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Gigafactory locations and products

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The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
  1. Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
  2. Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)
  3. 4680 cell production: (8 lines * 25 GWh/yr/line = 200 GHh/yr by end-of-year)
Other minor construction projects at Giga Texas include the new End-of-Line facility now under construction on the West quarter, and The Boring Tunnel between it and the main factory on the East side of the highway. These will ease workflow and logistics, which are enablers and cost control measures when high prod volume is achieved.

With the addition of these facilities, Giga Texas will have the following nominal vehicle capacity:
  1. Cybertruck: 333K/yr w. 123 KWh Cybertruck (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
  2. Model Y: 500K/yr w. 82 KWh structural pack (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
  3. Model 2: 2M/yr w. 41 KWh (100 GWh/yr cells req'd)
All this will take more than 1 year, esp. considering the Model 2 ramp which will start in a year. However, the Market should see this coming like the tide (or a tsunami). I expect Giga Texas alone to produce 2.8M+ cars in 2026 (fully ramped). Then, the Model 2 / Gen 3 lines will be cloned simultaneously in Germany, Shanghai, and Monterrey, MX. This brings Tesla to 10M/yr capacity by 2027/28. Build more GA space at the new factories and clone these lines once more to build Robotaxi, which then takes Tesla to 20M/yr by 2030. Done and dusted.

This is before Gigafactory India (yet to prove themselves able to work at Tesla speed for a high volume car). So 20M/yr prod capacity shouldn't be considered the limit: if Toyota insists on foot-dragging, then Tesla builds Giga Osaka.

Did I mention Tesla Semi for China and Europe? How about 1 Megapacktory per region? How about 6? All staffed at a ratio of 10 Teslabots : 1 Human produced at the 10M/yr 'bot factory at Giga Nevada. Obviously, this leaves significant prod. capacity to grow a retail 'bot division. The cost of labor is going down...

Cheers!
 

Is there any good information available on Berlin Phase 2.?

Seems like a big construction project..
follow Tobias Lindh on X if you wish to keep up with the GigaBerlin news.

https://twitter.com/tobilindh/with_replies

I believe the latest is that expansion plans are still going through the approval process - there are multiple approvals being performed. Expansion of phase 1, then the phase 2 construction permit to follow after. Here's some of the latest:

 
Latest GigaIndia updates. Key takeaways:

“If it works out, this will the biggest foreign direct investment commitment in India. Tesla will invest $3 billion in the plant and other partners in its manufacturing ecosystem will invest another $10 billion. In parallel, there will be another $5 billion investment in batteries that will grow to $15 billion. We are looking at a total of $30 billion,” said a person close to the company and involved in discussions on the project."

"Within India, Tesla is considering four major auto manufacturing hubs to set up its plant -- Haryana (which will help cater to the biggest market in NCR), Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. But given the major plans for export, it is likely that, if it does invest, Tesla may opt for a coastal state in the west or south."

*So Tesla is NOT set on Gujarat.

2 SOURCE LINKS...



The $30 billion number is too hard to believe..
 
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Reactions: Musskiah
Latest GigaIndia updates. Key takeaways:

“If it works out, this will the biggest foreign direct investment commitment in India. Tesla will invest $3 billion in the plant and other partners in its manufacturing ecosystem will invest another $10 billion. In parallel, there will be another $5 billion investment in batteries that will grow to $15 billion. We are looking at a total of $30 billion,” said a person close to the company and involved in discussions on the project."

"Within India, Tesla is considering four major auto manufacturing hubs to set up its plant -- Haryana (which will help cater to the biggest market in NCR), Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. But given the major plans for export, it is likely that, if it does invest, Tesla may opt for a coastal state in the west or south."

*So Tesla is NOT set on Gujarat.

2 SOURCE LINKS...


 
  • Informative
Reactions: Christine69420
$30 BILLION starts to make sense when we see how the Indian government wants to buildout the ecosystems of "[energy] storage" and chip manufactuing around Tesla. Over 80% (CEO Alex Karp said 84%) of the most valuable tech companies on earth are currently US borne. As the manufacturing tech giants, like Apple and Tesla, move from China to India, this is the chance for India to develop state-of-the-art infrastructure and manufacturing base. This is a big moment for India. I now have a feeling the politics surrounding GigaIndia negotiations may end up moving along more slowly than Berlin was built...

SOURCE: India, US addressing Pannun controversy; Tesla awaits EV policy for entry: Mukesh Aghi

On the much anticipated electric vehicle (EV) major Tesla’s entry into India, Aghi, who was in India briefly to participate in the Vibrant Gujarat Summit recently, said that there is no discussion on the same as Tesla is awaiting India’s EV policy and that the company’s entry would involve a strong chip manufacturing ecosystem and not just a battery ecosystem. Edited excerpts:

"You have what is called a geopolitical alignment. The US companies want to secure the supply chain. That is driving the relationship. The access to each other’s market is critical. Another factor is the five million Indian American population in the US. They comprise 1.5 per cent of the population but generate about six per cent of the gross domestic product. So they are affluent and are deeply engaged in political appointments too.

There hasn’t been a discussion on Tesla. Tesla is waiting for government policy to come. But we have to look at Tesla not just purely from the EV perspective but from the perspective of how it can build an ecosystem for chip manufacturing.

A Tesla car requires around 2,000 chips. And if they plan to have a production facility to manufacture five lakh cars, think about the ecosystem. Tesla’s storage technology is world-class. So once the government policy gets streamlined, Tesla may come in. But there is no discussion at the moment."
 
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When Nintendo made the Wii, they purposefully left themselves production constrained.
Tesla is a different beast, but consider this:
Cost per vehicle is BOM + labor per car + overhead per car
BOM drops a little with volume and overhead per car drops fairly linearly with volume. However, labor does not have so easy a trend line because it (typically) gets added in full shifts.
Say one shift fully utilized makes C cars at a labor cost of L/C per car.
Bump production 20%, now a full additional shift is needed (unless you go with irregular scheduling). So you have 2L/1.2C = 1.67L/C, a 67% increase in labor cost per car. Berlin has labor rules which make additional shifts even more disadvantageous so it's >2L.

The 17% reduction in factory overhead per car isn't going to make up for that, especially considering factory overhead is really a constant that gets amortized at the end so there are no savings in volume. There is also the step change of stamping and casting capacity to deal with.

To optimize margin, Tesla wants to get demand aligned with maximum output of the current shift capacity. A small increase in demand beyond that works against them. Either wait time starts increasing or they bump up pricing to reduce demand. Only when there is a large amount of excess demand does shift adding make sense. Cybertruck's backlog definitely supports multiple shifts.