High mileage cars and drive units

[mspohr]

Recently, an analysis of drive unit failures has predicted that 100% of Model S drive units will fail. Others have pointed out failures in high mileage cars.
I've set up a poll to try to get some better information here. I'd like to get a snapshot of current mileage and drive unit replacements.
Please vote in this poll regardless of the mileage of your car and regardless of whether or not you have had a drive unit replacement. We need positives as well as negatives.
The poll is only looking a mileage and drive unit replaced/not replaced.
After you vote, you can post to the thread if you wish with the gory details of your production date, mileage and drive unit replacement(s).

 

[Max*]

Don't we already have about a dozen polls like this? Also, this doesn't change the sampling. You're still sampling a very small subset of Tesla owners, and that very small subset ALL have two things in common -- they have an interest in Tesla and they're on TMC. For a random sampling, you want diversity.

 

[mspohr]

Don't we already have about a dozen polls like this? Also, this doesn't change the sampling. You're still sampling a very small subset of Tesla owners, and that very small subset ALL have two things in common -- they have an interest in Tesla and they're on TMC. For a random sampling, you want diversity.

Yes, there will be bias... probably towards people who have had their drive units replaced since they are more likely to post on TMC and to vote in this poll.
I do hope to get responses from high mileage people who have their original drive unit in order to gauge the veracity of the "100% drive unit failure" claim.

 

[MrJones390]

80k miles, been through 3-4 drive units all for the thumping sound. Could probably get another replacement due to high pitch whine when gunning it.

The third drive unit lasted less than one month -- thump was not fixed.

 

[Spidy]

There is this one, but it's not that useful has is doesn't have a "no replacement" option.

Drive Unit Replacement Poll

 

[jcaspar]

Sounds about right. Most people don't need a drive unit replacement...

 

[Owner]

My drive unit just died and went out dramatically at 71,000 miles.... It had made a few noises a little bit at one point then they went away. But it died with whines, squeals and thumping noise and is undriveable.

 

[johnnyS]

Mine failed with no warning at 40,000 miles. As I was accelerating out of my office parking lot I heard a loud bang and then had no power--felt like it was in neutral. It felt like the gear stripped or broke. I coasted to the side of the road and began a long wait on Friday night for a flat bed.

 

[The Duke]

Recently, an analysis of drive unit failures has predicted that 100% of Model S drive units will fail.

I LOL at this one. Is this the same study that discovered all humans will die?

 

[mspohr]

When I worked in the ER, we used to have a saying... "All bleeding stops... eventually."

 

[ccdisce]

Not to worry..the pain will go away when you die.

 

[Owner]

I'm 4 1/2 years in and the drive unit is being replaced. I'm guessing the replacement will last me through the 8 year warranty period. What happens then at say 11 years out and the drive unit fails? Then it is time to salvage the parts and get a new car? Is this the most likely scenario when the cars go to the junk yard? I'm assuming this drive unit is a huge cost...

 

[davidc18]

second front drive unit on the 70D is whining more than the original did when it was replaced. Suspect we will have a new drive unit before the 40,000 mile point.

 

[ccdisce]

I'm 4 1/2 years in and the drive unit is being replaced. I'm guessing the replacement will last me through the 8 year warranty period. What happens then at say 11 years out and the drive unit fails? Then it is time to salvage the parts and get a new car? Is this the most likely scenario when the cars go to the junk yard? I'm assuming this drive unit is a huge cost...

Hope that you get a Rev "Q" or later DU as it is rumored that the problem child has been tamed. Pls let us know the replacement rev.

 

[mspohr]

I'm 4 1/2 years in and the drive unit is being replaced. I'm guessing the replacement will last me through the 8 year warranty period. What happens then at say 11 years out and the drive unit fails? Then it is time to salvage the parts and get a new car? Is this the most likely scenario when the cars go to the junk yard? I'm assuming this drive unit is a huge cost...

Hard to predict the future
However, the problem with the drive units seems to be the differential gears and not the motor, electronics, etc. Once enough scrap units are available and some smart people figure out how to fix them, it doesn't have to be an expensive fix.
I'm sure the whole drive unit is expensive but a few gears shouldn't be.

 

[wdolson]

Hard to predict the future
However, the problem with the drive units seems to be the differential gears and not the motor, electronics, etc. Once enough scrap units are available and some smart people figure out how to fix them, it doesn't have to be an expensive fix.
I'm sure the whole drive unit is expensive but a few gears shouldn't be.

High precision machined parts can be expensive, especially if they are made from a very hard alloy. Making those sorts of gears in bulk as a manufacturer wouldn't be too bad, high tech lathes can be programmed to crank them out. But as a shop turning out small batches to tolerances as good or better than the original, it can get expensive.

 

[mspohr]

High precision machined parts can be expensive, especially if they are made from a very hard alloy. Making those sorts of gears in bulk as a manufacturer wouldn't be too bad, high tech lathes can be programmed to crank them out. But as a shop turning out small batches to tolerances as good or better than the original, it can get expensive.

I don't think a shop would try to make the parts... most likely salvage from scrap Teslas. Or, could buy from Tesla if they make them available at a reasonable price. Since we're talking about 5 - 10 years in the future, a lot will change.

 

[wdolson]

We're headed into a period of flux in the car industry. A lot of different things could happen in the next 5-10 years. The first Model S's could be like classic sports cars with good examples highly sought after by collectors and a large cottage industry keeping them on the road.

Jags That Run and the new DMC are examples of this phenomenon. Both are dedicated to keeping long out of production cars on the road and even offering some improvements over the original.

On the other hand, old Model Ss might be as popular as 1st gen iPhones today. Somebody out there might collect them, but few people want to use one.

It's hard to say. I think the impact and speed of roll out of autonomous driving is going to affect the impression of older cars. If the bulk of the population decides they like autonomous cars and nothing else, pre-autonomous cars will become a niche with a few die hards, but mostly disregarded by the rest of the world. There clearly will be some people who want autonomous cars, but if it isn't a huge majority (80%+ of the population) and there still is a significant minority of people who want to drive themselves, then older tech cars will be more popular.

The Gen X and Boomers will be more resistant to autonomous cars and it looks like Millennials will embrace them, but there still might be a backlash against them among younger generations.

 

[Owner]

We're headed into a period of flux in the car industry.

It's hard to say. I think the impact and speed of roll out of autonomous driving is going to affect the impression of older cars. If the bulk of the population decides they like autonomous cars and nothing else, pre-autonomous cars will become a niche with a few die hards, but mostly disregarded by the rest of the world. There clearly will be some people who want autonomous cars, but if it isn't a huge majority (80%+ of the population) and there still is a significant minority of people who want to drive themselves, then older tech cars will be more popular.

The Gen X and Boomers will be more resistant to autonomous cars and it looks like Millennials will embrace them, but there still might be a backlash against them among younger generations.

From the two close friends who have bought Teslas in the last two years, neither was even remotely interested in auto-pilot and neither of them purchased the option. Both could well afford it, and one lives here in Silicon Valley. They are both very successful but not gadget junkies or engineers and just didn't see the point. So why shell out $5,000 for something that doesn't solve a problem that you have?

Now, if you were commuting in heavy traffic or something, that's a different story...