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TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Wow. People still over-thinking and promoting hinky pay-per-use (ppu or poo-poo) schemes... for a 3% problem.
Time for the recurring reality check:
Entire SC network has been paid for with ZEV credits. Recent add - $20,000,000 from MGM. Pays for 60 new SCs right there.
97% of network not congested. Ever.
The converse is that maybe 3% of the network experiences periodic congestion. Except the network isn't finished yet.
Most owners don't use SCs.
Most Model 3 owners won't either.
2/3 of homes in America have garages.
Tesla has committed to DENSITY as well as to DISTANCE for over 2 years now with regard to SC network deployment.
Note that most SvCs will get public-accessible SCs (and some HPWCs - see for example Palm Springs) - perfect for density.
Once again, with rare exception, neither "locals" nor livery are the problem at density SCs - especially relative to the real clear and present problem, which is:
ICEing by our own. A disgraceful malaise exacerbated by poor SC placement (if I never see another SC at a mall, it will be too soon), a lack of recurring user education, and a lack of awareness/consideration on the part of owners.
Devising clever poo-poo schemes for a perceived problem that affects at best 3% of the network is almost comical - at least in North America.
The same sort of handwringing occurred when Costco got into the gas station business. Instead, what happened? Self-leveling. Same thing will happen in those rare areas wherein either Tesla hasn't yet finished the infrastructure or there is native density. See Orange County/North San Diego County which is STILL underserved with SCs, which has placed consistent pressure upon the ONE SC in the area (SJC). Once the OC has as many or more SCs as LA County and once North San Diego County joins the parade, there will be less pressure upon SJC.
All of the poo-poo-ers should invest in ChaDeMo networks since, if they are correct, those ChaDeMos are going to get OVERRUN. Oh noes.... and they could call it the poo-poo network and charge as much as they think the market will bear.
Meanwhile, the SC network will continue to be free or paid for up front, and all will be well.
Time for the recurring reality check:
Entire SC network has been paid for with ZEV credits. Recent add - $20,000,000 from MGM. Pays for 60 new SCs right there.
97% of network not congested. Ever.
The converse is that maybe 3% of the network experiences periodic congestion. Except the network isn't finished yet.
Most owners don't use SCs.
Most Model 3 owners won't either.
2/3 of homes in America have garages.
Tesla has committed to DENSITY as well as to DISTANCE for over 2 years now with regard to SC network deployment.
Note that most SvCs will get public-accessible SCs (and some HPWCs - see for example Palm Springs) - perfect for density.
Once again, with rare exception, neither "locals" nor livery are the problem at density SCs - especially relative to the real clear and present problem, which is:
ICEing by our own. A disgraceful malaise exacerbated by poor SC placement (if I never see another SC at a mall, it will be too soon), a lack of recurring user education, and a lack of awareness/consideration on the part of owners.
Devising clever poo-poo schemes for a perceived problem that affects at best 3% of the network is almost comical - at least in North America.
The same sort of handwringing occurred when Costco got into the gas station business. Instead, what happened? Self-leveling. Same thing will happen in those rare areas wherein either Tesla hasn't yet finished the infrastructure or there is native density. See Orange County/North San Diego County which is STILL underserved with SCs, which has placed consistent pressure upon the ONE SC in the area (SJC). Once the OC has as many or more SCs as LA County and once North San Diego County joins the parade, there will be less pressure upon SJC.
All of the poo-poo-ers should invest in ChaDeMo networks since, if they are correct, those ChaDeMos are going to get OVERRUN. Oh noes.... and they could call it the poo-poo network and charge as much as they think the market will bear.
Meanwhile, the SC network will continue to be free or paid for up front, and all will be well.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
For 3% of the network? Let's figure high and call it 5% of the network.
Why add friction to a frictionless system?
Even within that 3%, and certainly LA County/Orange County qualifies, there is no problem most of the time. You could quintuple the volume of cars sold and still all would be well. Why? For the reasons referenced above, for starters.
This doesn't even begin to include the advances that will be made in capacity and in charging speed over the next 3-5
years.
It's great to have a solution in search of a problem, except when the solution is so much worse than the problem in the first place.
Tesla has access to people planning to visit Mars. Capacity management is not a hard problem to solve by comparison - especially when you can see the demand coming, and especially when the network to date and for the foreseeable future, unless Trump is elected, has already been and will be paid for.
I love a good handwringing session as much as the next guy - just ask me about the GSCW (Great Supercharger Wasteland along I-10 betweeb Tucson and San Antonio). But SC utilization network wide won't benefit from poo-poo. I've visited almost 200 SCs in the last 18 months, and live in one of the densest pair of counties on the continent with 10 or more SCs within a morning's drive (traffic willing).
It's going to be ok. There's no significant "abuse" by locals or even by livery. What there is is ICEing by our own, and even that does not require poo-poo to resolve.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Perhaps a tangent - but what was the Costco handwringing/self leveling about?
BTW - I WAS for poo-poo until the conversations put it into context. Your explanations dominated my education. Thanks for that. Keep up the good work!!
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Thanks for those kind words; happy to help.
The Costco reference, which I could have expressed more clearly, was about their decision back in the day to offer gasoline to their members. Doom and gloomers predicted gridlock and loss of memberships as a result due to overwhelming demand, and even that they would have to charge more, not less, than the competition. And many of these handwringers didn't even shop at Costco. Sound familiar?
The self-leveling part comes in as people adjust when they go to get gas. Tthose darned locals choose between nearby Costco locations (I had a choice of 2 or 3 at the time, for example).
Same now with SCs. I've got a choice of 3 or 4 nearby. Some are busier than others; I go to the ones that aren't - similar to avoiding certain freeways and directions of travel during rush hour. That darned local knowledge
.There are other realities at play as well. Unlike gas pumps, SCs will only get faster and batteries larger and more efficient. And in a nod to free enterprise, there is no shortage of companies that will happily install ChaDeMo and level 2 chargers to provide alternatives. For example, AeroVironment today has a $19.95 option for each 30 days of unlimited use of their full-strength ChaDeMos; that's as close to free as it gets.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Last time I checked, the Model 3 wasn't out yet...
Also electricity prices in the last 25 years haven't even kept up with inflation... so, in reality, electricity is getting cheaper.
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JoRey
Current Volt Owner, Aspiring Model III Owner
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Perhaps you didn't realize I was responding to this line:
By suggesting that people pay for the time they are at a Supercharger, you cannot simultaneously claim everyone has 'consumed' the same amount of 'resources'. Because of the reasons I stated in my previous post. Charging time will vary, regardless of the amount of charge taken on.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
In general, perhaps... But thanks to the machinations of ENRON and similar companies, I think it has been well over the inflation rate since at least 2001 in the Great State of California. Of course, that is precisely what makes solar panels so attractive here.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Thank you SO much! I keep forgetting the angle that the ZEV Credit sales have more than paid for the worldwide Supercharger network on their own.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I have been using Supercharge.info to puzzle out how certain Supercharger Wasteland areas might be resolved. Typically, I presume they will be located either every 80-to-90 miles or so, or possibly every 150-to-180 miles instead.
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cpa
Active Member
I think that it is in Tesla's best interests and its customers best interests to place Superchargers at the shorter distances, like 50-80 miles rather than 120+ for all but the longer, desolate stretches of highways.
I do not have confidence that the average motorist who has a hectic daily life with work, family and whatever else will stop to plan Tesla trips for charging stops. They will pack the car, grab the family and leave. They will not evaluate all the outside factors that reduce range like weather and speed and elevation gains. They won't realize the cabin heater uses a lot of juice. They just want to look at the battery gauge and then determine when to stop, secure in knowing that the Supercharger network spaces them about an hour apart.
I do not have confidence that the average motorist who has a hectic daily life with work, family and whatever else will stop to plan Tesla trips for charging stops. They will pack the car, grab the family and leave. They will not evaluate all the outside factors that reduce range like weather and speed and elevation gains. They won't realize the cabin heater uses a lot of juice. They just want to look at the battery gauge and then determine when to stop, secure in knowing that the Supercharger network spaces them about an hour apart.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
In the days of stage-coaches and pony express....towns were spaced to change horses and rest the passenger. Look at the maps of the West in the early 1900's. As I recall, that spacing was about 30 miles- and reflected a days ride. Folks USED to plan trips based on range. I don't think it is too tough to think we can't re-adapt to planning. Sure, we have become lazy and thoughtless and comfortable with just having everything right around the corner (I know I'm guilty) but I still think we can be expected to plan just a little about venturing out on long trips.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Supposedly the car will warn you when you have just enough charge to get the the nearest charging station. There's not a whole lot to evaluate. Also the vast majority of people (who have homes, workplaces, or parking lots with charging stations) will not need superchargers at all.... It's a waste of money to put superchargers that close together.
If you plan a long trip a few times a year, you're going to want to plan your route anyway (gas, electric, or otherwise), or else you'd just be irresponsible... or you just love to drive and get lost in the open road.
I think this is kind of blown out of proportion. I know some folks on here go way over the top with spreadsheets, charts, weather reports, wind speeds, and writing down measurements at every stop, and yes, that would be too much to expect of the general public, but I don’t think that stuff is all that necessary.
I’m an obsessive Tesla fanatic, but I also don’t like doing that kind of work—feels too much like homework to me. The thing is, the car gives you so much information as you drive that you basically don’t need to do all that extra work. Remember that those things you mentioned: weather, speed, elevation gains, and heater are all reflected in the energy use of the car in real time, and are instantly reflected in the % remaining number on the energy app of the screen. So at each stop, I put in the next Supercharger in nav, charge up until the % remaining looks good, and then drive to keep the % looking good—no research, no homework, no headaches. Everyone is already familiar with gas mileage being worse at high speeds, so slowing a few miles an hour to extend range is already in people’s heads.
Obviously this does need to be within the realm of somewhat reasonable Supercharger spacing. I’ve done a couple of really long adventurous runs of over 230 miles in places where there were no Superchargers, and even left my garage showing that I would arrive with -2% battery remaining. In those cases, I had done some intense looking on EVTripplanner to see if that was even possible for the expert level, but that will not be the normal thing within a few more years when Supercharger coverage fills those holes better.
Yep, this conversation usually starts with “What if you find yourself out of energy?”
I have to step them through the questions:
Do you ever use up over 200 miles driving around town?
No.
So when you would need over 200 miles, that’s when you’re going on a trip out of town, right?
Yes.
You don’t suddenly “find yourself” out of town. You would have packed or planned some on where you’re going for the trip, right?
Yes.
So the planning consists of go to this Supercharger, then that one, then that one… And that is a reasonable level of planning the public can do and isn’t too scary.
Agreed. And it only takes one or two "drive under 55mph to reach destination" messages to learn that you might want to give yourself a bit of a charging buffer.
It is a valid point, however, that many people just drive and are completely unaware of what affects range. I spoke with a very nice couple on my recent road trip. They're new X owners and they didn't know that speed impacts range. I took the opportunity to let them know about rain and wind as well - and about TMC.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
I had much the same experience a few months ago: new X with family from Chicago at the Denver Supercharger Station. They had been driving at 90+ mph for much of the trip and charging to near full at each stop. And were nearly full for their final leg to Breckinridge, which is way more than they really needed (I showed the driver my EVtripplanner plot for the route for my car). I tried to explain that high speed has a big impact on range and that it was only necessary to charge enough to make the next station plus a buffer. And I explained about Supercharger pairing. But I expected that they would get the hang of it with time, since this was their first road trip (although I could tell that the family was getting a bit impatient with the long charge times to get to full). And I guess I can understand going 90+ through Kansas, although that doesn't lead to the fastest overall trip time.
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