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How to know when ordering if getting 4680 batteries
- Thread starter Steve2150
- Start date
Hurricane4911
IT Guy From 1980-2013, Retired
In short, you don't when you order.
But...
Austin initially will produce MYP only with 4680. So, ordering a Performance model increases your chances.
Living in FL is a bonus. Austin will ship primarily east.
It will take Tesla close to 9 months to ramp up Austin to decent capacity. The first couple of hundred production models have rolled out and are en route to delivery centers. There are no reports out yet on 4680s in the wild.
Visit the Florida waiting room, many good friends there to help you along
But...
Austin initially will produce MYP only with 4680. So, ordering a Performance model increases your chances.
Living in FL is a bonus. Austin will ship primarily east.
It will take Tesla close to 9 months to ramp up Austin to decent capacity. The first couple of hundred production models have rolled out and are en route to delivery centers. There are no reports out yet on 4680s in the wild.
Visit the Florida waiting room, many good friends there to help you along
Welcome to the thousands of comments and questions throughout this site. Nobody knows and everyone wants the answer. That’s why we are all here.
BGOwner
Active Member
I have heard no confirmation that all MYP will come from Austin or any for that matter. We did see a few on a Car Hauler last week but who knows. They also said MYLR from Austin will only be produced with 4680s also. But its a wait and see for everything. Bottom line, no way to say 100% you will get 4680 until both Fremont and Austin MYLR and MYPs are being produced with 4680s
Yet quite a few LR's have also been spotted at Austin....
The whole only MYP out of Austin for now is pure SPECULATION.
Hurricane4911
IT Guy From 1980-2013, Retired
@BGOwner
Yes, you are both absolutely correct. My error.
It's a tough call for a new buyer. By Musk own words it will take all of 2022 to ramp up Austin.
this posted advice is misleading.
Austin will produce both MYLR and MYP versions of the Model Y and will be using 4680 structural battery packs exclusively. Fremont will be soon as well.
Evidence at Austin - 100+ MYLR (not MYP) vehicles were put on display (for the drone video operators to see) outside the factory and shipped from Austin late last week.
Since you're in Florida it's likely (not absolute) that you would get a vehicle from Austin. Austin will only slowly ramp up production volume.
Austin is supposed to become the primary factory for East / Midwest / Mid+Eastern Canada / Mexico / South America deliveries. That won't be true immediately.
If you order a MYLR today, it's several months before delivery is possible, and your odds of getting 4680 batteries is very good.
If you order a MYP today, deliveries are only 2 months or less, and your odds of a 4680 battery car are lower - maybe 50/50.
No one can guarantee anything regarding Tesla deliveries, it's always subject to change, production variables are rife, and Tesla makes changes ("adapts") on the fly.
Ciaopec
Active Member
As you can see, everyone has inside knowledge. So, you will get 4680s or not. They will be in the MYP and in the MYLR or just the MYP.
Austin ships East, Fremont covers the West unless the MYP is only produced at Austin (or Fremont) then all bets are off. It will take a long time for Austin to ramp up so don't expect delivery soon unless yours is one of the 100 or so "drone shot models" (special badging: lower score redline is a P, no line an LR, all drone models will have small red rotors above dual motor). Drone shot models may not be available in FL but you stand a better chance because it IS about as far east as you can go. If your EDD is still in the future: good, still time to fret and search other threads for up to date info. If your EDD has passed: Good Luck. If you end up with 2170s no great loss. I've had them in 3 cars and I gotta tell you I can't imagine the 4680s delivering any better driving experience. Just enjoy. Pretend if you must.
Austin ships East, Fremont covers the West unless the MYP is only produced at Austin (or Fremont) then all bets are off. It will take a long time for Austin to ramp up so don't expect delivery soon unless yours is one of the 100 or so "drone shot models" (special badging: lower score redline is a P, no line an LR, all drone models will have small red rotors above dual motor). Drone shot models may not be available in FL but you stand a better chance because it IS about as far east as you can go. If your EDD is still in the future: good, still time to fret and search other threads for up to date info. If your EDD has passed: Good Luck. If you end up with 2170s no great loss. I've had them in 3 cars and I gotta tell you I can't imagine the 4680s delivering any better driving experience. Just enjoy. Pretend if you must.
Tam
Well-Known Member
If you are not an insider, it's all just a guess. Yours is just as good as mine.
Fremont has produced 1 million 4680 cells already. It takes thousands of cells for each pack so I doubt that is enough for a production line ramp up. As others mentioned, they are most likely prioritized for Semi trucks as well.
That means we need a real 4680 production, not just a million for prototype/demo. That means we need a real meaningful 4680 cell production line. That means we need Panasonic. And that means 2023:
Report: Panasonic To Start Production Of Tesla's 4680 Cells In 2023
Panasonic is expected to start series production of the next-generation cylindrical lithium-ion batteries (aka 4680-type) for Tesla's electric cars next year.
insideevs.com
Thus, If you want 4680 cells, you might want to make sure there's a consistent report from owners that they have gotten them.
You can time without waiting for the owners' report but that timing will just be a guess.
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The focus (or obsession) on 4680 batteries is almost comical.
As you said, 2170's work great, and 4680's won't work much better.
The actual advantage of the 4680 has little to do with power and a great deal to do with the chassis structure it enables.
The MY v2.0 chassis will be lighter, stiffer, and more consistent.
Those yield better handling, potential for performance, potential for range improvement (no time soon though), and body panel fit/finish.
But no one cares about those things on the internet. All they obsess over is 4680 battery FOMO.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Agreed. Many people are so excited about the advantages of both 4680 cells, structural battery pack, AND massive single-piece rear casting but the fact is: Those are mostly for the benefits of Tesla and not owners.
Massive single-piece rear casting makes the production cheaper but owners don't see the decrease in price while Tesla would get an increase in profit.
4680 cells have more power density so owners expect cheaper prices and a longer range but I doubt owners would see those. Most likely, the price stays the same or higher while the range stays the same. Cost savings translate more profit for Tesla and I doubt for owners for a long time.
As a matter of fact, a new structural battery pack is not designed for a quick drop-down battery pack replacement so it won't save the owner any service cost.
So, for investors, the cells and chassis are great news but for owners, it's great in the sense of production advancement but I wouldn't hold my breath for a cheaper price and longer range.
Net, net: Tesla makes them faster so customers don't have to wait as long. Yet again, the benefit is to Tesla as their market share goes up too.
There are real benefits to customers with the new MY v2.0.
It's lighter, the chassis is stiffer, and the chassis is more consistent.
Those get the customer better handling, potentially better performance, and better body panel fit/finish.
The potential for range improvement is there but will not happen soon.
There will be only marginal MY range improvement soon, since the range competition isn't there and won't be soon.
And MSRP won't come down until order backlog declines significantly, if ever.
As a side note, only China will ever see a 25K Tesla.
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