General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

My impression is that the line is sufficiently finished to produce cars. This is supported by the statements by Tesla saying they are producing cars on the line, the observations of cars moving down the line and exiting the line.

Is it completely finished? No. Is it producing high volume? Probably no. My guess is that GA2 and GA3 are doing maybe 500-600 cars/day and GA4 is doing maybe 50-100 cars/day.

Just for clarity. The video was posted on Twitter from an aggressive Short trying to show that the line does not produce cars at June 26th. What I tried to clarify with my posts is that the video is very likely (as explained) old and not done at June 26th in an attempt to mislead media, shorts, longs and readers.

I am fully with you that cars are produced in the "tent structure" already. We have videos that do prove this.

 

[schonelucht]

Just for clarity. The video was posted on Twitter from an aggressive Short trying to show that the line does not produce cars at June 26th. What I tried to clarify with my posts is that the video is very likely (as explained) old and not done at June 26th in an attempt to mislead media, shorts, longs and readers.

I already told you : the very first seconds of the video, the camera captures a print out of an article on an independent website that came out on 6/26. The video is therefore NOT old and done on June 26th at the earliest.

Edit: Maybe I am on ignore for @avoigt. Maybe someone else should point it out then.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Just for clarity. The video was posted on Twitter from an aggressive Short trying to show that the line does not produce cars at June 26th. What I tried to clarify with my posts is that the video is very likely (as explained) old and not done at June 26th in an attempt to mislead media, shorts, longs and readers.

I am fully with you that cars are produced in the "tent structure" already. We have videos that do prove this.

Ah, I believe the video was made on June 26th. I see nothing in the video that suggests they wouldn't be able to produce 50-100 cars/day on the line.

My impression is that chassis come from the paint shop and are loaded onto the line from the opening on the side of the tent, which at 50-100 cars per day and 16 hour days would have to happen every 10-20 minutes on average. Then they start moving down the line, and exit the other side of the tent as finished cars.

 

[avoigt]

I already told you : the very first seconds of the video, the camera captures a print out of an article on an independent website that came out on 6/26. The video is therefore NOT old and done on June 26th at the earliest.

Edit: Maybe I am on ignore for @avoigt. Maybe someone else should point it out then.

Well, its a free country.... Would be my first ignore ever ;-)

As I said its very easy to fake that so called prove. And its evidently not the first time that he posts a video claiming a wrong date.

For me he is not a source we should trust. But no emotions on my side here. Feel free to trust him!

P.S. there are strong indications the video that it has been modified right between the part with the concrete background and the so called date stamp and when the real video starts. Normally you would show a newspaper and have what you video right in the background. That is hard to modify.

P.S.S. lets close that matter as it does not add value to an investor discussion any more!

 

[schonelucht]

As I said its very easy to fake that so called prove. And its evidently not the first time that he posts a video claiming a wrong date.

I think you are letting your biases cloud better judgment here.

 

[tlo]

The president of an EV company in China essentially makes the case that destroys the short argument about a Tesla killer.
He essentially states that Tesla offers education about EVs and reassurance for those who doubt EV as a viable alternative to ICE.
He goes on to say (my interpretation ) what most Tesla advocates have repeated ad nauseam, which is that Tesla can't supply the demand alone so there are plenty of opportunities for other companies, but these companies have a better chance for success with Tesla leading the charge.

Shorts are about to be roasted, sliced up, chewed and then spit out.

XPeng Motors Says Tesla's Entry Would Help China's EV Market Grow

A good analogy for this is the smartphone market. The iPhone destroyed Nokia and Blackberry sales, but also created opportunities for upstarts like Huawei and Xiaomi.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Why are you ignoring the suggestion to get a 2nd hand first production Model 3 at the end of this year?

IMHO I believe 2nd hand first production Model 3 will resell at a premium or an par over original Tesla price for at least a year. And in buying 2nd hand, you lose the Tax Credit or Rebate Incentive.
Last January the Government of Ontario, Canada limited the $14k CAD EV Rebate to vehicles <$75k MSRP. Effectively this increased the resale value of all existing MS and MX owners by $14k CAD.

True story: Back in '83 my next door neighbour bought a new Honda Prelude and sold it after three years for more than he paid. Just say'n. It is possible.

 

[elliott82]

Well, its a free country.... Would be my first ignore ever ;-)

As I said its very easy to fake that so called prove. And its evidently not the first time that he posts a video claiming a wrong date.

For me he is not a source we should trust. But no emotions on my side here. Feel free to trust him!

P.S. there are strong indications the video that it has been modified right between the part with the concrete background and the so called date stamp and when the real video starts. Normally you would show a newspaper and have what you video right in the background. That is hard to modify.

P.S.S. lets close that matter as it does not add value to an investor discussion any more!

Did someone download the video and can forward it to me? I work in VFX and could try to find any manipulation. I have some means to do it.

edit: nevermind, found it on youtube, will take a look at it tonight

 

[avoigt]

News from Ighor:


Jeffrey Yu‏ @drjeffyu
@ihors3 Ihor what is the current borrow rate for TSLA shares?

Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted Jeffrey Yu


$TSLA instituional stock borrow rates has continued to ease .. seeing stock borrow fees between 2.25% and 3.50% - retail rates will be higher.

 

[Ulmo]

Looks to me like the image of the car coming off is from the other side of the tent. Look at the wall to the right. There is no wall to the right on the bear video snapshot.
View attachment 312945

Those pictures don't look real: the car that came off the line is smaller than the guy and the other car standing next to it.

 

[kbM3]

I'm investing more in TSLA because of Elon's "short burn of the century" tweet.

I'm also debating exit plans if the rise is dramatic and very high.

Would love to get other's thoughts and plans.

Short burn of the century strategy

 

[kbM3]

I can confirm this. Last night they opened up AWD/P for all day one folks. Today they opened up *everything* for what seems like *everyone*. My in-laws have a 4/1/16 res that can order all options tonight, and I have a 2nd res, placed 5/14/18, that can do the same. I've seen several Reddit reports of folks across the time spectrum that are in now, too.

I think this, combined with the incentive to order by 7/1 to keep premium internet for the life of the car, combined with the fact that everyone is seeing 3-5 month delivery estimates (which takes them close to the end of the full tax credit), combined with the fact that the P has been unbundled and will therefore see more uptake, is huge.

They very well may be able to announce many tens of thousands of *confirmed orders* when Q2 deliveries are announced. May very well be close to all of 2018 sold out, at 5k/week.

You're oh so close. They'll announce they're sold out at 7.5k/week, to trigger the short burn

 

[avoigt]

I found this link on Reddit which gives some good insight pictures if an how you could use the tent like structure as a car manufacturer.

Not really any difference in my opinion to a production in a brick&mortar building.

Manufacturing Facilities, Equipment Enclosures - Sprung

 

[avoigt]

Berenbank visited the GF and keeps the target at $500

"He has now more clarity how they dealt with the bottlenecks. His confidence has grown..."

Berenberg belässt Tesla auf 'Buy' - Ziel 500 US-Dollar

 

[Rarity]

On Monday, the court granted Tesla's request for a document preservation subpoena on Apple, Microsoft, and Google for Tripp documents.

On Tuesday, Tesla requested a document preservation subpoena on AT&T Wireless, Facebook, WhatsApp, Open Whisper/Signal, and Dropbox.

11 Main

 

[ggr]

Mod: we have enough reports of people ordering Model 3s now. Any more (in the pinned threads) without other content will be summarily deleted. --ggr

 

[sundaymorning]

Lots of information on Trip. He doesn’t want an attorney bc they’ve quoted him $300-400k, down payment of $50k he says he “doesn’t have.”

After subpoenaing Apple in trade secrets case, Tesla goes after Facebook – Ars Technica

The subphoena is to get FB, Apple to turn over downloaded data I believe.

 

[Remus]

Lots of information on Trip. He doesn’t want an attorney bc they’ve quoted him $300-400k, down payment of $50k he says he “doesn’t have.”

After subpoenaing Apple in trade secrets case, Tesla goes after Facebook – Ars Technica

The subphoena is to get FB, Apple to turn over downloaded data I believe.

Wow, he is abandened so quickly!

 

[MP3Mike]

Lots of information on Trip. He doesn’t want an attorney bc they’ve quoted him $300-400k, down payment of $50k he says he “doesn’t have.”

After subpoenaing Apple in trade secrets case, Tesla goes after Facebook – Ars Technica

The subphoena is to get FB, Apple to turn over downloaded data I believe.

No, those subpoenas are just for those companies to put a hold/lock on all of Tripp's data so it doesn't get lost/deleted.

They will have to get separate subpoenas to actually discover/get the data.

 

[avoigt]

I have been asked before to post information about the sentiment in Germany and Europe and am happy to do that from time to time.

Obviously this is very subjective and not representative at all but given that I do every day a search in the same manner the error margin should be reduced.

Today I can happily confirm that I do pick up an uptick in the sentiment. Don't get excited that may be the other way around tomorrow again!

Reports include:

Positive

• Manager Magazin M3 test drive - very positive from a Magazine very negative ever since
• EPCS racing car a pimped P100D
• Model 3 now cheaper, configuration is open for all
• Supercharger network achieves new record ins Europe, all renewable energy (Wing, Solar)
• Elon hits back to Analysts "awakening"
• Positive chard technical and stock related comments
• Pick up truck news
• Daimler Semi news - rather positive phrase for Tesla (double the range)
• Tesla competition is delaying EVs

Negative:

• Teslas cars burning and start again after days of crash, uncertainty about dangerous Batteries
• Batterie production shortage
• And all the other narrative we know.... already

Boards here are full of Shorts and Bears so I listen sometimes in to get insights. Extremely negative sentiment there so they seem not to see the signs.....

Glad to see that the sentiment is improving a bid but honestly we have been on such a low level before there was almost no downwards space left....