foreign invasions based on lies, abuse of prisoners, and so forth, is in my opinion actually a sign of either lack of wisdom (not noticing / not realizing) or lack of ethical standards (not caring). I'm sure this statement is going to tick a lot of people off, but it's the truth, many disillusioned veterans agree with me, and I will not discuss it further.

Anyway, I hope Tesla has hiring/interviewing practices which actually find the right sort of people.
whoa, did not expect this here


Man hiring military is one of the most patriotic things a company can do. Many (not all by any means) who enter the military do so out of need and/or lack of understanding what they are agreeing to. They serve time learning a skill that (most times) doesnt really translate to many career paths. Other, typically more fortunate, individuals spend those years learning a skill or creating a career. So when many vets come back from serving, the thanks they receive is 'your not worth training'. The irony is ex military are often very easy to coach compared to a spoiled college kid (I am/was the latter)


I feel bad for many vets and think they are treated rather poorly in general, I do like when I see companies hiring vets and offering training that many companies won't spend the money to do.
 
Hello everyone, I’m not sure what to think of this but it’s been several weeks since Tesla changed its VIN assignment, yet we still haven’t gotten the mad rush end of the quarter invites I was hoping for. With only 8 days left in the quarter this is a concern for me. Is there anyone else out there who shares this sentiment, or are we not concern about this?
 
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Hello everyone, I’m not sure want to think of this but it’s been several weeks since Tesla changed its VIN assignment, yet we still haven’t gotten the mad rush end of the quarter invites I was hoping for. With only 8 days left in the quarter this is a concern for me. Is there anyone else out there who shares this sentiment, or are we not concern about this?
wondering this myself, seems like holding off on the 200k vehicle doesnt make sense.

Troy had a good answer in the model 3 delivery spreadsheet thread, best reasoning i have seen.

12-28-17 New Invite / Configuring / Delivery Spreadsheet
 
Hello everyone, I’m not sure want to think of this but it’s been several weeks since Tesla changed its VIN assignment, yet we still haven’t gotten the mad rush end of the quarter invites I was hoping for. With only 8 days left in the quarter this is a concern for me. Is there anyone else out there who shares this sentiment, or are we not concern about this?
They did about two days ago, see link. It's not a concern for you, I assure you. They've just started to load up first week of July deliveries (big time).
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter
 
They did about two days ago, see link. It's not a concern for you, I assure you. They've just started to load up first week of July deliveries (big time).
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter

Yea I saw they registered 2,060 vins with NHTSA about 3 days ago, but vin assignment has been sparse. Does anyone have information or a link that shows deliveries picking up or new batches of invites being sent out? If so please provide me a link, I’ve tried searching the Model 3 forums this morning but haven’t been able to find much.
 
Hello everyone, I’m not sure want to think of this but it’s been several weeks since Tesla changed its VIN assignment, yet we still haven’t gotten the mad rush end of the quarter invites I was hoping for. With only 8 days left in the quarter this is a concern for me. Is there anyone else out there who shares this sentiment, or are we not concern about this?
They did about two days ago, see link. It's not a concern for you, I assure you. They've just started to load up first week of July deliveries (big time).
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter
 
Yea I saw they registered 2,060 vins with NHTSA about 3 days ago, but vin assignment has been sparse. Does anyone have information or a link that shows deliveries picking up or new batches of invites being sent out? If so please provide me a link, I’ve tried searching the Model 3 forums this morning but haven’t been able to find much.

You're asking in wrong thread - see here:
Highest production VIN in the wild
 
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I could see why Tesla or any production oriented company might find veterans an attractive pool of talent. They can be better disciplined, in ordinary work handle long hours, and some of it (combat) must be as stressful as things can get. We have known since the '50s from studies of returning POWs that the marines and Turkish troops were more resistant to propaganda because they were taught to fight in order to protect their buddies, not some idealistic ideological purpose like defense of democracy. Hence, teamwork is crucial in combat, as in industrial production or any enterprise. Further, they are often trained in very useful skills and more mature because more experienced at life and death.

College graduates are often faulted by business for lack of skill in group efforts. In an effort to correct this many of us insist on exercises in group effort built into our courses. In my experience, top students hated it. Wise students learned leadership skills, some from below, others from the top.

On wisdom and youth. Hopefully we make fewer errors as we age. A wise man once suggested when I worried about a woman friend who was older if she could profit from psychotherapy, "older people have fewer illusions," he said. As an example in my case as a student leader at a technical university I wanted to go to war with the Soviet Union during the tragedy of the Hungarian revolution and Soviet invasion of 1956. Though a naive engineering student I did notice it passing strange Radio Free Europe urged the rebels to continue because help from the Yankees was on the way. Eisenhower had no appetite for war with the Soviet Union though he had campaigned initially on "rolling back communism in Eastern Europe."

My disillusion with U.S. foreign policy came with graduate education and subsequent disastrous interventions abroad and at home. Some of those events were deeply held secrets at the time, though soldiers in combat may have experienced them earlier than the rest of us. That is on our leaders and a crappy electoral system, especially the part where the parties choose candidates as evidenced in the last general election. There is a serious structural problem aside from money in our system. The evil is faction as well understood by the founders. Our parties compete at winning elections, not at putting the nation's best interest first. (Nonetheless, I do not believe the parties are equally guilty of abusing public trust. In light of recent Trump tantrums using children as hostage for a border wall, my immigrant wife on viewing this tragedy spontaneously says "how can you put God on your money in this country?" Frankly, if I were a traditional religious person I would think Trump is the anti-Christ, or at least a wannabe.)

Finally, there is a sad truth about being a soldier. I know of no other profession where the business of killing is the point, although some of our police are confused on this. Equally, in the soldiering business your opponent has the same goal so you are really setting yourself up to die. I was taught that by an Israeli general interviewed on TV. When mentioned in classes, my students in the military or ROTC really disliked the idea. They will find out, not the hard way, I hope.

I'm sure this rubs many in the wrong way. However, to quote George Bernard Shaw, "The nation's morals are like their teeth. The more decayed they are, the more it hurts to touch them."
 
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