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Gigafactory locations and products

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#102
Fremont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
10 kWh 4680
M3/MY - 2170 moving to 4680 in 2023/4
MS/MX - 18650 moving to 4680 in 2024/5?
Roadster - 4680

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4680 cells from 2023?
Power trains for Freemont

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
4680s
M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied)
Moving to 4680s in 2023/4?

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
4680s - first production line at scale
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Texas in Austin
Will be producing 4680s cells only
Cybertruck from 2022 with 4680s
MY (4680s) from 2022
M3?
TeslaBot? from 2024?

Megafactory in Nevada
Semi from 2022 with 4680s

Megafactory in Lathrop
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s

Gigafactory Bengaluru? (plus R&D facility)
4680s
M1? - 4680s
Entering market in 2021 but with what? (TE only?)

Gigafactory UK?
4680s
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Guangdong?
4680s
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Pennsylvania? (North East) Breaks ground 2024
4680 cells only
Semi? from 2025
M2 from 2025

Gigafactory Seoul?

Gigafactory Jakarta (batteries only)?
 
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#103
Buckminster said:
Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4680 cells from 2023?
Power trains for Freemont
Click to expand...
This raises an interesting question. Pana has invested a huge amount of CapEx into GF1 and have only become profitable recently - there is no way they have made a return on that investment. Will they agree to throw those clunky old drying ovens in the bin to set up cheaper 4680 production lines.
 
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#107
Tesla Metafactory
Artful Dodger said:
I think its even deeper market economics at work. Ten years ago, Netflix had a virtual monopoly (at least, a huge '1st-mover' advantage) in the streaming video arena. Fewer people had access to broadband, and bandwidth was much more expensive.

Now every media outlet and their dog has a streaming service. Netflix has trouble differentiating itself in this sea of well-funded startups and well-established media brands (Disney+ AMC+ etc+). And easing of Covid restrictions means total viewership (TAM) is down.

Now shortzes will salivate that see! Tesla will suffer the same end in 10 years when Mercedes or Toyota or Ford or BangGang Motors floods the market with cheep EVs.

Problem for shortie is they're always 10 steps behind: in 10 years, Tesla will be selling FACTORIES to these wanna-bees, specifically because its the only way they can get enough battery cells to build the few cars their meager resources allow. BTW, Tesla will sell them FSD too. Should make it manditory IMO, or 'no soup for you!'

IMO, Tesla WILL plan (MAST3RLY) to build sufficlent Battery Factories to build 300 TWh of cells by 2040. Now, the competition can either buy some of them, or Tesla will own them all, and those other guys will have to compete with Tesla cars/pwr products.

How, you ask? I predict Tesla is planning to build 3 factories that make battery factories (1 on each major continent). These Meta-Factories will turn Tesla in the Coca-Cola bottler of the Auto and Energy businesses, with their $15T/yr TAM.

Even Warren Buffet likes coke, near monopoly on sugary drinks for near a hundred years now... Just think, by 2030 a Tesla 4680 battery cell with 100 wh of energy will be cheaper to buy ($5 COGS) than a 500 ml can of Monster Energy drink (already $5 retail). :p

3 keys to buying a Tesla Battery Cell factory:
  1. No-haggle pricing on the website, and
  2. No-discounts for volume purchases (we sell every factory we make)
  3. Order backlog stretches for years.
Cheers!

#PREDICT
Click to expand...
 
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#108
Mengy said:
I feel the robotaxi would ramp up quickly to become a large portion of that 20 million autos produced by 2030. I don't think Tesla will sell any robotaxis but rather keep them for Tesla and run the robotaxi fleet themselves. So in 2030 we might see something like this:

8.0 million Robotaxi's (which Tesla might not sell but keeps for Tesla)
3.5 million MY's
3.0 million M3's
2.0 million CT's
1.0 Vans
1.0 Semi's
0.5 Roadsters
0.5 MS
0.5 MX

Or something equivalent to that.
Click to expand...
 
#109
MC3OZ said:
6 months ago my hunch as Austin and Berlin would make Model 3.

Now I can see Austin making the specialist Robotaxi a higher priority.

Most probably Berlin now makes Model 3 or a new compact model.

They are mostly likely to use new Gigapresses to make additional production, of wither a new vehicle or an existing model.

There is probably no good reason to tamper with Fremont and Shanghai Model 3 production, but it would be good to move al Model Y production to Front and Rear castings and a 4680 / 2170 pack.

If they can make a compact "Model 2" in Berlin, I can't see a pressing need to make Model 3.

If they are cranking out Robotaxis at Austin, there might not be an urgent need to make them in the EU or China. But of the 2, Chinese production might be more likely.

My current guesses keeping in mind these change over time:-
  • Robotaxi - Austin.
  • Robotaxi - Shanghai or new Chinese factory.
  • "Model 2" - Berlin
  • Model 3 - remains at Fremont and Shanghai - no major changes - continues to use 2170 or LFP packs.
  • Model S/X - remain at Fremont only - no major changes - continue to use 18650.
  • Roadster - Fremont or Austin
  • Cybertruck - Austin
  • Semi - Austin and/or Nevada
Click to expand...
 
#110
Gigapress said:
I went to Vanderbilt in Nashville and may be able to answer this.

Nashville has, in no particular order:
  • Ample supply of highly educated workforce and proximity to major STEM research universities
    • Locally: Vanderbilt
    • Regionally: Duke, UNC, Wash. U. in St Louis, Georgia Tech, NC State, U of Cincinnati, etc.
  • Fun culture, arts, food, entertainment and nightlife
    • Popular with the young workers Tesla targets
    • This was a key factor in selecting Austin and Berlin
  • Established automotive industry and suppliers locally and regionally
    • GM, Denso, Toyota, Bridgestone, Nissan, etc.
  • State laws making corrupt UAW have difficulty establishing a foothold
  • Relatively low taxes
  • Affordable cost of living
  • Cheap land
    • Nashville is an inland river city with no adjacent ocean/mountain/lake constraining development
  • Central location in mid-South perfect for logistics
    • As @ZachF pointed out, Nashville is almost exactly at the American/Canadian population center of mass east of the Mississippi River
  • Fairly well established tech startup scene
    • Especially surrounding Vanderbilt campus
  • Relatively tolerable climate and natural beauty
  • Explosive population growth (2.8% annually since 1990) and accompanying construction boom
I think the rumors were that Nashville was the 2nd choice after Austin for Tesla a couple years ago.
Click to expand...
 
#118
Buckminster said:
10-12 GFs - 1.5-2m ea
Likely unveil next location in 2022
Click to expand...
I do wonder if a site may have more than one GF.

Austin is the outstanding candidate here, plenty of land.

What works against multiple GFs are workforce an logistics issues.

Berlin and Shanghai can probably both expand up to 2M ea.

Austin seems to have plenty of room, and could have 2-3 factories the same size as the current one.

So could Austin itself eventually do more like 3-4M?

Available workforce is one limiting factor.

Some parts of Mexico are close to Austin and a factory in Mexico should have no problem attracting enough workers.

I'm slightly surprised Canada seems to be a higher priority than Mexico, perhaps logistics are more important than I realise.
 
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