Highest production VIN in the wild

[mongo]

I always thought it was clear all owners would get priority over non-owners. For anyone who thought otherwise, just wishful thinking.

Most everyone knew of the priority, but the form it would take was unknown.
One form would be a reduction in wait time based on reservation order (say 2 month bump)
Another form is jumping ahead all non-owners.

 

[TEG]

I always thought it was clear all owners would get priority over non-owners. For anyone who thought otherwise, just wishful thinking.

Searching now, it looks like Tesla told owners about their priority via email, but the rest of us didn't know they were telling you that.
Tesla Model 3 Reservations: Employees, Owners To Get Priority

 

[TEG]

Also:
Model 3 Reservations FAQ

Can I use my Tesla owner priority on more than one Model 3 reservation?
Yes. If you have owned one Tesla, you will receive priority for one Model 3 reservation. If you have owned two or more Teslas, you will receive priority for up to two Model 3 reservations.

But we have been hearing many stories of people with one previous Tesla getting invited to order 2 model 3's already.

 

[KaJu74]

Anyone know what happened to vinbot? Model 3 VINs

Appears to have crashed somehow. Error message Warning: mysqli::mysqli(): (HY000/2002): Connection refused in /home/webpages/lima-city/blfire/blfire.lima-city.de/index.php on line 16
Connection failed: Connection refused

It is working again.

Picked up our model 3 last week , VIN 4134

!vinbot Model 3 #4134

 

[aubreymcfato]

It is working again.
!vinbot Model 3 #4134

Yes, but it's probably an old snapshot of the database, there are no VIN in the 4000s. From what I've seen in the last months it's not really working properly, many VINs posted here or Reddit are not counted.

This one works better.

 

[Chewy3]

Not seen in the wild, but more relevant in this thread than others:

VIN #6396

 

[KaJu74]

!vinbot Model 3 #6396

 

[nutts1]

When you say "ordered" you mean "reserved", right?
And this seems to confirm that theory that existing Tesla owners have priority over non-owner line-waiters. Some were speculating that once the "line-waiter owners" got invited, it would then go to "line-waiter non-owners", but is sounds more like they are going through all owners (even ones that reserved more recently) before they go back to line-waiters with no previous Tesla connection.

Yes, Reserved in 4/2016

 

[Starno]

!vinbot Model 3 #6396

And obviously, market response :

 

[Waiting4M3]

And obviously, market response :

View attachment 275702

The market will end up at the same place where Model 3 production ramp will be, by taking the exact opposite route

 

[Garlan Garner]

And obviously, market response :

View attachment 275702

Boy.....it was at 352 just the other day. Thanks for the post.

I don't see anything funny about this at all.

I wonder what is making the price go down? Maybe it has something to do with what this thread is divulging.

Whats the highest VIN number are we looking at now?

 

[navguy12]

Not seen in the wild, but more relevant in this thread than others:
View attachment 275691
VIN #6396

I don't know, suddenly I recall what Ronald Reagan once said, "Trust, but verify."

There is history of VINs being out of order with this ramp up.

Let's hope this is not some outlier to calm investor sentiment before the Q4 2017 report.

 

[navguy12]

Not seen in the wild, but more relevant in this thread than others:
View attachment 275691
VIN #6396

I don't know, suddenly I recall what Ronald Reagan once said, "Trust, but verify."

There is history of VINs being out of order with this ramp up.

Let's hope this is not some outlier to calm investor sentiment before the Q4 2017 report.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't know, suddenly I recall what Ronald Reagan once said, "Trust, but verify."

There is history of VINs being out of order with this ramp up.

Let's hope this is not some outlier to calm investor sentiment before the Q4 2017 report.

Out of order? If that order included VINS such as 8K.....9K....10K......then ok, but we are still seeing 3's and 4's and its almost February.

 

[navguy12]

Out of order? If that order included VINS such as 8K.....9K....10K......then ok, but we are still seeing 3's and 4's and its almost February.

I believe you have misconstrued what I was getting at.

I don't believe that production is anywhere near 1000 units a week.

Suddenly we see a VIN over 6000, so an uninformed observer could come to a conclusion that they are, in fact, pumping out 1000 units a week right now.

 

[suwaneedad]

Boy.....it was at 352 just the other day. Thanks for the post.

I don't see anything funny about this at all.

I wonder what is making the price go down? Maybe it has something to do with what this thread is divulging.

Whats the highest VIN number are we looking at now?

The only recent big 'news' from Tesla that would be driving the stock is Elon's new incentive compensation package. On a positive note, it provides solid incentives for him to be around for a decade. On the other hand, someone somewhere postulated that the long-term package could be a precursor to a near-term stock offering that would presumably dilute current owners. That would make sense in my book; I don't understand why Elon and his CFO are letting capital constrain their growth desires...capital is incredibly cheap right now. GO GET IT.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I believe you have misconstrued what I was getting at.

I don't believe that production is anywhere near 1000 units a week.

Suddenly we see a VIN over 6000, so an uninformed observer could come to a conclusion that they are, in fact, pumping out 1000 units a week right now.

Just to put in perspectives, people said exactly the same thing when we saw VIN 521 in late Sep, then 1088 in early Nov, then 2077 in early Dec. This too, shall pass.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Let's hope this is not some outlier to calm investor sentiment before the Q4 2017 report.

I don't believe that's the case at all. I believe Tesla is working as hard as they can to exponentially ramp Model 3 production - thus the limited choices for initial orders (all big battery, all RWD, all Premium Package, etc.). I believe they are building Model 3s right now with no regards to orders - build 250 Multi-Coat White (which get assigned the next 250 VINs), then build 200 Midnight Silver (which get assigned the next 200 VINs), then build 250 Black (which get the next 250 VINs), etc. while they continue to work out all the bugs with ramp up (building cars is hard).

Then they look at the orders and dole out the cars that fit the orders. Therefore if I had ordered a Black Model 3 my VIN might be 6,300 whereas another order on the same day for a White Model 3 might get VIN 5,600.

Mike

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't believe that's the case at all. I believe Tesla is working as hard as they can to exponentially ramp Model 3 production - thus the limited choices for initial orders (all big battery, all RWD, all Premium Package, etc.). I believe they are building Model 3s right now with no regards to orders - build 250 Multi-Coat White (which get assigned the next 250 VINs), then build 200 Midnight Silver (which get assigned the next 200 VINs), then build 250 Black (which get the next 250 VINs), etc. while they continue to work out all the bugs with ramp up (building cars is hard).

Then they look at the orders and dole out the cars that fit the orders. Therefore if I had ordered a Black Model 3 my VIN might be 6,300 whereas another order on the same day for a White Model 3 might get VIN 5,600.

Mike

I believe you might be correct.....however you stopped short. Tesla is making cars. Storing the ones they make. Doling out cars that they have made.

THEN

People receive their cars......then some of them post pics and VIN numbers to this thread providing us a glimpse as to what VIN number might be the highest delivered.

What number are we on right now?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Boy.....it was at 352 just the other day. Thanks for the post.

I don't see anything funny about this at all.

I wonder what is making the price go down? Maybe it has something to do with what this thread is divulging.

Whats the highest VIN number are we looking at now?

It's probably noise

The Signal and the Noise
• Prediction is at the heart of active investing
• Investing is a prediction problem where the signal-to noise ratio is extremely low.

http://www.northwestern.edu/onebook/participate/Signal-Noise_w17.pdf

In terms of VIN info, the farther away a delivery is, the longer it'll take for Tesla to deliver the vehicle which should decrease the frequency of "higher" VINs we see. Once Tesla starts non-owner deliveries on the west coast, the frequency should increase, and once they start deliveries to the rest of the country, they'll decrease again.