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The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
Other minor construction projects at Giga Texas include the new End-of-Line facility now under construction on the West quarter, and The Boring Tunnel between it and the main factory on the East side of the highway. These will ease workflow and logistics, which are enablers and cost control measures when high prod volume is achieved.
- Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
- Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)
- 4680 cell production: (8 lines * 25 GWh/yr/line = 200 GHh/yr by end-of-year)
With the addition of these facilities, Giga Texas will have the following nominal vehicle capacity:
All this will take more than 1 year, esp. considering the Model 2 ramp which will start in a year. However, the Market should see this coming like the tide (or a tsunami). I expect Giga Texas alone to produce 2.8M+ cars in 2026 (fully ramped). Then, the Model 2 / Gen 3 lines will be cloned simultaneously in Germany, Shanghai, and Monterrey, MX. This brings Tesla to 10M/yr capacity by 2027/28. Build more GA space at the new factories and clone these lines once more to build Robotaxi, which then takes Tesla to 20M/yr by 2030. Done and dusted.
- Cybertruck: 333K/yr w. 123 KWh Cybertruck (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
- Model Y: 500K/yr w. 82 KWh structural pack (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
- Model 2: 2M/yr w. 41 KWh (100 GWh/yr cells req'd)
This is before Gigafactory India (yet to prove themselves able to work at Tesla speed for a high volume car). So 20M/yr prod capacity shouldn't be considered the limit: if Toyota insists on foot-dragging, then Tesla builds Giga Osaka.
Did I mention Tesla Semi for China and Europe? How about 1 Megapacktory per region? How about 6? All staffed at a ratio of 10 Teslabots : 1 Human produced at the 10M/yr 'bot factory at Giga Nevada. Obviously, this leaves significant prod. capacity to grow a retail 'bot division. The cost of labor is going down...
Cheers!
follow Tobias Lindh on X if you wish to keep up with the GigaBerlin news.
Is there any good information available on Berlin Phase 2.?
Seems like a big construction project..
Latest GigaIndia updates. Key takeaways:
“If it works out, this will the biggest foreign direct investment commitment in India. Tesla will invest $3 billion in the plant and other partners in its manufacturing ecosystem will invest another $10 billion. In parallel, there will be another $5 billion investment in batteries that will grow to $15 billion. We are looking at a total of $30 billion,” said a person close to the company and involved in discussions on the project."
"Within India, Tesla is considering four major auto manufacturing hubs to set up its plant -- Haryana (which will help cater to the biggest market in NCR), Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. But given the major plans for export, it is likely that, if it does invest, Tesla may opt for a coastal state in the west or south."
*So Tesla is NOT set on Gujarat.
2 SOURCE LINKS...
Tesla Firms Up Plans For $30 Bn Investments To Set Up Base In India
EV automaker Tesla is open to committing nearly $30 Bn in direct and indirect investments in India over the course of the next five years.inc42.com
Tesla makes big plans for India: May set up factory, make new car for developing nations
Tesla is reportedly in advanced talks to enter the Indian market and may invest nearly $30 billion over the next five years.www.hindustantimes.com
The $30 billion number is too hard to believe..
Good to see construction getting under way. Will be a while until we see Semi volume increase significantly though
When Nintendo made the Wii, they purposefully left themselves production constrained.
Tesla is a different beast, but consider this:
Cost per vehicle is BOM + labor per car + overhead per car
BOM drops a little with volume and overhead per car drops fairly linearly with volume. However, labor does not have so easy a trend line because it (typically) gets added in full shifts.
Say one shift fully utilized makes C cars at a labor cost of L/C per car.
Bump production 20%, now a full additional shift is needed (unless you go with irregular scheduling). So you have 2L/1.2C = 1.67L/C, a 67% increase in labor cost per car. Berlin has labor rules which make additional shifts even more disadvantageous so it's >2L.
The 17% reduction in factory overhead per car isn't going to make up for that, especially considering factory overhead is really a constant that gets amortized at the end so there are no savings in volume. There is also the step change of stamping and casting capacity to deal with.
To optimize margin, Tesla wants to get demand aligned with maximum output of the current shift capacity. A small increase in demand beyond that works against them. Either wait time starts increasing or they bump up pricing to reduce demand. Only when there is a large amount of excess demand does shift adding make sense. Cybertruck's backlog definitely supports multiple shifts.
* Sawyer Merritt has posted on X.com that GigaNevada is acquiring surplus equipment from CATL for creating LFP cells for megapacks. CATL personnel will set up the equipment and Tesla will run it. We're seeing the opportunities with EV battery supply in China exceeding demand at the moment.