General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

I'm not going to take anyone saying this below seriously

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Papafox did claim yesterday he heard from 2 independent sources that 5K are a done deal which would resonate with the message from Pedro.

How credible is Pedro? Can some who has background info shed some light on it?

 

[schonelucht]

The GF target is 35GWh/yr. That means 1% waste would be 350MWh of cells. Let' say manufactured cell cost is $100/KWh, of which half of that is materials.

GF target is 150GWh. Obviously you must compare current scrap with current production.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I'm not going to take anyone saying this below seriously

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Pedro Rezzarno on Twitter
"Tesla production hit 680 today. Times 7 that is 4,760 per week. By Mid July they’ll hit 800 per day.

We won!!!

Thoughts?

 

[jelloslug]

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[scaesare]

GF target is 150GWh. Obviously you must compare current scrap with current production.

"current target" is what I was referring to.

 

[Waiting4M3]

For those who like to micro-manage Tesla's M3 production:

 

[mershaw2001]

Honestly, the day that elon says we can go work for free at the fremont factory we'd all be there- imagine if hundreds of us showed up ready to go....

 

[Waiting4M3]

Honestly, the day that elon says we can go work for free at the fremont factory we'd all be there- imagine if hundreds of us showed up ready to go....

That'll probably be the last straw driving Elon to take Tesla back private, having hundreds of investors nagging him constantly

 

[ggies07]

Honestly, the day that elon says we can go work for free at the fremont factory we'd all be there- imagine if hundreds of us showed up ready to go....

Yep! I said back in Jan/Feb time that I would go there and build my own damn standard battery if they would let me. It would have been quicker to sit me in a corner and put the cells in myself, than the fiasco that happened with their module lines. I'd have the car by now!....still having to wait until the end of the year when they open that version.

SO WHATEVER GETS MY CAR FASTER, I WILL DO IT. I'd take off work and fly tomorrow if I could.........

 

[SunCatcher]

Honestly, the day that elon says we can go work for free at the fremont factory we'd all be there- imagine if hundreds of us showed up ready to go....

Dear Elon; We'll be your Huckleberries.

The Fence in The Adventures of Tom Sawyer

From "The Adventures of Tom Sawyer" by Mark Twain;

People remember the fence scenario it because it's so clever. Tom tricks a bunch of boys into thinking that work – the thing that he doesn't want to do – is fun, so that he can spend the afternoon goofing off. He even get the boys to pay him for the "privilege" of painting. Everybody dreams of this kind of thing.

Twain provides his own analysis of the situation.

Tom said to himself that it was not such a hollow world, after all. He had discovered a great law of human action, without knowing it – namely, that in order to make a man or a boy covet a thing, it is only necessary to make the thing difficult to attain. If he had been a great and wise philosopher, like the writer of this book, he would now have comprehended that Work consists of whatever a body is obliged to do, and that Play consists of whatever a body is not obliged to do.

Well, there you go. A little bit of philosophy for you. And strategy! You go Elon!

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - today:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - UPDATE: Source Familiar Tells Benzinga Tesla's Service Revenues Haven't Grown In Tandem With Service COGS, As Noted By Bernstein In This Morning's Note, Because They Relate Only to 'Out of Warranty' Jobs Which 'Haven't Grown Much'

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - UPDATE: Source Familiar Tells Benzinga Tesla Recording Services Infrastructure Costs As Service COGS Is 'Appropriate', Ensures Comparability Of Auto Margins With Traditional OEMs That Don't Incur Similar Service Capacity Costs

 

[Dennisj00]

With all due respect @neroden, it really hurt me to read that. Especially coming from someone I have grown to respect so much on this board. One of the main reasons there actually are disillusioned veterans is because WE learn things in our 30's, 40's, and 50's that we were not exposed to in our teens and early 20's.....not because we knew everything in our youth PRIOR to serving and then 'unethically' serve anyways as you suggest. Yes, I eventually became a disillusioned veteran, but I am also a Naval Nuclear Reactor Operator / Desert Storm veteran and Panama veteran who received the Southwest Asia Service Medal, an Admirals Letter of Commendation, 4 Commanding Officers Letters of Appreciation, earned a degree while in the military, and was one of the very few who had a perfect score on the physical fitness tests my last two years of service. I was a farm kid who gave my best to the service because I was conditioned by my environment to believe it was a good thing to serve, and by a family with a long line of service. My mother was even a proud Daughter of the American Revolution. As the oldest of 5 children I worked at least 40 hours per week on the family farm all the way through high school while doing my best to help my siblings so my Dad could work a 2nd job. What information do you think I had readily at my disposal that I must have consciously ignored to display such a 'lack of wisdom'? A desire to escape the farm and see the world was on my mind at that age, and like most small town kids, Clint Eastwood and movies like Top Gun were just a little bit more popular than reading Noam Chomsky in the small amount of free time we had.

So while I may have become a disillusioned veteran in my later years as I traveled the world with a backpack, raised a daughter, went back to school (where I finally got to read Chomsky since his works were not standard military issue), and worked to gain a desired level of social and environmental awareness and consciousness that didn't fully develop as an overworked rural farm kid or while i was in the Navy, it honestly took those later years to get there. And my story is far from unique, especially among enlisted members of the armed services. But the integrity and the ethical standards you suggest were not part of the foundation of those that chose to serve were exactly what I believe propelled me to spend an entire career working to improve our resources in the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the National Marine Fisheries Service & NOAA, and with the US Fish and Wildlife Service. And it was those same ethical and moral beliefs that led me to jump with both feet into my investment with Tesla and hold on for the long haul.

Since I consider you a person with a high degree of critical thinking skills it is very confusing to me how you arrived at such a concept, unless perhaps your argument is void of a consideration of age or different social classes? The only thing you mentioned that makes sense to me is when you stated that you would not want to discuss it further. If you don't discuss it further, I do hope you take the time to consider it further. And if you do consider it further I am hopeful you will arrive in a much different place regarding your thoughts on some of the youngest and most junior members of the armed services, and how they got there. Many of us had very calloused hands before we ever got to Boot Camp, or even out of high school.

All I can say to you and other Vets here is Thank You for your service!

 

[neroden]

With all due respect @neroden, it really hurt me to read that. Especially coming from someone I have grown to respect so much on this board. One of the main reasons there actually are disillusioned veterans is because WE learn things in our 30's, 40's, and 50's that we were not exposed to in our teens and early 20's.....not because we knew everything in our youth PRIOR to serving and then 'unethically' serve anyways as you suggest.

I debated over how to write that. It's hard to phrase it politely yet accurately.

I agree with what you wrote, and I think most people who joined our deeply corrupted military *didn't* understand what they were joining -- I think the vast majority, like you, were ethical but unwise.

Indeed, most people in their teens and early 20s have a lack of wisdom. You aren't disagreeing. I think it's unethical for the government to recruit teenagers for the military, and I think they're doing it *because* of the lack of wisdom of teenagers. If the military had to recruit people over 30 only, they might have to be more careful about starting wars.

That said, I knew better by the age of 18 -- I'd learned about everything from the 19th century US interventions in South America to the Vietnam War to the invasion of Grenada (condemned by the UN) and US military support for apartheid South Africa and the Contras in Nicaragua -- which makes it hard for me to empathize with those who didn't know better, though I can sympathize intellectually.

Although I was certainly lucky to have a background which made it easy for me to get information, I also actively sought out information, as I always have. So it is hard for me to sympathize with those who made decisions without doing their research. I spent a long time as a child working out the ethics of under what circumstances I would be willing to be in the military (Civil War on the Union side: yes; Indian wars: no, and then everything in between), and I spent a lot of time studying the news and history and seeking out multiple viewpoints. I remember specifically debating selective service registration, and concluding that I wasn't actually agreeing to anything by registering; I was just enabling them to find me. I decided if a draft was instituted and the military as an insitution was still being fundamentally unethical then I'd go to prison before serving -- and I probably would have, because they would be unlikely to accept my conscientious objection. I have the *utmost* respect for the Vietnam war resisters who openly refused to serve and went to prison, arguably the hardest and most ethical decision to make, and one made by very, very few.

I understand that many people grew up in isolated areas with little access to information, but public libraries and newspapers were common nationwide long before the 1980s; perhaps you were in an area which lacked a library, I don't know. Practically anyone in the US could have been reading the New York Times headlines, and it was widely recommended by schoolteachers. NPR didn't start its decline until the 2000s. The information was out there, and while I know I should be sympathetic to those who did not do their research, at a deep level, I find it very hard to be sympathetic to that, particularly for a decision as ethically serious as "Should I kill people when ordered to".

Veterans should get full compensation for damages done to them by the US government, and like all Americans should have full health care, and shouldn't be discriminated *against*. But having made a major mistake due to lack of wisdom as a youth shouldn't get anyone *enhanced* access to jobs; if you are actually giving veterans an advantage in hiring, you're discriminating against the people who knew better than to join the military -- and that's not a good hiring strategy if you want wise employees.

The reason it's so hard to say things like this politely while being accurate is that people want to think of their service in the military as service to the country; it causes an emotional reaction when you are told that you were defrauded and it was not actually service to the country, as Smedley Butler said. I don't want to hurt you, but it hurts. It hurts to realize that the US military has been primarily used for essentially immoral purposes for most of its history.

OK. That's it. I really don't want to go into this further, but I wanted to make it clear where I'm coming from. I am genuinely offended by programs which give job advantages to military veterans -- but not to conscientious objectors who became political prisoners, of course -- which discriminate against the wiser and braver.

 

[Todd Burch]

Aaaand...this veteran has added Neroden to his ignore list.

Can’t stand the enormous ego and the complete lack of tact anymore.

Sorry if this gets me banned. It had to be said.

 

[JRP3]

I appreciate the fact that he has the balls to express what most would see as an unpopular opinion.

 

[FlyNavy01]

I apologize for partly contributing into taking this thread off on a tangent earlier. At the end of the day we all have opinions and that's okay with me.

Steering us back on track, it was confirmed through a few owners today that the latest firmware update has begun to arrive in some Model 3's which includes Summon, Wi-Fi, and Cabin Overheat protection. Constant improvements are always a positive sign to me (even if non-production related). I think this now brings the Model 3's to parity with the current S & X software if I'm not mistaken.

I loaded up some more shares today and still hope to see the SP rise through ATH sometime in July.

 

[Yuri_G]

"At Fremont until late tonight, Giga tomorrow, Fremont Sunday. GA4 is great, but have to say that GA3 crew is pulling off miracles against all odds."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Gotta be inching closer...

 

[Dennisj00]

Something you probably won’t see in the national news and FUD - today at Carowinds - a local theme park, 12 or so cars were engulfed in flame in the parking lot - fortunately no one was hurt and I didn’t see a Tesla in the bunch so it’s a non-event.

 

[Navin]

Speaking of Chanos

 

[Krugerrand]

In fact, we can sponsor a test drive for our favourite real bear, @CuriousSunbird. Maybe he/she will join the light side of the force...

If I remember correctly, he’s not a car guy but a finance guy. The car could spit out rainbows and butterflies and he wouldn’t be able to reconcile his thoughts about the numbers.

You actually have to be ready, willing AND able or there is no lightbulb moment.