Hi, I’m a short seller

[Mobius484]

reality, which version on AP did you sample in your n of one? Since you are picking on someone else for their small sample size, you do realize that AP changes over time? I’ve experienced the system continually over the last two years. Even last year, my brother and I joked about his lane assist vs my Tesla and how much better mine is...

 

[neroden]

My main routine investment analysis for Tesla actually consists of checking all the other manufacturers who are claiming they are going to produce EVs. I check whether they have decent ranges, whether they have fast charging, what year they'll supposedly come out, and how many per year they're planning to produce.

Tesla's biggest advantage is how pathetic the other EV alternatives actually are. This hasn't changed yet. Yggdrassil gave a very good description of how this is going.

 

[Big Earl]

3) The AP really isnt very good. I have driven using other lane assist functionalities, even ones that HYUNDAI has and they function far better than Tesla AP in my experience. This is why i find it very cultish, Tesla AP is not any better than base level lane assist, but people rave about it. I also find it very morally wrong how Tesla markets it then attacks people for using it the exact way its marketed.

Hyundai's Lane Keep Assist function is not anywhere close to Tesla's Autopilot, Nissan's Pro Pilot or Cadillac's Supercruise. It kind of ping-pongs in the lane, often over-correcting and alarming for drifting outside of the lane - even on a straight road. It does not appear that Hyundai's LKA has the fine steering control that is required for a true lane-keeping system.

To me, the obvious difference is that Tesla, Nissan and Cadillac are all plotting a course to maintain lane, while the Hyundai only provides vague corrective steering adjustments once the vehicle has already drifted to the edge of the lane.

Bjorn Nyland has a very nice video from earlier this year on what exactly Hyundai's system is capable of.

 

[Mobius484]

I trolled the seeking alpha site and this site for a long time before I purchased my Tesla. I think the reality distortion field is more in the former camp.... sorry but my somewhat experienced opinion...

 

[Zaxxon]

reality, which version on AP did you sample in your n of one? Since you are picking on someone else for their small sample size, you do realize that AP changes over time? I’ve experienced the system continually over the last two years. Even last year, my brother and I joked about his lane assist vs my Tesla and how much better mine is...

And just to be clear, reality was picking on my supposed sample size of 1 for owner satisfaction with model 3 (my own), when what I actually said was that Tesla's owner satisfaction data (covering all 3s) is highest among all its cars and higher than all other manufacturers.

Again, it's objectively true. Not at all a sample size of 1.

 

[SpiceWare]

2) EXTREME levels of forgiveness, the X owner I am acquanted with many times had to use a different automobile because his X "stopped charging", not one time, multiple times. He said that new technology has hiccups. Ironically about everything else he is extremely picky and almost demanding, but for his X he just forgave every issue (part of this i think was never wanting to admit he made a bad purchase but that is speculation)

And yet earlier in that same reply:

I am glad you like your car. You are using a sample size of 1 though.

 

[30seconds]

That is laughable! If Tesla does not have any advantage why can't I order/buy an EV with better range than a Tesla at the same price point? Why can't I buy an EV with a fast charging network that is maintained and guaranteed to be operating when I need to charge while traveling that isn't a Tesla? Why can't I order an Ev that is not a Tesla that can drive itself for me for the most part of highway courses that does it better than Autopilot? And why the heck are so many manufacturers producing polluting vehicles if it's a fact that Ev cars are better than ICE cars?

According to Audi they have the R8 e-tron, the Q7 e-tron, the A3 e-tron on the market since 2015.

 

[MXWing]

My main routine investment analysis for Tesla actually consists of checking all the other manufacturers who are claiming they are going to produce EVs. I check whether they have decent ranges, whether they have fast charging, what year they'll supposedly come out, and how many per year they're planning to produce.

Tesla's biggest advantage is how pathetic the other EV alternatives actually are. This hasn't changed yet. Yggdrassil gave a very good description of how this is going.

Have to factor in how much money other auto are going to lose on every car as well. If they make a truly equivalent car and is profitable than Tesla obviously is going to have major problems.

That leads to the bigger question of why other auto is making ev at all considering they lose money on every car.

Could it be they are forced to whether they like it or not?

If they were all forced, I wonder if the all in EV company will do better in the long run than the one that has to carry a legacy ice line they have to push while limping into EV.

Hmmm

 

[Reality]

I don't think there's much point in me replying line-by-line again. Good luck.

Ya i understand, i just wanted to respond since you took so long to respond, probably unnecessary because i wasnt expecting to change anyones mind. The biggest part is I want to clarify that not all, in fact i would say most shorts are NOT anti EV at all.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Have to factor in how much money other auto are going to lose on every car as well. If they make a truly equivalent car and is profitable than Tesla obviously is going to have major problems.

No, if they make a truly equivalent car, profitably and *in volume*, Tesla is going to have problems. If the volume is low, then no matter how attractive the competition is the only result is a long wait list. This then wipes out the attraction and brings the customers back to Tesla.

 

[Mobius484]

How many people buy a x brand car then invest in the company by buying shares? Or buy shares then buy a car... I suggest for those buying a model 3, they should buy a few shares too, or at least consider it after a few months of ownership if you are compelled. Just like I need to become a support My member of this forum. Which I will do today. it has been amazing ride this far both for my family, and for my account... thus far.

 

[Big Earl]

According to Audi they have the R8 e-tron, the Q7 e-tron, the A3 e-tron on the market since 2015.

While true, they're very short range plug-in hybrids. The A3 e-Tron, for example, has an electric range of just sixteen miles and limited power output in EV mode - just 75 kW. The main purpose of these vehicles is to provide some electric-only range so that owners can drive in cities with congestion charges or ICE bans (Europe), as well as providing a modest boost to their CAFE scores (USA).

 

[kbeckley]

The biggest part is I want to clarify that not all, in fact i would say most shorts are NOT anti EV at all.

Well yes and no. Tesla is the most important player in the EV market (perhaps excluding China's internal market) and like it not the poster child for EVs. Betting against Tesla is very close to betting against EV imo. If Tesla were to fail I don't see GM (or anyone else) redoubling their EV efforts. I think in the early days Elon just thought he had to show how good an EV could be and the traditionals would stampede into the market. That emphatically did not happen. Now he thinks, and it seems he is right, that he needs to hurt them in their bottom line.

So in that sense to me shorting Tesla is anti-EV. To put it another way answer these 2 questions: Is he wide adoption of EVs important? If Tesla disappears will the wide adoption of EVs will take more or less time? To me it is an obvious Yes and More. Hence shorting Tesla is shorting the future. Not to get all moral but I see it that way. As I have said before if you want a sure short look at coal.

One other thing you mentioned, to paraphrase, is that Tesla does not have an advantage in the EV space. How is having exclusive access to the largest supply of the cheapest and best batteries not the greatest advantage? Perhaps you think this is not true or is transitory.

 

[Reality]

One other thing you mentioned, to paraphrase, is that Tesla does not have an advantage in the EV space. How is having exclusive access to the largest supply of the cheapest and best batteries not the greatest advantage? Perhaps you think this is not true or is transitory.

They are married to the li-ion 18650 battery for the S and X and will be for the forseeable future. THese are already obsolete. So they have cornered the obsolete battery market in a take or buy arrangement with Panasonic.

Also about to lose the FIT credit. Good luck competing against the majors with an inferior battery, no FIT credit and a 9 year old model

 

[Big Earl]

They are married to the li-ion 18650 battery for the S and X and will be for the forseeable future. THese are already obsolete. So they have cornered the obsolete battery market in a take or buy arrangement with Panasonic.

Also about to lose the FIT credit. Good luck competing against the majors with an inferior battery, no FIT credit and a 9 year old model

Other than Tesla's own 2170, what batteries are Tesla's current 18650 batteries inferior to? There are several automakers talking (wishing aloud) about future products, but so far nothing that I'm aware of has come to fruition. Please reference energy density, cost per kWh and longevity in your comparison.

 

[electracity]

They are married to the li-ion 18650 battery for the S and X and will be for the forseeable future. THese are already obsolete. So they have cornered the obsolete battery market in a take or buy arrangement with Panasonic.

Also about to lose the FIT credit. Good luck competing against the majors with an inferior battery, no FIT credit and a 9 year old model

What does obsolete mean to you? Battery packs have price and performance characteristics. Is the price of the pack too high? Is performance inferior?

The equipment to make the 18650 cells and to assemble those cells into packs are sunk costs and substantially depreciated. Since these cells and packs have been made for awhile the production processes probably run smoothly. What's the benefit of changing?

 

[N5329K]

It's hard to change a belief with facts. No, it's impossible.
Robin

 

[nwdiver]

They are married to the li-ion 18650 battery for the S and X and will be for the forseeable future. THese are already obsolete.

Cutting edge?! IT'S A RECTANGLE!!

 

[ggr]

18650 is a format, not a battery. The innards have been changing almost continuously since the Roadster days. Now there's a better shape and size, sure, but that doesn't make the existing Model S/X cells obsolete! Otherwise, how would they have managed to make 100kWh batteries fit in the same space as the (then revolutionary) 85kWh batteries? Or the Roadster's original 57kWh to the 80kWh of the 3.0 upgrade?

 

[hacer]

The AP really isnt very good. I have driven using other lane assist functionalities, even ones that HYUNDAI has and they function far better than Tesla AP in my experience.

And you accuse Elon of lying.
Like the Hyundai could ever get remotely close to this

.
Hyundai can't even handle totally straight, flat, clearly marked roads.