Green New Deal

[juliusa]

Really? I did not realize that the economics 101 of supply and demand is no longer true.

You've heard of new math, right? This is the new economics they are teaching now.

At the risk of dragging this thread back on topic...

Thank you!! Robots taking over has nothing to do with the GND. Just a convenient crisis to hitch their wagon to.

The beauty of a Green New Deal is that it would pay for itself | Ann Pettifor

I agree with the conclusion, but not the logic. The GND will pay for itself because sustainable energy (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear) are cheaper than fossil fuel energy.

 

[juliusa]

Needless to say Fuyao is focusing their automation investments at the US factory.... IIRC they hope to eliminate ~50% of the workforce by 2025.

That is great news!! Increased productivity is a good thing. The displaced workers can fill some of the 7M+ unfilled jobs. The US is experiencing a widespread worker shortage. Here’s why.

Not only are there jobs available for all skill and education levels, but also entry-level jobs - and due to supply and demand they have wage leverage and we can see rising raises for these jobs. As long as we don't increase supply.

The hardest-to-find workers are no longer computer engineers. They are home health care aides, restaurant workers, and hotel staff. The shift is happening because more and more Americans are going to college and taking professional jobs, while working-class baby boomers are retiring en masse.

This means that — for once — low-skilled workers have the most leverage in the current labor market.

 

[nwdiver]

That is great news!! Increased productivity is a good thing. The displaced workers can fill some of the 7M+ unfilled jobs. The US is experiencing a widespread worker shortage. Here’s why.

Sure is... soon those workers will have a lot of free time but where will they get their purchasing power from? Do you think a former GM worker that was making >$30, is now struggling making $15 would be willing to work for <$10? Most of those open positions are low wage jobs. Have you been to a McDonalds? They're engineering a solution. Only a matter of time.

I'm just glad I own stocks. Gonna be ~impossible to make ends meet without income. Too bad ~48% of the US seems to be as irrationally opposed to owning stocks as you are to democratic guidance of our economy. Next stop Elysium

 

[juliusa]

Sure is... soon those workers will have a lot of free time but where will they get their purchasing power from?

No free time. They will be working. Filling some of the 7M open jobs.

 

[nwdiver]

No free time. They will be working. Filling some of the 7M open jobs.

Clearly not if there are ~7M jobs that are either offering wages too low for the area or require skill levels too high (for wages that are too low). Automation will soon remedy that.... Many of those 'open jobs' are the equivalent of putting a house on the market for ~3x market value. Technically the house is for sale... but really?

I've asked a few times and never got an answer... what job(s) do you think cannot be automated AND exist in sufficient quantity to provide enough purchasing power?

 

[juliusa]

Clearly not if there are ~7M jobs that are either offering wages too low for the area or require skill levels too high (for wages that are too low).

7M jobs?? There is something for everyone in there.

I've asked a few times and never got an answer... what job(s) do you think cannot be automated AND exist in sufficient quantity to provide enough purchasing power?

None. The only question is time.

soon those workers will have a lot of free time

Soon?? Like FSD is coming "soon"?? Why are we at full employment running around with our heads cutoff worrying that there "might" be a job shortage in the coming decades?? Aren't there more important things to be worried about?

 

[juliusa]

Economists can't explain the past, why do we think they can predict the future?

https://qz.com/1709972/bill-gates-economists-dont-actually-understand-macroeconomics/

 

[nwdiver]

None. The only question is time.

Ok... then what? This isn't really an economic question it's a technical one. How do we support the consumer base when we need 4 consumers per worker? When we need 10 per worker? 100?

You agree it's inevitable... should we not structure our society to be able to integrate this level of productivity? That's why this is part of the GND. We have to remodel our economy... might as well do it right.

 

[juliusa]

Ok... then what? This isn't really an economic question it's a technical one. How do we support the consumer base when we need 4 consumers per worker? When we need 10 per worker? 100?

It will all work out. Economics. It will not happen in a week. We will have decades to deal with this supposed crisis - if it occurs.

Meanwhile, 7M unfilled jobs and 3.7% unemployment. Nothing will help the economy more than robots and increased productivity. We have unfilled jobs due to a lack of workers. Not unemployed people due to a lack of jobs.

 

[nwdiver]

It will all work out. Economics.

Ok... explain that. If <50% of people get income from stock (and of that ~50% <50% have enough...) and we need >10 consumers per worker... where does the purchasing power come from for people that don't own stock and don't have a job? How exactly is that going to 'work out'?

 

[SageBrush]

I'm just glad I own stocks.

Stocks of companies that produce goods that workers do not have the money to buy ?

 

[nwdiver]

Stocks of companies that produce goods that workers do not have the money to buy ?

There would be a contraction but other shareholders would be buying goods too. If we're so ideologically insane as to to not institute some form of UBI we'll just become a society of walled off shareholders trading amongst ourselves with the other half left behind (Elysium). OR the more likely path would be the half left behind revolts, nationalizes every company and everything collapses like in Venezuela....

 

[juliusa]

Ok... explain that. If <50% of people get income from stock (and of that ~50% <50% have enough...) and we need >10 consumers per worker... where does the purchasing power come from for people that don't own stock and don't have a job? How exactly is that going to 'work out'?

Same thing that has happened for thousands of years. Economics prevents it from happening, or takes care of it if it does.

 

[nwdiver]

Same thing that has happened for thousands of years. Economics prevents it from happening, or takes care of it if it does.

Never in human history have we needed >4 consumers to match the production of 1 worker....

There is a solution.... we produce 1 item when we can make 10 for the ~same 'price' for no other reason than only 1 person can buy it... is that the future you want? Do you want Elysium? I think that's beyond insane but I make an attempt to think rationally.....

 

[mspohr]

If the world ran on sun, it wouldn’t fight over oil | Bill McKibben

That’s not a fanciful vision – it’s exactly what legislation such as the Green New Deal envisions in the US – and indeed there are very similar proposals in the UK and Canada, and across the EU. But we are told that the Green New Deal is an impossibly expensive boondoggle – by precisely the same people now eager to pour blood and treasure down a hole in the desert. A trillion dollars spent on war returns nothing except trauma and misery; a trillion dollars spent on solar panels leaves behind a nation that gets its power for free each morning when the sun comes up.

 

[juliusa]

Never in human history have we needed >4 consumers to match the production of 1 worker....

And there is no certainty that we ever will, or if we do it will be a problem. Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

We need to be humbled about what we don't know. Did you know in just 5 years the warming in Alaska has been to the levels they predicted for 2069? How about the tropical storm that formed and hit Houston yesterday without warning? Economy is no different - read Bill Gates' article I posted.

 

[nwdiver]

And there is no certainty that we ever will, or if we do it will be a problem. Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

We need to be humbled about what we don't know. Did you know in just 5 years the warming in Alaska has been to the levels they predicted for 2069? How about the tropical storm that formed and hit Houston yesterday without warning? Economy is no different - read Bill Gates' article I posted.

EXACTLY!! This could happen in 5 or 50 years but the evidence indicates the economy is already demand constrained. Every recession I'm aware of is mostly triggered by a change in consumer behavior largely due to a drop in employment which spirals into a drop in economic activity. Should we not restructure to be more demand-side oriented since supply is almost never the problem?

THEN... we know we have to eliminate coal. What do we do with the coal dependent communities?

 

[juliusa]

EXACTLY!! This could happen in 5 or 50 years but the evidence indicates the economy is already demand constrained.

As it happens, the economy will adjust.

Should we not restructure to be more demand-side oriented since supply is almost never the problem?

We should not. Economy will do what is necessary. If that means chaging to be more demand-side oriented, that is what will happen.

Excellent story on BBC radio. Talked about prisoners and how they created money. They trade services and good (haircuts, tobacco, drugs), but need currency to facilitate trade (without currency you have to barter directly with the person that has something you want). They use canned mackerel as their currency. For larger items like cell phones which cost $1000 they use green dot cash cards to move money. People are smart and creative - and have been economically connected for thousands of years. It works.

THEN... we know we have to eliminate coal. What do we do with the coal dependent communities?

They will do something else. 7M jobs available - surely something for everyone in that 7M. In your world it seems world peace would be a catastrophe - wars account for a huge amount of work, not to mention population reduction. Ever hear of the "peace dividend"??

 

[nwdiver]

We should not. Economy will do what is necessary.

...........

Ok... explain that. If <50% of people get income from stock (and of that ~50% <50% have enough...) and we need >10 consumers per worker... where does the purchasing power come from for people that don't own stock and don't have a job? How exactly is that going to 'work out'?

Economics isn't 'magic'....

 

[juliusa]

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View attachment 456380


Economics isn't 'magic'....

Correct. It is science. Don't be a science denier.