bambam4171
Member
Dear ShortSeller
Make sure you don't get caught in a beartrap
Graphic by JP (@j_p_jacques) | Twitter
Make sure you don't get caught in a beartrap
Graphic by JP (@j_p_jacques) | Twitter
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Hi, I’m a short seller
- Thread starter ShortSeller
- Start date
Anyone notice how the bonds and stock are trading in opposite directions? Bonds are now yielding 7.5% while the stock marched above $300.
How does that help you or me? What is the correlation between the two?
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
I wouldn't say that Tesla does not have a problem getting batteries for some extend. Tesla could really benefit from having more batteries available for the powerpack for example.Don't forget VW having the exact same issue, oh, even Nissan to some extend. Basically everyone but Tesla
I would say, at this point, everyone is still constrained on battery supply, even Tesla with the advantage of the Gigafactory. We are just now starting to see how much of a problem it is for the ones without a battery factory.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Bonds often lag stocks. Bonds will recover soon enough. Don't listen to fudsters that tell you it's she kind of sign.. bond investors are just very risk averse. Could take as long as Q3-Q4 to rebound as the stock climbs above 400.
bambam4171
Member
It’s just odd that bonds go down while the stock goes up, as if the investors of each have a different outlook.
Isn't that always the case? Treasury goes up, Equities go down and vice-versa
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
Tesla has said in the past that battery packing was a bottleneck for Model 3 production, although it seems to not be one anymore. Telsa Grohmann Autotmation made a solution for it. There is some information in this forum about it.
A better example is the powerwall backlog list, if you listen to the most recent call you can hear that the Model 3 focus helped with the backlog but also the usage of the batteries for projects like the Australia and Philippines has constrained it.
Tesla has also reinforced in the last conference call that they intend to build new Gigafactories that will produce both cars and batteries, which implies that Tesla needs more batteries (even if is for cars being built in future factories), which is to an extent implies that Tesla is also short on batteries, otherwise they wouldn't need to produce more batteries.
There is currently more demand for batteries than there is production so anyone could benefit from more batteries, including Tesla.
Audi announced that they plan to sell 800,000 Evs and hybrids in 2025. That is SEVEN YEARS from now. By then Tesla should be selling millions of cars per year (completely blowing Audi out of the water), and Semis, Solar panels, Roofs, and Battery Storage. If someone doesn't want to risk money and go long on TSLA I can respect that. But to put money on the line to go Short - SO DUMB!
shortseller - you should be hitting the twitter circuits forwarding all the FUD generated by your Tesla hating buddies - Logical Thought, Keef etc.. - on the recent high speed crash deaths in FL. Don't waste your time here.
SeekingAlpha "news item" has the catchy phrase that all shorters love, "Tesla battery exploded"
SeekingAlpha "news item" has the catchy phrase that all shorters love, "Tesla battery exploded"
bambam4171
Member
Batteries in M3 and Energy storage are not the same. Car uses NCA, stationary its NMC. The Grohmann line is apparently not even installed yet, the batteries for Australia Hornsdale farm where Samsung. The context why they want to build both Car and Battery in the same factory was the question if Model Y would be build in Fremont to which the answer was no. So this was not about not having enough Batteries but having to build cars in other places. Just a few things you got wrong there.
bambam4171
Member
bambam4171
Member
Tesla Confident in Model 3 Ramp-Up Target, Expects Profitability in Second Half of 2018
With continued refinement of the system, and increased operational uptime, Musk said on the Q1 earnings call, production could exceed 5,000 packs per week within a month or two. Tesla expects battery pack assembly to ramp up further, with lower costs, after installation of a new automated line designed and built by Grohmann, Tesla’s German engineering and automation subsidiary.
Bam I appreciate you taking the time to find this. I do recall this mention on the call, I suppose I (likely naively) have been hopeful that some progress has been made given that the line has now been stateside for sometime. Thank you again for taking the time.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
That's actually a good short. The 1 c far out vol put option. As long as you are not naked short the stcok. It's pretty responsible bankroll management.
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
I'm not saying Tesla has difficulty getting batteries like other companies do (with the IONiQ for example), I'm just saying they are not swimming in batteries too.
You are right about the different batteries, and I also believe the Grohmann line is also not installed yet. But the point of it was to improve battery packs production, which Tesla wouldn't need if they were swimming in battery packs.
The Australia batteries were indeed from Samsung, which supports my point that Tesla also needs to produce more batteries in house, otherwise they wouldn't need to buy them from Samsung.
Again, my point was not that Tesla is struggling to find batteries like other companies seem to do, but that even being the major battery producer in the Auto Industry it still isn't enough.
It's true that they need to ramp up further. Currently, Tesla Energy seems to be at around 1 GWh/year. Even if they increase production 1000% over the next year, they're still not where they should be.
While on the automotive side, 3000 Model 3 per week works out to around 11.5 GWh/year. This needs to be ramped up to 32.4 GWh/year by the end of 2019, assuming 50/50 mix of 55/80 kWh packs and 480k/year Model 3 production.
While on the automotive side, 3000 Model 3 per week works out to around 11.5 GWh/year. This needs to be ramped up to 32.4 GWh/year by the end of 2019, assuming 50/50 mix of 55/80 kWh packs and 480k/year Model 3 production.
Similar threads
