How will Tesla demo FSD?

[electronblue]

I am blown away by that demo, and it said "happening today". So i went and searched for satisfied and very happy customer reviews and testimonials and videos.

Still looking... Daniel please help me.

Well that’s the thing right — the problem for us consumers. MobilEye’s customers are not consumers, they sell a system for automakers to integrate and use as they see fit.

There is a gatekeeper and the gatekeeper went to the pub while leaving the gate locked.

That’s why I drive an AP2 Tesla instead of a MobilEye car even though I definitely know for a fact MobilEye has a better vision system.

 

[electronblue]

People clearly understand this forum very differently depending on where they come from.

For me this is first and foremost a ”General Forum on Autonomous Vehicles”.

For others this is first and foremost a forum about ”Semi-autonomous Vehicles Consumers Can Buy”.

The perspective changes a lot depending on which way you see this conversation.

 

[CarlK]

Sounds pretty serious. For people in ei

People clearly understand this forum very differently depending on where they come from.

For me this is first and foremost a ”General Forum on Autonomous Vehicles”.

For others this is first and foremost a forum about ”Semi-autonomous Vehicles Consumers Can Buy”.

The perspective changes a lot depending on which way you see this conversation.

It is "General Forum of Autonomous Vehicles Consumers Can Buy". Meaningless if you don't have that qualifier even it will not happen today.

 

[diplomat33]

People clearly understand this forum very differently depending on where they come from.

For me this is first and foremost a ”General Forum on Autonomous Vehicles”.

For others this is first and foremost a forum about ”Semi-autonomous Vehicles Consumers Can Buy”.

The perspective changes a lot depending on which way you see this conversation.

I guess it depends how practical you are, ie are you interested in autonomous cars from a purely academic point of view or because you want to actually buy one.

 

[electronblue]

I guess it depends how practical you are, ie are you interested in autonomous cars from a purely academic point of view or because you want to actually buy one.

What a disappointingly narrow consumerist world-view.

Autonomous transportation has a world-changing potential. Far beyond, and indeed quite essentially above, individual car ownership. There is nothing academic about interest in that.

More importantly though, it depends on how interested you actually are in autonomous vehicles because all this talk of Level 2 driver’s aids is a completely different ballgame.

Some people here want to discuss Level 2 driver’s aids they can buy. Others want to discuss autonomous cars. And then there are people in-between of course.

 

[electronblue]

It is "General Forum of Autonomous Vehicles Consumers Can Buy". Meaningless if you don't have that qualifier even it will not happen today.

There is a reason why the SpaceX forum is so popular — and this is not it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It is "General Forum of Autonomous Vehicles Consumers Can Buy". Meaningless if you don't have that qualifier even it will not happen today.

Many people have made the prediction that autonomous vehicles will end consumer car ownership. It seems very likely that the first autonomous vehicles will be robo taxis. I think this forum should be for all discussion of true level 3-5 autonomous vehicles.

 

[CarlK]

What a disappointingly narrow consumerist world-view.

Autonomous transportation has a world-changing potential. Far beyond, and indeed quite essentially above, individual car ownership. There is nothing academic about interest in that.

More importantly though, it depends on how interested you actually are in autonomous vehicles because all this talk of Level 2 driver’s aids is a completely different ballgame.

Some people here want to discuss Level 2 driver’s aids they can buy. Others want to discuss autonomous cars. And then there are people in-between of course.

I remember not too long ago you were so ga-ga about Mobileye being the leader in level 2-3 autonomy technology too until the reality sunk in. That's an improvement.

There is a reason why the SpaceX forum is so popular — and this is not it.

Huh? Consumers, NASA and satellite operators, can not buy SpaceX products?

 

[electronblue]

I remember not too long ago you were so ga-ga about Mobileye being the leader in level 2-3 autonomy technology too until the reality sunk in. That's an improvement.

This is not about me. This is trying to understand the different motivations and perspectives people have on this forum. Some people clearly care about stuff they personally can buy and others are more interested in technical autonomous car developments and so forth. Personally I am somewhere in-between.

Huh? Consumers, NASA and satellite operators, can not buy SpaceX products?

People on TMC are not interested in SpaceX because they are looking to buy a rocket. That does not mean their interest in SpaceX is academic or SpaceX is meaningless for them. They are interested because next generation in rocket travel is expected to make a difference in the world and in the life of people in it — also the technology is interesting. Same applies to autonomous vehicle enthusiasts in many cases.

Personally I am interested in both: what I can buy and what is the state of the art in vehicle autonomy technically speaking. Both matter and at the moment they are very different things.

Maybe it will all change today when my ”Level 5 capable hardware” goes live and Tesla puts Waymo shame!

 

[CarlK]

Many people have made the prediction that autonomous vehicles will end consumer car ownership. It seems very likely that the first autonomous vehicles will be robo taxis. I think this forum should be for all discussion of true level 3-5 autonomous vehicles.

That could be the case if Tesla is not here. Waymo and Uber could fight it out for robo taxis but the economy is just not there for auto companies. Why would anyone wants to spend resources to develop sharable cars with the end result of reducing size of its market? They are only forced to do it because someone else, namely Tesla, will do it anyway. The same reason for why many are jumping into the EV bandwagon now.

There had been the question of why Tesla went all in few years ago ahead of everyone else. It has the least resources and the most to lose because one of Tesla's major selling points is its are great cars to drive. I guess this is what vision is all about. Rarely if ever a company would disrupt its own product, Netflix is the only one I can think of now. They either don't have the vision or they're not willing to take the risk and will wait until its market got turned complete upside down. Another reason I've not heard mentioned is Tesla can not produce that many cars to replace tens of millions cars sold every year. A sharable car can replace many conventional ICE cars on the road. Elon is a smart guy I'm sure he had this in mind too.

 

[CarlK]

Maybe it will all change today when my ”Level 5 capable hardware” goes live and Tesla puts Waymo shame!

We know what you're doing. Too obvious.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Maybe it will all change today when my ”Level 5 capable hardware” goes live and Tesla puts Waymo shame!

Yeah...if I had the FSD package I would not be expecting anything more than Level 2+ (my definition of Level 2+ is less than level 3). I'm sure Elon at some point suggested level 5 was possible, I don't keep track, but honestly if Tesla actually successfully implemented extremely high function Level 2+ even in dense cities like SF, that would be pretty amazing in my eyes. Not sure we need to move the goalposts to "people are claiming Tesla will have level 5." Level 2+ seems super hard as it is. Though perhaps not a cash cow.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah...if I had the FSD package I would not be expecting anything more than Level 2+ (my definition of Level 2+ is less than level 3). I'm sure Elon at some point suggested level 5 was possible, I don't keep track, but honestly if Tesla actually successfully implemented extremely high function Level 2+ even in dense cities like SF, that would be pretty amazing in my eyes. Not sure we need to move the goalposts to "people are claiming Tesla will have level 5." Level 2+ seems super hard as it is. Though perhaps not a cash cow.

April 12th 2019

Fridman: "So let's talk about full autonomy if you look at the current level for vehicles being test on row like way mow and so on they're only technically autonomous they're really level two systems with just the different design philosophy because there's always a safety driver in almost all cases and they're monitoring the system right do you see Tesla's full self-driving as still for a time to come the requiring supervision of the human being so its capabilities a powerful enough to drive but nevertheless requires a human to still be supervising just like a safety driver is in a other fully autonomous vehicles? "

Musk: "I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months or something like that. From here really it's a question of like from a regulatory standpoint how much safer than a person does autopilot need to be for it to be okay to not monitor the car?"

I think they must be very close to level 3-5!
I suppose that if from a regulatory standpoint it's allowed to be much less safe than a human and six years is something like six months since it also a unit of time...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

April 12th 2019

Fridman: "So let's talk about full autonomy if you look at the current level for vehicles being test on row like way mow and so on they're only technically autonomous they're really level two systems with just the different design philosophy because there's always a safety driver in almost all cases and they're monitoring the system right do you see Tesla's full self-driving as still for a time to come the requiring supervision of the human being so its capabilities a powerful enough to drive but nevertheless requires a human to still be supervising just like a safety driver is in a other fully autonomous vehicles? "

Musk: "I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months or something like that. From here really it's a question of like from a regulatory standpoint what how much safer than a person just autopilot need to be for it to be okay to not monitor the car."

I think they must be very close to level 3-5!
I suppose that if from a regulatory standpoint it's allowed to be much less safe than a human and six years is something like six months since it also a unit of time...

Yes. Not surprising. Stand by my statements above. In my mind, Level 2+ would be AWESOME. It's not clear if I'm moving the goalposts with that statement or not. I guess it probably depends on your perspective.

Obviously not much money in Level 2+, but that's good, it'll mean I'll probably be able to pick up FSD on sale at $2k in a couple years when it is working reasonably well.

 

[T-Will]

Here are my guesses for next week:

1. FSD demo driving around city streets (Haven't seen any videos posted of the demo drives yet, but it sounds like they are going to demonstrate the latest development version)
2. Enhanced Summon at a human-level speed (No mention of enhanced summon in particular)
3. Automated Supercharger hardware (Elon mentioned this would be available for Tesla's operating autonomously)
4. Tesla Network app demo (possibly starting out as an Uber/Lyft competitor that uses human drivers) (The presentation showed a few screenshots and a ton of discussion around Robotaxis and the Tesla Network)

I'll rate myself 3/4.

 

[CarlK]

I'll rate myself 3/4.

Good job although you missed a few very important stuff. We all did.

 

[dfwatt]

People dumping on the Y event. I don't get it at all. Tesla released the exact vehicle they promised, exactly on time, and they're taking orders for delivery next year. They're releasing a vehicle at the most popular price point into the most popular market segment at the critical inflection point where consumers are becoming much more aware of EVs and their benefits, and they're beating their nearest competition by at least a year.

How is that not exciting?

Yup. You can only conclude that it must be part of the quite veiled hostility in the financial and mainstream press about Tesla. Mistakes and gaffs get top billing. Describing the unveiling of the best mid-price crossover anyone has even on the drawing board as 'underwhelming' (as it was described) makes one ask "what would it take to impress you?" While I am loath to suggest that there is truly some kind of ICE bias, I just have to wonder if this level of critical dismantling of Tesla has any other believable basis.

 

[diplomat33]

 

[DDotJ]

Here is the video:

 

[jayman]

Here is the video:

No paint it black?