Generally, I agree that they won't want to charge too much to discourage use, but I could see them having to build in some kind of premium because they pay commercial rates, which are more routinely subject to time of use pricing and larger peak charges. 150 amps turning off and on in an instant is not easy for the electric company to provide at 2pm on a hot day and so while they will have batteries at popular locations to smooth out the grid draw from, I really wouldn't be surprised for it to be higher than residential pricing. In addition, we have to pay for the hardware and land, just like any gas station factors these into their costs.If Tesla is going to charge per kWh, I believe they will not charge more than their cost per mile in their "Charging Estimator". Therefore we can get a close estimate for a 50 kWh charge by looking at their new 100 kWh battery that goes 315 miles. If you plug 155 miles into their "Charging Estimator", they show a cost of $6.22. Therefore, an estimated cost for a 50 kWh charge would be around $6 or $.12 per kWh.
Another way to do the calculation is plug in the 215 estimate miles for the Model 3 into their "Charging Estimator" for a cost of $8.63.
I believe Tesla's current "Charging Estimator" does not take into account that the new model 3 will have a more efficient battery with more miles per kWh charge.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised for the cost to be closer to 20-24 cents per kWh assuming a 12 cent input cost considering national averages.