GM backs off from earlier Bolt launch and production volume claims

[ecarfan]

GM officially gives up on nationwide launch of the Chevy Bolt EV, now commits to ‘slow’ ramp up in 2017

Quote: "GM has now made it clear that only California and Oregon will get the Bolt in 2016, and the rest of the US will see a “slow flow” throughout 2017."

Why am I not surprised. First GM acts like the Bolt is going be a high volume production EV that will be sold in all 50 states at launch. And now...not so much.

No matter how much noise GM makes about the Bolt, the fact remains that they are an ICE manufacturer that is caught in a bind: if they make a really good EV and heavily promote it, it will steal ICE sales from them. Their dealers would rather sell ICE cars that they make more money off of servicing than EVs that they make less money off of.

I hope GM sells a lot of Bolts. But if all they do in 2017 is build about 30K units that is not impressive. They should be building 300K.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

GM officially gives up on nationwide launch of the Chevy Bolt EV, now commits to ‘slow’ ramp up in 2017

Quote: "GM has now made it clear that only California and Oregon will get the Bolt in 2016, and the rest of the US will see a “slow flow” throughout 2017."

Why am I not surprised. First GM acts like the Bolt is going be a high volume production EV that will be sold in all 50 states at launch. And now...not so much.

No matter how much noise GM makes about the Bolt, the fact remains that they are an ICE manufacturer that is caught in a bind: if they make a really good EV and heavily promote it, it will steal ICE sales from them. Their dealers would rather sell ICE cars that they make more money off of servicing than EVs that they make less money off of.

I hope GM sells a lot of Bolts. But if all they do in 2017 is build about 30K units that is not impressive. They should be building 300K.

I don't really think there has been much if any change. There was a Reddit post 2 days ago, supposedly by a factory worker at the Orion plant, saying they're producing about 100 per week right now ("as many as we can"). So they're in ramp. Maybe behind a little. GM still had Spark EV sales this year, and they have the Volt. There's no rush. Better to limit supply, take the early-adopter margins, hold onto the tax credit and see what Tesla and others are up to. They can also ship to Canada and get more sales as well, to take advantage of some generous credits while they're available.

 

[Az_Rael]

Well, if they do sell all of those 30K, they will ramp up. One thing GM is good at doing is turning up the dial on production if demand warrants it.

The real question is if Chevy will MARKET the Bolt like they want to sell them.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Well, if they do sell all of those 30K, they will ramp up. One thing GM is good at doing is turning up the dial on production if demand warrants it.

The real question is if Chevy will MARKET the Bolt like they want to sell them.

I don't think Chevy will market it hard at all. I don't think they'll need to. It's not going to be a high volume car and they have lots of reasons not to go for volume in the USA right now.

 

[Vger]

The press were so eager to say that GM had beaten Tesla to the mass-market punch by more than a year. Now, it seems, not so much

I wonder how many months it will take after the Model 3 launch for Tesla to blow past GM in deliveries...

 

[BluestarE3]

they have lots of reasons not to go for volume in the USA right now.

Sad, but true.

 

[FlatSix911]

GM officially gives up on nationwide launch of the Chevy Bolt EV, now commits to ‘slow’ ramp up in 2017
Quote: "GM has now made it clear that only California and Oregon will get the Bolt in 2016, and the rest of the US will see a “slow flow” throughout 2017." Why am I not surprised. First GM acts like the Bolt is going be a high volume production EV that will be sold in all 50 states at launch. And now...not so much.

No matter how much noise GM makes about the Bolt, the fact remains that they are an ICE manufacturer that is caught in a bind: if they make a really good EV and heavily promote it, it will steal ICE sales from them. Their dealers would rather sell ICE cars that they make more money off of servicing than EVs that they make less money off of. I hope GM sells a lot of Bolts. But if all they do in 2017 is build about 30K units that is not impressive. They should be building 300K.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk himself made a rare comment about the Bolt during the special shareholders meeting yesterday.
He said that GM shouldn’t be making 20,000 to 30,000 units like they are planning to, but 300,000 to 400,000 to actually “make a difference”.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

EarlyAdopter, Feb 6, 2015

I'm curious - if GM really can get this car out (per the rumor) at $30k with 200 miles, how are they going to keep sales down to only 30,000 a year (per the rumor)? I would expect demand to be 10x that.

Either the price has to go up, range down, or they limit sales to CA. Anyone want to take bets?

 

[jkn]

I hope GM sells a lot of Bolts. But if all they do in 2017 is build about 30K units that is not impressive. They should be building 300K.

There is no battery factory that could make batteries for 300 k Bolts next year. Somebody must build it first. That takes time.

Tesla has been growing 50% yearly. Perhaps faster is not possible outside China.

 

[dhanson865]

I don't really think there has been much if any change. There was a Reddit post 2 days ago, supposedly by a factory worker at the Orion plant, saying they're producing about 100 per week right now ("as many as we can"). So they're in ramp. Maybe behind a little. GM still had Spark EV sales this year, and they have the Volt. There's no rush. Better to limit supply, take the early-adopter margins, hold onto the tax credit and see what Tesla and others are up to. They can also ship to Canada and get more sales as well, to take advantage of some generous credits while they're available.

GM officially gives up on nationwide launch of the Chevy Bolt EV, now commits to ‘slow’ ramp up in 2017 • /r/BoltEV

BoltEVfactoryworker 1 day ago

We are trying to make about 100 per day right now. We are a one shift plant at the moment. Seems like every 3rd car is a bev. Things appear to be going well, i can tell you that Tesla is ****ing lying about fulfilling 40k worth or orders by next year unless quality is going to be *sugar*.

He says 100 per day, but only 1 in 3 of what the plant as a whole makes.

So my reply was:

Bolt is a one shift plant with 1 in 3 cars being Bolt?

Tesla will be a 2 or 3 shift plant with 3 in 3 cars being EVs.

Tesla straight up will be making more Tesla Model 3 than GM will make Chevy Bolt because they'll put every thing they have into it instead of just making 1 in 3 EVs.

 

[ecarfan]

"BoltEVfactoryworker 1 day ago
We are trying to make about 100 per day right now. We are a one shift plant at the moment. Seems like every 3rd car is a bev. Things appear to be going well, i can tell you that Tesla is ****ing lying about fulfilling 40k worth or orders by next year unless quality is going to be *sugar*."
-------------------

Amusing how someone who claims to be a GM emplovee on the Bolt production line is so well informed about Tesla's production capabilities and quality control that they can make such an authoritative statement.

Talk is cheap GM. Get back to building EVs...

 

[Wshowell]

Does anyone know if the Bolt is profitable? If it's not generating a profit then the objective of building it (the Bolt) was to avoid negative press and steal some of Tesla's thunder and momentum along with gaining favor with the Obama administration.. With the Bolt winning Motortrend's COTY prior to this announcement and the Trump victory, then their mission was accomplished and they can go on building and selling ICE vehicles for a profit. Their mission has never been about about effecting a positive change to transportation or climate change and we shouldn't think any of their decisions would be based on that. Poor Tesla has to factor in their mission statement, shareholder value and profitability for the sake of survival. A far far more difficult challenge. If the Bolt is profitable then it's probably such a small profit that it's not a good place to place resources.

 

[BluestarE3]

Does anyone know if the Bolt is profitable? If it's not generating a profit then the objective of building it (the Bolt) was to avoid negative press and steal some of Tesla's thunder and momentum along with gaining favor with the Obama administration.. With the Bolt winning Motortrend's COTY prior to this announcement and the Trump victory, then their mission was accomplished and they can go on building and selling ICE vehicles for a profit. Their mission has never been about about effecting a positive change to transportation or climate change and we shouldn't think any of their decisions would be based on that. Poor Tesla has to factor in their mission statement, shareholder value and profitability for the sake of survival. A far far more difficult challenge. If the Bolt is profitable then it's probably such a small profit that it's not a good place to place resources.

Even if it's not profitable per se, the ZEV credits will likely make it worthwhile.

 

[Wshowell]

Even if it's not profitable per se, the ZEV credits will likely make it worthwhile.

Doesn't seem to be the case in this environment. Elon stated that the credits are being sold for pennies on the dollar why build when you can buy?
'"The California Air Resources Board is being incredibly weak in its application of ZEV credits,” he said. "The standards are pathetically low. They need to be increased.... It’s a crying shame that they haven’t. And as a result, you can barely sell the ZEV credits for pennies on the dollar."
Elon Musk says Trump presidency won't hurt Tesla — here's why

 

[SageBrush]

I stand by my earlier prediction from September

Bolt EV EPA range = 238 miles combined!

My prediction: Excluding internal Bolt sales of GM to it's own Lyft subsidiary, GM will never sell more than 5,000 Bolts a year if the transaction price is > $25,000 after credits.
As I said -- still-born.

 

[stopcrazypp]

GM officially gives up on nationwide launch of the Chevy Bolt EV, now commits to ‘slow’ ramp up in 2017

Quote: "GM has now made it clear that only California and Oregon will get the Bolt in 2016, and the rest of the US will see a “slow flow” throughout 2017."

Why am I not surprised. First GM acts like the Bolt is going be a high volume production EV that will be sold in all 50 states at launch. And now...not so much.

No matter how much noise GM makes about the Bolt, the fact remains that they are an ICE manufacturer that is caught in a bind: if they make a really good EV and heavily promote it, it will steal ICE sales from them. Their dealers would rather sell ICE cars that they make more money off of servicing than EVs that they make less money off of.

I hope GM sells a lot of Bolts. But if all they do in 2017 is build about 30K units that is not impressive. They should be building 300K.

I wonder how much the Trump presidency has to do with it. From the letter that GM was a part of, it seems they are expecting a paring back of CAFE standards and probably pressure for EPA to reign in CARB under the guise of harmonization. All this reduces regulatory pressure to focus on this vehicle.

Personally, I was expecting GM to focus on ZEV states first, I didn't actually know GM promised this car would have a 50-state launch.

 

[SageBrush]

GM has been soft-pedaling the Bolt from before the election. I think the low fuel prices and pending M3 are more than enough explanation

 

[30seconds]

GM needs to focus on putting V8s and high output V6s in every line for the US market. Plus this was probably a judge against state level EV incentives / mandates that are unlikely to be needed. I'm sure that there is an addition SUV or three that just got development funding

 

[bro1999]

I stand by my earlier prediction from September

Bolt EV EPA range = 238 miles combined!

So, so wrong. Lol
Want to take bets?

 

[dhanson865]

Doesn't seem to be the case in this environment. Elon stated that the credits are being sold for pennies on the dollar why build when you can buy?
'"The California Air Resources Board is being incredibly weak in its application of ZEV credits,” he said. "The standards are pathetically low. They need to be increased.... It’s a crying shame that they haven’t. And as a result, you can barely sell the ZEV credits for pennies on the dollar."
Elon Musk says Trump presidency won't hurt Tesla — here's why

Because you buy them for half cost but if you build them you get them at full value. ZEVs sold get about half value, ZEVs earned get full value (but only if you make Gas vehicles).

So Tesla gets near half value and GM gets full value.