-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Hi, I’m a short seller
- Thread starter ShortSeller
- Start date
Thanks for handing money to me. I collect money by selling long-dated put options. I appreciate the profit and the financing.
If you sold any to me you are solidly underwater thanks to our boy’s petulant demeanor yesterday.
long dated puts have basically doubled to quadrupled in price this year. You do know you have to cover them at expiration right?
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Putting a whole new spin upon the notion of a nekkid put.
bdy0627
Active Member
I don't think he's losing any sleep over them. If you know TSLA, then you know this is just typical volatility noise. It could easily go up 5-10% next week.
I'm perplexed by the amount of irrationality that currently exists with Tesla. Investors will make up any reason to justify pouring in money for the company to incinerate. I never short or buy puts because I always abide by the following rule.
"The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent"
"The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent"
I certainly don't have to cover them if they expire (you do know what "expire" means, right?), and the strikes I sold are still out of the money. TSLA would have to drop well below $250 and stay there in order for me to lose money on the deal and that is simply not going to happen.
The time value and corresponding decay on these is absurdly high, due to fools like the one who started this thread. I'm actually up already.
If TSLA actually drops well below the strike price, I'll be happy to pick up the extra shares; it'll be a very good purchase price. I have the resources to buy the stock at those prices.
Ah, you only got into the trade recently? I sold mine a while back and am solidly up.
Recommendation: get out of your trade now. You can make money on this sort of swing-trading short-term but you're going to be metaphorically run over by a bus if you hold past Q3 earnings.
Which is why Musk answered them. It was appreciated. I'm getting as tired as Musk of wasting my time listening to really dumb questions from really dumb "analysts".
Jbcarioca, I very much appreciate your personal posts. My father, during his work on hybrid systems, taught me all about the critical importance of boundary conditions in mathematical models -- and mentioned that sloppy engineers usually ignored them.
However, forecasting is hard, so most of the time, you actually can't do a reasonable forecast; only occasionally can you actually make anything approximating a reasonable prediction. Someone without the perverse incentives might only make forecasts occasionally. But someone paid as an analyst or adviser or manager doesn't have that option. They have to recommend *something* or make *some* price forecast, rather than just saying "Outside my area of expertise". This leads to a lot of nonsense.
There are bad incentives. In particular, an analyst, like an investment adviser, has a very strong incentive to say *something* -- an incentive to pretend to know something when he doesn't. The analyst who honestly says "damned if I know what you should invest in", or the analysts who says "This stock will be worth between $0 and $1 million", isn't really valuable to anyone and is unlikely to continue getting paid.
However, forecasting is hard, so most of the time, you actually can't do a reasonable forecast; only occasionally can you actually make anything approximating a reasonable prediction. Someone without the perverse incentives might only make forecasts occasionally. But someone paid as an analyst or adviser or manager doesn't have that option. They have to recommend *something* or make *some* price forecast, rather than just saying "Outside my area of expertise". This leads to a lot of nonsense.
Yeah, a balance sheet means nothing unless you understand what's going on underneath it. The fact is that every industry and every business has its own "quirks" -- you have to know the sector and the individual business in order to actually read the balance sheet. Some sectors have perenially overstated depreciation; others have perennially understated depreciation. Some companies are not running the business model which the rest of the sector is running.
As an amusing example, which someone may wish to use some time: Stocks in the railroad sector can be swing-traded by watching maintenance expenditures. When maintenance expenditures are cut, the idiots on Wall Street see higher profits and the stock price rises, but in five years, profits start to crash as deferred maintenance catches up and poor operations drive away customers. When maintenance expenditures rise, the idiots on Wall Street see lower profits and the stock price drops, but in five years, profits rise as the benefit of a well-maintained network kicks in. There's lots of stuff like this all over the market.
I wasn't the one you asked, but in my opinion, the advantages are:
1 -- less exposure to fraud stocks like the megabanks, which dominate the S&P (though Warren's idiot purchase of Wells Fargo has hurt performance; I actually warned him about it by a letter two years before the scandal broke, but he ignored me);
2 -- less exposure to the fossil fuel sector (Berkshire Hathaway Energy is a leader among utility companies in going all-renewable)
3 -- lower fees
A fossil-fuel-free ETF would probably be better at this point though. I'm sitting on a lot of BRK with old purchase dates and a lot of deferred gain, though, so the cost of switching is high.
In 2013, as we discovered later, they were close to *selling to Google*. Think hard about the difference between "bankruptcy" and "selling your entire startup to Google". If you still believe that Tesla will go bankrupt due to inability to raise cash, you might also consider Larry Page's statement that he'd rather leave all his money to Elon Musk than to charity.
In 2013 I might have agreed with you. 2018 is completely different, Elon is looking more and more to be out of control, and he’s taking the company down with him.
There won’t be any earnings in Q3, just higher losses. A few of us think they might not even make it until then.
As for me, I started buying put spreads in the Fall, was down for a while, now profitable. I doubled down this morning after Elon’s Twitter rant. He is becoming unglued.
bambam4171
Member
Could you give us some insight into your confidence levels after Elons Tweet today?
Elon MuskVerified account @elonmusk 2h2 hours ago
Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.
Fred LambertVerified account @FredericLambert 2h2 hours ago
Is a "short burn of the century" as bad as a "tsunami of hurt"?
Elon MuskVerified account @elonmuskReplying to @FredericLambert
It will be next level. These are really big numbers.
Have you already covered or do you have balls?
I doubled down actually. When a CEO starts a “blame the shorts” campaign, it’s a sign they are becoming unhinged. Ask Dick Fuld and Jeff Skilling about it.Could you give us some insight into your confidence levels after Elons Tweet today?
Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.
Is a "short burn of the century" as bad as a "tsunami of hurt"?
Replying to @FredericLambert
It will be next level. These are really big numbers.
Have you already covered or do you have balls?
Similar threads
