Guesses on 2020 Pricing?

[tacetman]

For several reasons it would be really convenient for me to cancel my pending order for an M3. The only reason I haven't yet is it's likely I'll get delivery before the new year and be able to take what's left of the Federal tax credit. The inconvenience is roughly worth the $1,875, but then I thought I remembered that last time the tax credit went down, Tesla lowered prices to match. Does anyone expect that will be the case starting in 2020? Or foresee any other magical price breaks (or hikes?)

Speculation is welcome, just trying to gather as much risk data as possible so I can decide how much a savings is worth.

 

[vsansal]

For several reasons it would be really convenient for me to cancel my pending order for an M3. The only reason I haven't yet is it's likely I'll get delivery before the new year and be able to take what's left of the Federal tax credit. The inconvenience is roughly worth the $1,875, but then I thought I remembered that last time the tax credit went down, Tesla lowered prices to match. Does anyone expect that will be the case starting in 2020? Or foresee any other magical price breaks (or hikes?)

Speculation is welcome, just trying to gather as much risk data as possible so I can decide how much a savings is worth.

I believe they are going to lower the price and that's why they have recently increased the price by $500. If you ordered it before the price increase, I would try and keep your order.

 

[Uncle Paul]

With additional competition coming out I expect that Tesla will continue to work prices down and capabilities up.

Thinking that they will lower the price due to the tax credit expiration is perhaps only hopeful thinking.

2020 Model 3s already being delivered.

 

[RangerMac]

It will be lowered by $1000 (apprx half of the Tax Credit like the last two) and then $500-1000 savings on FSD or another option that does not cost them anything.

 

[Evergreeen]

I predict no price drop, theres clearly enough demand worldwide to sell all they make, so why drop prices.

 

[Uncle Paul]

If Tesla is able to take additional costs out of production, then you might expect to see a price reduction.

Believe the main push will be to get as many vehicles delivered before the EOY. After that most all resources will be shifted to getting the Model Y ready for production.

Trying to predict the pricing and options for vehicles into the future is going to be challenging. Right now, buyers are eligible for the vestigal Tax credits. After the first of year, nobody knows for shure what kind of deal you will be able to make.

 

[ewoodrick]

I doubt a price drop will occur. Especially since they are focusing on the remainder of the world for a little bit, for which the tax credit doesn't exist.

 

[George75]

I'd keep your order in place. One thing we know for a fact is that tax credit is gone at the end of the year. Everything else is speculation and your risking $1,875 on well speculation. I mean you could cancel and reorder before year end and you might get lucky and pick something up and get an incentive. You could get some free supercharging or a color you didn't want for free or even some bigger wheels. That too is just speculation at this point in time as anything could happen.

 

[DrtyJrze]

I'd keep your order in place. One thing we know for a fact is that tax credit is gone at the end of the year. Everything else is speculation and your risking $1,875 on well speculation. I mean you could cancel and reorder before year end and you might get lucky and pick something up and get an incentive. You could get some free supercharging or a color you didn't want for free or even some bigger wheels. That too is just speculation at this point in time as anything could happen.

I asked the SA about end of year incentives and they said as long as I didn’t take possession of the car they would honor any incentive they may offer to close out the quarter. Which makes sense and is what most companies do.

 

[kwoody51]

They raised prices in October... highly unlikely they would drop price only a few months later.

Also if Tesla finds ways to save $$$ during production the savings won’t be passed along. It’s a publicly traded company with metrics to hit, one of which is profit.

Like any company the goal is to sell at a price the market is willing to pay to keep the factories at ideal capacity. Clearly with the wait times people are experiencing there is NO need to drop price to match demand...

 

[OCR1]

Who knows. It could go up or down just based on demand. We do know that the Shanghai facility will be coming online next year so the cars they produce should satisfy demand for China, which takes some of the burden off of Fremont to produce cars for China. The federal tax credit only affects US sales and Model 3 now has a tremendous international demand.

Competition from other manufacturers is not going to impact Tesla pricing any time soon. Anything even close to coming out to compete with Model 3 is not going to be selling during the first half of 2020. But we know that a lot of US customers are pulling orders in this quarter to take advantage of the remaining tax credit.

So asking questions about Tesla pricing is like asking for a prediction of where the stock market is headed next year. It may go up, it may go down. It probably won’t stay the same.

 

[George702]

They raised prices in October... highly unlikely they would drop price only a few months later.

Also if Tesla finds ways to save $$$ during production the savings won’t be passed along.

Clear evidence of this is all the things they've removed from the 2020 model.

 

[kwoody51]

Clear evidence of this is all the things they've removed from the 2020 model.

Exactly!

Same price - features = higher margins for Tesla

 

[Uncle Paul]

Profit will allow them to stay in business.

 

[dandrewk]

They also added soundproofing, more range, more power, streaming, one pedal driving etc. Easily more valuable than a frunk mat.

 

[JimDog]

Depending on how elections go next November, the tax credit could be back in full force:

S.1094 - 116th Congress (2019-2020): Driving America Forward Act

 

[RainyDaze]

Depends on timing of Model Y. If it can be early like May they may just let the 3 sunset slowly like the S and X. The Model Y and International Model 3 are likely more profitable.

 

[ambudriver03]

I picked Q4 because we're likely close to the "regular" price of the car (without tax incentives or rebates)(and i was actually expecting CA to screw us over by cutting the rebate early)

While it's possible that Tesla could drop the price of the vehicle because the federal tax incentive is disappearing, I'm not sure why they would...

 

[jjrandorin]

I picked Q4 because we're likely close to the "regular" price of the car (without tax incentives or rebates)(and i was actually expecting CA to screw us over by cutting the rebate early)

While it's possible that Tesla could drop the price of the vehicle because the federal tax incentive is disappearing, I'm not sure why they would...

This past year they have lowered the price of the car as the tax credit was lowered, so it has precedent from Tesla. No one knows however. My personal feeling is, they recently raised pricing last month or so, so they could "lower" pricing mid to late january by the amount they recently raised them, to make it appear that they are lowing pricing when they actually arent.

Not sure if that made sense as I typed it, but the TL ; DR version is, fairly standard retail type pricing trick to raise pricing before putting something "on sale" at the old price.

Thats my feeling anyway... if we see pricing go down by 1k in January, I will feel like I am proven correct.

 

[ambudriver03]

This past year they have lowered the price of the car as the tax credit was lowered, so it has precedent from Tesla. No one knows however. My personal feeling is, they recently raised pricing last month or so, so they could "lower" pricing mid to late january by the amount they recently raised them, to make it appear that they are lowing pricing when they actually arent.

Not sure if that made sense as I typed it, but the TL ; DR version is, fairly standard retail type pricing trick to raise pricing before putting something "on sale" at the old price.

Thats my feeling anyway... if we see pricing go down by 1k in January, I will feel like I am proven correct.

I'm with you on that one, I just expect they're under pressure from shareholders to keep revenue up through when model y starts production.

If they drop the price by 1k then that's 100MM in revenue for every hundred thousand units of inventory they move (in the US).

I think Tesla could probably compete on price against the mustang E if they wanted razor thin margins since Ford will have the benefit of the full tax incentive.

This is one of those times where I'm hoping to be wrong, now that I've ordered my car my mom is looking at whether it would work for her (she's probably more of a model Y type buyer though)