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How popular will the Tesla Model S be in the years to come? Like Corolla/Civic/Golf?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Benz, Jul 9, 2013.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    How popular will the Tesla Model S be in the years to come? Like Corolla/Civic/Golf/Camry etc.?

    A number of the current models that you can buy today have been very popular for a very long time, like the Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Volkswagen Golf, etc. And it's very likely that these models will still be available for many years to come.

    My question is how popular the Tesla Model S is going to become, and how long the Tesla Model S will still be available as a new car? My guess is that it will still be available as a new car in the second half of this century, although by then it will have been moderated a number of times. But the name "Tesla Model S" will have become a strong benchmark.
     
  2. dtich

    dtich #P708

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    not being any kind of an expert on this, i would guess that the model s, the name, may be retired or augmented in the next several years as tesla moves forward with more and more refined designs, but the basic platform i'd agree is going to be around for quite a while. i think the cars themselves, assuming battery pack replacements, will last a very long time. they have been exceptionally well engineered, work very well functionally, and have so few moving parts that, when the last of the little kinks are worked out for good in revs 2 and 3, all versions of this car will be roadworthy for many many years. that's my bet. and it may be taking it a bit far, but it's no coincidence that the name is so similar to that of the henry ford contraption of just over 100 years ago now; when all is said and done the model s i would think will rightly take a milestone place in the pantheon of modern transportation.
     
  3. joshuaeven

    joshuaeven Member

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    The Model S will never be as 'popular' as a mass market behemoth like the Corolla or Civic. The Gen III might, as the trends move us toward an all EV future, become the car that defines the mid-market EV and becomes as popular as a Corolla.
     
  4. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Actually, I think the reverse. The Model S will always be the premium flagship of Tesla, much like the Mercedes S class. Of course the car will change a lot as the years go on, but the name will stay the same.
     
  5. dtich

    dtich #P708

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    well, i mean, model s mark II, or model s5, s6.. that kind of thing.. not retired, but.. supplemented. so the s is the original. they already have p and p85, and p85+, etc. so who knows what they'll do. but i wasn't saying it would be lower on the luxury spectrum.. so, not sure how that's the opposite of what you're saying? anyway, i was mainly speaking to how long i think the model s platform will be around. point of fact the model T was like 8 or 9 hundred dollars when it came out (between 12 and 400 thousand in today's dollars depending on which indices you factor, lol.. not much help there), but a few years later it was around 250 dollars. the initial premium gave way to improved manufacturing efficiencies and cheaper parts production.. and they could trade price point for volume, as to some degree tesla will do. if all goes according to plan i'd assume that their middle of the road cars should be the big sellers, at half the model s price point. right? in there would be your corolla and camry (well.. 3 and 5 series beemers anyway..). and sure, some version of the s at the top, sounds right. maybe the P120+ sport is right around the corner for all we know. it may even have lighted vanity mirrors.
     
  6. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Active Member

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    How can an $80,000+ vehicle ever be as popular as vehicles that cost 1/4 to 1/3 as much? Are you forgetting about demographics and the fact that very few people in America today can afford a car in this price range? Seems like a very odd expectation.
     
  7. ohh

    ohh Member

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    I believe the OP is talking about popularity measured by time, not by volume. Like the Porche 911 - which is a popular legend, but not for the mass market.

    I might be wrong, though. :)
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    You are right. I meant that the Tesla Model S will be popular for many more years to come (= popularity measured by time). But I think that I have caused some confusion by giving the examples that are actually in a much lower price range. I hereby apologise for that.
     
  9. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Well, maybe not the opposite, but I guess I expect that the badge on the back to always just say "Model S" on one side, and something specifying the individual type on the other (like P85+), rather than changing the actual Model S name. Who knows, but I like to think that Model S will be a model name for decades to come (if you don't like the lower end models in the original post, think Mercedes S Class or Porsche Carrera).
     
  10. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I agree that "Model S" will be a durable name in the Tesla brands. Realistically, though, volumes are unlikely to exceed 200k/year under even very optimistic scenarios: it's too large and too expensive to really hit the mainstream market. Gen III will serve that role, and Tesla could easily sell Corolla/Civic/Golf volumes of the Gen III.
     
  11. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    Regardless of what happens to Tesla long-term, I think the Model S will go down as being one of the most significant cars of the last century, and rightly be credited with starting the electric revolution. I don't think, and honestly hope the Gen-III doesn't become as ubiquitous as the Corolla or Golf. That could be for the Gen-IV. I see the Gen-III as having the commonality of a BMW 3 Series or maybe Infiniti G-series (or Q50, or whatever they're calling it now). The Toyota Prius has become obnoxiously common out here. I hope Tesla is always seen as somewhat of a premium brand, even as they inevitably expand the lineup to include more affordable models.
     
  12. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Agree.
     
  13. olanmills

    olanmills Member

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    I don't think Tesla is even close to being able to manufacture, sell, and service the cars in the same ballpark volume as Corolla/Civic . That's millions of cars.
     
  14. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    The market share of Tesla Motors will be higher each year, for many years to come. And at a certain point in time they actually will in the same ballpark volume as the Corolla/Civic. But not with the Model S (different price point), instead with the Generation 3 or Generation 4 EV's.
     
  15. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Again, if you read the thread we're not talking about popularity in terms of number of sales, but does the Model name remain popular (i.e. when people hear the name they want one even if they can't afford one) for years to come.
     
  16. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    That's right.
     
  17. bareyb

    bareyb Active Member

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    It's already more popular than BMW, Audi, and Mercedes, in some places. You have to compare Apples to Apples. It's a lux sport sedan. The Corolla is a mass market cheapie. I do think Tesla's upcoming mass market car will give them a run for their money. Assuming of course that Toyota does't come out with it's own mass market EV before then...

    As for the "Model S" designation remaining popular? Not just yes, but Hell yes. The Model S will be the car that truly started the revolution. Tesla and the Model S will always be revered in the same way the Model T by Henry Ford will always be revered. It's the most important vehicle of our time (IMO). It's "Car 3.0". :)
     

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