Hi, I’m a short seller

[bhzmark]

I’m just making an observation about an unprofitable, poorly run business

I still don't see any plausible specifics from you that constitute a basis for your position. The repeated failure to articulate that is good evidence of its foolishness.

You do understand, for instance, that maximizing long-term shareholder value does not require GAAP profitability in the short-to medium term? You understand the difference right? I'm asking because you give no sign that you do understand.

And I invite you to ignore the occasional and unfortunate ad homimem directed your way. Just stick to facts and logic.

 

[ShortSeller]

Will do, and I just want to note the post above was meant to be a summary only.

 

[Reality]

SpaceX is a private company with mostly illiquid shares and capital markets that we can't access.

Why would we spend time thinking about SpaceX?

how did you get such a cool title/rank?

 

[hcsharp]

And I invite you to ignore the occasional and unfortunate ad homimem directed your way. Just stick to facts and logic.

Thank you. I've started reporting those posts and I invite you to do the same.

Mod: agree, and one such was moved to snippiness. --ggr.

 

[pdq]

The point, though, is that I didn't know. I only knew that this company was different than any I'd seen before. And that's why I bought, not because of the numbers. Because if I'd relied on the numbers, I would have stayed far away.

Big difference buying in at $30 versus $350.

The stock is currently at $283 -- are you still buying on the basis that the stock is undervalued?

 

[bonnie]

Big difference buying in at $30 versus $350.

The stock is currently at $283 -- are you still buying on the basis that the stock is undervalued?

I think you missed the point of my post: If you just work the numbers, sometimes you miss the bigger picture.

(And yes, I've added to my portfolio above $250. And lots of other stops in between. Whenever there is a sudden dip, I squeal, "It's on sale!" and go shopping. )

 

[Dutchie]

I just bought my first shares TSLA ever. I think it is at a low point at the moment. As soon as they produce 6K M3's per week and are positive cash flow all short sellers will start to panic. I know this is going to happen sooner than later.

 

[oneday]

I just bought my first shares TSLA ever. I think it is at a low point at the moment. As soon as they produce 6K M3's per week and are positive cash flow all short sellers will start to panic. I know this is going to happen sooner than later.

Welcome to TSLA! A reminder of what Elon said last call, if you’re not prepared for volatility this is not the stock for you. I agree with your analysis but I would always dampen your expectations of short term SP movements.

 

[Dutchie]

Welcome to TSLA! A reminder of what Elon said last call, if you’re not prepared for volatility this is not the stock for you. I agree with your analysis but I would always dampen your expectations of short term SP movements.

Thanks! No, I will not lose sleep as I am not that type that checks his portfolio every day. Besides I only bought a modest amount worth. Even if TSLA goes belly-up I will be OK. I just believe what Elon says and have full confidence in him. They will be positive cash flow next quarter (Elon Time, so end of the year our time )

 

[RAVAGESofTIME]

I find it interesting that @ShortSeller and @Reality both troll the same three or four threads almost exclusively. They both joined in April. They both have the same short thesis. I'm just wondering if they might be the same person trying to look like two people. Has anyone caught one of them accidentally answering for the other one?

Who's the fraud?

 

[Reality]

man u posted this in all the threads we/I "troll"!


I laughed pretty hard at "They both have the same short thesis"



*fwiw i dont consider myself a troll, havent read all SS posts, but i dont think he is either

 

[ShortSeller]

I find it interesting that @ShortSeller and @Reality both troll the same three or four threads almost exclusively. They both joined in April. They both have the same short thesis. I'm just wondering if they might be the same person trying to look like two people. Has anyone caught one of them accidentally answering for the other one?

Who's the fraud?

I’ve passed this along to BagholderQuotes on Twitter.

 

[ShortSeller]

Using RavagesOfTime’s logic, Jim Chanos and Mark Spiegel and the tens of thousands of other Tesla shorts are really 1 person. I’m so glad to have these types of geniuses as counterparties.

 

[Reality]

Just for the record, @ShortSeller definitely stole my thesis and not the other way around

 

[Jrogville]

I think you missed the point of my post: If you just work the numbers, sometimes you miss the bigger picture.

(And yes, I've added to my portfolio above $250. And lots of other stops in between. Whenever there is a sudden dip, I squeal, "It's on sale!" and go shopping. )

Back when Tesla went public and settled down at around $18, I also decided I wanted to support the company and buy its stock. But I diddled around and before I knew it, it was at around $84. I decided at that price that ship had sailed, so I did nothing. Go figure.

But recently I've been thinking about the potential of the product line going forward (personally, I can't wait for the Pickup so I can get rid on my Suburban that I only keep around just for trailer pulling). Also, I don't have any doubt that they will get the production ramp up and become profitable on the Model 3, so I decided just yesterday to jump in at $284. Even at that price, I think it will double or triple in the near future. I had Facebook stock that I bought at $20 and sold to buy the Tesla stock. That covered about 2/3 of the appreciation I missed on the Tesla stock so I don't feel too bad. I decided I would feel better about having money in Tesla rather than FB, anyway.

As you can see, this is all very emotional. I'm not a professional trader or investor, but I've done okay nonetheless. I'm happy to be on this particular TSLA roller coaster, because it's not going to end back on the ground.

 

[beamthegreat]

As you can see, this is all very emotional. I'm not a professional trader or investor, but I've done okay nonetheless. I'm happy to be on this particular TSLA roller coaster, because it's not going to end back on the ground.

If you're betting a substantial portion of your net worth on that, please sell and see an investment consultant.

Emotional investing does not do well in the long run. TSLA is one of the riskiest stocks to own. You should be diversifying and indexing if you do not know how to properly value a business.

 

[hcsharp]

I find it interesting that @ShortSeller and @Reality both troll the same three or four threads almost exclusively. They both joined in April. They both have the same short thesis. I'm just wondering if they might be the same person trying to look like two people. Has anyone caught one of them accidentally answering for the other one?

Who's the fraud?

Who cares if they're the same person or not? It has no material effect on the discussion. Besides, what incentive would somebody have to take two personas in this case?

 

[hcsharp]

I think you missed the point of my post: If you just work the numbers, sometimes you miss the bigger picture.

(And yes, I've added to my portfolio above $250. And lots of other stops in between. Whenever there is a sudden dip, I squeal, "It's on sale!" and go shopping. )

I've also been buying the dips, even above $250. I originally invested about a month after buying my car for some of the same reasons @bonnie did. Everybody I talked to was enthusiastic about the company mission. I think the biggest reason I invested was because I couldn't believe what a great experience owning my car was. It felt like the best kept secret just waiting to be discovered by the rest of the world. It still feels that way.

I've also performed several numerical analysies. TSLA is definitely priced into the future. By that I mean the current price is based on the expectation of continued expansion. My current analysis supports a higher value than it's currently trading for.

 

[ShortSeller]

Making a price announcement at midnight on a Sunday, very disruptive!

 

[Reciprocity]

Making a price announcement at midnight on a Sunday, very disruptive!

When you have 23 million engaged followers like Elon does on Twitter, you can announce anything you want anytime you want and it will go viral for a month.

Also be aware that these orders require a $2500 deposit x 100,000 patiently waiting customers = $250M interest free loan for Tesla for all those tracking the coming cash apocalypse and eventual bankwuptcy. That combined with a huge increase in model 3, S and X deliveries in Q2 and lower capex should make Tesla's FCF+ in Q2. Toss in $100M in Zev credits for for measure and Tesla might turn a profit before the impact of $78,000 model 3s in Q3 and Q4.