How long before a better replacement batteries will be available?

[SergeyUser]

If Tesla is true to its mission, it should start offering better replacement batteries sooner than later. My logic is very simple - instead of forcing people to buy new cars, why not to give them an option to just buy a new battery? In that case Tesla can saturate the market with EVs faster. We know that Tesla's are designed (at least S and X) to allow easy battery replacement. This will also allow people to start with a smaller battery now, save some money, and buy a larger, new tech battery in the future. I guess it will affect decision for Model 3 purchasing, as far as LR vs SR is concerned. At the same time, I don't remember it was ever explicitly mentioned by Tesla or Musk that current Tesla Model 3 owners should realistically expect this in future. This is strange, as in my opinion this will increase current value of Tesla Model 3 cars (and other Teslas).

So what do you guys think, will this ever happen, and if so, when? My own opinion that this should happen in 3-5 year timeframe, basically as soon as new battery tech is available.

 

[Tam]

...saturate the market with EVs faster...

Replaceable battery only makes owners keep their cars longer which means a decrease in sales.

If they don't buy new cars because they just buy new batteries then you get faster battery sales but less EV sales.

Retrofitting hardwares is not technological impossible.

Tesla is very resistant to your idea because it's just a matter of economics.

 

[igotzzoom]

There will probably be aftermarket battery packs down the road. When the Prius first came out, there were all these horror stories about how the batteries would be toast at 100,000 miles and cost $5,000 to replace. I think you can get aftermarket replacement batteries for the Prius for well under $1,000 now. Not to mention, I've seen plenty running around with over 300,000 miles with the original pack.

Granted, the use and duty cycle of an EV is different, not to mention the KwH rating, but in time, you'll probably be able to buy an aftermarket replacement pack.

 

[strykeroz]

I see it as an opening for aftermarket 3rd parties rather than something I'd see Tesla diverting resources towards. Firstly the raw numbers of vehicles with degraded or small packs aren't large so the target market is unlikely to be sustainable, and the process of continual product improvement from Telsa means you don't get a current spec vehicle simply by extending the range.

The barrier to market for any 3rd party presently is the availability of affordable replacement packs. While Tesla holds this competitive home field advantage I'd think the more likely and lucrative customers would be found in the larger installed base of Nissan/Renault Leaf/Zoe.

Having said all that, the gigafactory ultimately is supposed to deal with the whole lifecycle of the battery packs, including recycling spent packs. I don't remember when that feature is scheduled to go live, but once that's in place Tesla could take this on as part of their core offerings.

 

[Tam]

...3rd parties...

I agree! There are already third party battery upgrades for Tesla S/X:

eBayer Offering Tesla Model X & S Battery Upgrades For Just $15,000

 

[Tiger]

Soon Elon Musk Says 600-Mile Range Tesla Will Come In 2017

 

[strykeroz]

Soon Elon Musk Says 600-Mile Range Tesla Will Come In 2017

Ha! But that was Elon from 30 September 2015 as quoted By Dave Calpito Tech Times...and we all remember 2015 Elon was prone to rounding stuff up to the next cool number (in km, and calling it miles)

 

[igotzzoom]

Ha! But that was Elon from 30 September 2015 as quoted By Dave Calpito Tech Times...and we all remember 2015 Elon was prone to rounding stuff up to the next cool number (in km, and calling it miles)

When you say "rounding up" at first I thought you were talking about Elon's timelines! (i.e. 2017 = 2020)

 

[SergeyUser]

Replaceable battery only makes owners keep their cars longer which means a decrease in sales.

If they don't buy new cars because they just buy new batteries then you get faster battery sales but less EV sales.

Retrofitting hardwares is not technological impossible.

Tesla is very resistant to your idea because it's just a matter of economics.

Tam, not according to the Tesla's mission, which is to "accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy." Making replacement batteries will advance this mission faster than making brand new cars.

 

[SergeyUser]

I see it as an opening for aftermarket 3rd parties rather than something I'd see Tesla diverting resources towards. Firstly the raw numbers of vehicles with degraded or small packs aren't large so the target market is unlikely to be sustainable, and the process of continual product improvement from Telsa means you don't get a current spec vehicle simply by extending the range.

The barrier to market for any 3rd party presently is the availability of affordable replacement packs. While Tesla holds this competitive home field advantage I'd think the more likely and lucrative customers would be found in the larger installed base of Nissan/Renault Leaf/Zoe.

Having said all that, the gigafactory ultimately is supposed to deal with the whole lifecycle of the battery packs, including recycling spent packs. I don't remember when that feature is scheduled to go live, but once that's in place Tesla could take this on as part of their core offerings.

How would that divert Tesla resources? They will keep doing battery packs on the same Gigafactory, and according to Tesla, it is 30 seconds to replace, and it can be nearly automatic. I mean yes, they have to sell it to Customers and offer installation, but it will not really require substantial engineering resources' diversion. Yes, you don't get current spec Tesla, but you get an EV, and I'm sure for the right price many people will be happily using Model S from 2012, for instance. It will be different market segment. So Tesla will saturate low-end that way (given that they are unable to make a substantially cheaper vehicle than Model 3) with its current price.

 

[SergeyUser]

Soon Elon Musk Says 600-Mile Range Tesla Will Come In 2017

It does not say, unfortunately, that they will offer it for already existing cars.. I hope they do.

 

[Jayc]

I think a more practical option might be for Tesla to start offering refurbished battery packs with a warranty. Imagine if after 8 years, a model 3 can be sold on with a battery carrying a decent warranty.

 

[strykeroz]

and according to Tesla, it is 30 seconds to replace, and it can be nearly automatic

Do you have a source for that? I understood the M3 is not designed for ease of battery swap, and battery swap stations are no longer operational for the larger Teslas?

 

[dsvick]

If Tesla is true to its mission, it should start offering better replacement batteries sooner than later. My logic is very simple - instead of forcing people to buy new cars, why not to give them an option to just buy a new battery? In that case Tesla can saturate the market with EVs faster.

Making replacement batteries will advance this mission faster than making brand new cars.

No, as has been said, making batteries only lets people keep their cars longer, it doesn't do anything to get more EVs on the road, in fact it would probably slow down the process. The way they accelerate the process is by people buying an EV then replacing it with another EV a few years down the line and using their existing one as a trade or selling it to someone else. Then there are two EVs on the road. If you simply replace batteries you're encouraging people to keep their cars longer and not trade them in or sell them to someone else.

 

[vigge50]

Soon Elon Musk Says 600-Mile Range Tesla Will Come In 2017

Ha! But that was Elon from 30 September 2015 as quoted By Dave Calpito Tech Times...and we all remember 2015 Elon was prone to rounding stuff up to the next cool number (in km, and calling it miles)

Oh god, not that completely misunderstanding again.

If you take out one sentence from a long discussion and don't care about what said before or after and then make your own assumption after that you can probably get out any information you want.

Earilier in that discussion the reporter said that someone had break a new world record by driving over 800 km with a Tesla Model S and Elon responded that by 2017 it would be possible to drive 1000 km and by 2020 1200 km. There was in no way discussion of a EPA range of 600 miles.

When you say "rounding up" at first I thought you were talking about Elon's timelines! (i.e. 2017 = 2020)

No, earlier this year some manage to drive 1078 km on a singel charge wish beats Elons prediction so he didn't round up.

This Tesla Model S drove more than 1000km on a single charge

 

[Tam]

Tam, not according to the Tesla's mission, which is to "accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy." Making replacement batteries will advance this mission faster than making brand new cars.

Let's go with your idea. I bought my car for $35,000. Another person can't afford that much and willing to pay if you can do a price adjustment.

After 2 years, I got a new replacement battery. And out of 2 people: I who could afford $35,000 and another one who could not, only 1 EV is roaming the road.


Now, let's go to current Tesla practice. I bought my car for $35,000 and another person can't.

After 2 years, I can trade in my whole car for a new battery. Tesla in turn would sell that to the one that could not afford $35,000 but now could go for $20,000.

So, in 2 years, with current Tesla practice, 2 EVs, one new and one old, are roaming the road.

 

[SergeyUser]

Do you have a source for that? I understood the M3 is not designed for ease of battery swap, and battery swap stations are no longer operational for the larger Teslas?

I was only referring to Model S and Model X. 90 seconds, rather than 30 seconds. Still it appears the patent application may point towards a battery swapping even for Model 3, with "under 15 minutes" limit: Tesla is working on a new mobile battery-swap technology to deploy out of a trailer

 

[SergeyUser]

Let's go with your idea. I bought my car for $35,000. Another person can't afford that much and willing to pay if you can do a price adjustment.

After 2 years, I got a new replacement battery. And out of 2 people: I who could afford $35,000 and another one who could not, only 1 EV is roaming the road.


Now, let's go to current Tesla practice. I bought my car for $35,000 and another person can't.

After 2 years, I can trade in my whole car for a new battery. Tesla in turn would sell that to the one that could not afford $35,000 but now could go for $20,000.

So, in 2 years, with current Tesla practice, 2 EVs, one new and one old, are roaming the road.

And now let's go even further. Right now Tesla is supply constrained. That means whatever they produce finds its way to the public roads. Let's say X years is how long Tesla EV can be usable. If there is no viable option to replace a battery at the end of X years - a new EV will need to be produced to replace an EV which is not usable anymore. But if a battery can be replaced in the old EV - it will remain on the roads (with the same owner or someone else), while the second EV will replace an ICE. So the total %age of EVs will increase faster.

 

[Tam]

...If there is no viable option to replace a battery at the end of X years...

Tesla is able willing to replace your battery at any time if your current battery is bad.

That means after 50 years and your battery is bad, Tesla will be happy to replace that battery for you for an additional cost.

However, if your battery is still good after 50 years and you want to swap for a better one, current practice says no: you either drive it yourself or trade it in so some one else can.

 

[dsvick]

Let's say X years is how long Tesla EV can be usable. If there is no viable option to replace a battery at the end of X years - a new EV will need to be produced to replace an EV which is not usable anymore. But if a battery can be replaced in the old EV - it will remain on the roads (with the same owner or someone else), while the second EV will replace an ICE. So the total %age of EVs will increase faster.

By all accounts the "X" in your sentence above is going to be well over 10 years, if not closer to 20. To transition people into sustainable vehicles they need to make more cars not more batteries. And, has been said, you can replace the battery if you so desire. It isn't cheap though which is just more incentive to get new one and trade in the old so that someone for whom the range is sufficient can use it.