Hurricane Irma

[Larry Chanin]

Irma’s track forecast was adequate, but there’s significant room for improvement

Fortunately for us, the NOAA forecast track, even just 24 hours in advance of its actual arrival, was quite a few miles off. At 24 hours out NOAA was projecting that the eye of the hurricane would literally be over our location. Fortunately, it actually turned out to be over Arcadia, 40 miles away.

Word has it that after 5 days of forecasts that Miami would be "ground zero", hundred of Miami residents fled to Sarasota and filled the Ritz Carlton. As it turned out the Ritz is in Zone A and everyone in the hotel and the Ritz residences were evacuated into the local shelters since the hurricane was supposed to be zeroing in on Sarasota. Then, it turns they probably didn't have to evacuate after all since the forecast was still off by 40 miles even at just 24 hours out.

Even with all these advancements in forecasting, it makes one seriously wonder how to plan for these life-threatening storms.

Larry

 

[nwdiver]

Even with all these advancements in forecasting, it makes one seriously wonder how to plan for these life-threatening storms.

....seems silly to evacuate to somewhere INSIDE the 'cone of uncertainty'... it's called the 'cone of uncertainty' for a reason... I guess that when NOAA says the track could end up being anywhere inside that cone they need to be more specific as to what they mean...

 

[wdolson]

Instead of the silly bickering about who made what predictions how about being concerned about the folks who are still struggling with the effects of the storm and those who bore the brunt of the storm and have much work to do in order to return to normal?
Fwiw my area is still seeing wind rain floods even tornadoes and will so until later this afternoon

Hurricanes are tough to predict. There are many variables and a slight change in one variable can make a huge difference. Irma going ashore a bit sooner than expected had a big impact on Northern Florida for example.

*Wow*, that many? So, Marathon, Florida City, Naples, Fort Myers, Plantation, West Palm Beach, Sarasota, Fort Drum, Pinellas Park, Turkey Lake, Ocala, Lake City, Live Oak, Mobile, and possible DeFuniak Springs? That's.... a lot worse than expected. Certainly worse than Harvey.

I'm sure they're not underwater - only two look to have been at serious risk of going under (Marathon and Naples), given how the storm played out.

In Texas, Harvey hit one section of the coast pretty hard and there were only a couple of superchargers in its path. In Florida, just about every supercharger in the entire state got at least the outer fringes of Irma.

 

[KarenRei]

Unfortunately, it's a bloody miracle that one can predict where the centre of a storm will be days in advance with an error of only 40 miles. At least you get more warning than earthquakes give.

The problem is that some people look at the cone, look for the imaginary line down the middle (which some sources unhelpfully actually draw), and think "The storm IS going here", and then get mad when it doesn't. The circles that make up the cone are only 2/3rds probability circles; there's a 1/3rd chance that the centre won't even be within a given circle at that point in time. So people thinking that there's any certainty that the storm will be at a specific point in the circle...

I always linked the ensembles rather than specific runs to give a good sense of the uncertainty. At no point did the ensembles not include tracks that resemble where Irma ultimately went. But I know people don't like uncertainty

....seems silly to evacuate to somewhere INSIDE the 'cone of uncertainty'.

Unfortunately the only way out of south Florida was along the path that the hurricane was to take, for quite a distance. Because the traffic was so terrible early on, most people didn't want to evacuate that far, and preferred to just go to what was perceived as the "less at risk" coast.

 

[Cyclone]

Hopefully, there could be no damage to certain Superchargers, but no status due to power or cell networks down.

Yup. When I looked this morning, 6.2 million were without power, including much of Miami and many areas on the East Coast. So I wouldn't be surprised if some of the major feeds to the grid are down. That said, it is now 7:30 pm and most of my South Florida friends and Tampa Bay friends have power again.

 

[KarenRei]

That's a good point... I have to wonder whether a lot of these are "reporting" problems rather than operational. Then again, checking plugshare, here's from Ocala:

ibrahim Sep 11, 2017 4:06 PM
No power, all 8 chargers down 9-11-17, 12:00pm

Also down reports from Turkey Lake, Fort Drum, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Florida City and Marathon, but they're from the same user at the same time, and they don't appear to have actually visited. Only the Ocala one seems to be an actual visit.. Same user however says Plantation is up, with reduced service.

 

[KarenRei]

CHAdeMO north of Orlando at Seminole Plaza on I-4 has a post-Irma positive report:

Michael S Sep 11, 2017 11:13 PM
May not be the cheapest way to get power but I'll take reliability any day!

Same with Shoppes at Winter Park, northeast of Orlando:

Michael S Sep 11, 2017 11:13 PM
May not be the cheapest way to get power but I'll take reliability any day!

Hmmm... but how could they be at two different chargers at the same time? Maybe they did a post-facto update?....

 

[KarenRei]

Post-Irma update at Pinellas Park:

Leighty Sep 11, 2017 7:08 PM
Post hurricane Irma Superchargers open. Only 1A is not working. Parking lot is clear of debris.

 

[RiverBrick]

....seems silly to evacuate to somewhere INSIDE the 'cone of uncertainty'... it's called the 'cone of uncertainty' for a reason... I guess that when NOAA says the track could end up being anywhere inside that cone they need to be more specific as to what they mean...

It probably can be explained better.

However, there's only so much you can do when dealing with a general public that is functionally illiterate when it comes to statistics and probability.

If the average person asks me the chances of the two tosses of a fair coin both landing heads, I would say 25%. If they then toss the coin twice and come up with two heads they would then say I was "wrong."

 

[KarenRei]

CHAdeMO at the Dunkin Donus , southwestern Tampa with a positive report:

Charles Sep 11, 2017 6:52 PM

Temple Terrance Hall on the northeast side is however down:

Jack Sep 11, 2017 10:36 PM
Out of power

 

[KarenRei]

I think if someone is in a rush to get back, it may unfortunately involve this website (or similar) and some phone calls...

Florida Campground Reviews - The Best of Florida Camping - RV Park Reviews

Otherwise, let's see how quickly the network comes back up...

 

[Larry Chanin]

That's a good point... I have to wonder whether a lot of these are "reporting" problems rather than operational. Then again, checking plugshare, here's from Ocala:



Also down reports from Turkey Lake, Fort Drum, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Florida City and Marathon, but they're from the same user at the same time, and they don't appear to have actually visited. Only the Ocala one seems to be an actual visit.. Same user however says Plantation is up, with reduced service.

Hi Karen,

At the risk of repeating myself, if someone really wants to confirm the status of a Supercharger Station and they don't trust the online navigation systems of their Tesla, they should call Tesla's Roadside Assistance at 877-79-TESLA.

Larry

 

[X Fan]

Unfortunately, it's a bloody miracle that one can predict where the centre of a storm will be days in advance with an error of only 40 miles. At least you get more warning than earthquakes give.

The problem is that some people look at the cone, look for the imaginary line down the middle (which some sources unhelpfully actually draw), and think "The storm IS going here", and then get mad when it doesn't. The circles that make up the cone are only 2/3rds probability circles; there's a 1/3rd chance that the centre won't even be within a given circle at that point in time. So people thinking that there's any certainty that the storm will be at a specific point in the circle...

I always linked the ensembles rather than specific runs to give a good sense of the uncertainty. At no point did the ensembles not include tracks that resemble where Irma ultimately went. But I know people don't like uncertainty



Unfortunately the only way out of south Florida was along the path that the hurricane was to take, for quite a distance. Because the traffic was so terrible early on, most people didn't want to evacuate that far, and preferred to just go to what was perceived as the "less at risk" coast.

"Because the traffic was so terrible early on, most people didn't want to evacuate that far, and preferred to just go to what was perceived as the "less at risk" coast."

Wrong.

Had nothing to do with traffic but rather (given the forecast) the perceived safety of the West Coast plus the desire/need to get back quickly after the storm passed.

Irma's width and path is very atypical. In Naples, last hurricane of note to take that path was 59 years ago.

Fortunately, despite this massive storm, the Floridian state, county and local leaders are experienced in tropical storms and have done a great job to date managing Irma's challenges. Couple that with strict building codes and a favorable storm surge path the damage has been contained.

The eye went over my home and despite 120-140mph winds, no damage was realized.

Over 95% of my fellow Collier county residents are without power and I hope FPL can move quickly.

 

[TFHutch]

I am currently in New England with family anxiously trying to determine when I can safely return home to Palm City, FL. I am fortunate to be retired and not on a schedule.
Power is still out at home.
Tesla nav tells me some of the Superchargers that I will need are "temporarily unavailable".
There are a lot of Teslas wanting to go home to FL, as well as as thousands of ice cars.
I am not going to even start home until power has been restored at home and to the Tesla Supercharger network in FL

What else should I be considering before starting for home? Is there a website that will tell me when it will be safe to return?
Thank you for your consideration,
Fred Lane

 

[Larry Chanin]

Unfortunately, it's a bloody miracle that one can predict where the centre of a storm will be days in advance with an error of only 40 miles. At least you get more warning than earthquakes give.

The problem is that some people look at the cone, look for the imaginary line down the middle (which some sources unhelpfully actually draw), and think "The storm IS going here", and then get mad when it doesn't. The circles that make up the cone are only 2/3rds probability circles; there's a 1/3rd chance that the centre won't even be within a given circle at that point in time. So people thinking that there's any certainty that the storm will be at a specific point in the circle...

I always linked the ensembles rather than specific runs to give a good sense of the uncertainty. At no point did the ensembles not include tracks that resemble where Irma ultimately went. But I know people don't like uncertainty

Unfortunately the only way out of south Florida was along the path that the hurricane was to take, for quite a distance. Because the traffic was so terrible early on, most people didn't want to evacuate that far, and preferred to just go to what was perceived as the "less at risk" coast.

Yes, I will concede that we get more warning than a earthquake. I suppose we should be grateful for that.

Nevertheless, as much as I truly appreciate the fact that hurricane predictions have improved, the fact remains that the "science" still has a long way to go. Despite their many qualifications, the bottom line is that the vast majority of meteorologists on local TV inadvertently give the false impression to laypersons that they actually know what is going to happen. What is particularly dangerous is that just 24 hours in advance of the predicted arrival of the storm those meteorologists portray a virtual certitude of those predictions. That is pure nonsense.

However, the fact remains that this forecast was not off by 40 miles days in advance as you put it, but it was actually 40 miles off just a mere 24 hours in advance. Yes, the ensembles of spaghetti models does indeed give a a good sense of the uncertainty. However, with all due respect, surely you understand that your repeated posting of that information was virtually useless to laypersons reviewing it in actually assisting them in making life and death decisions. As you say, it is only useful in simply demonstrating how much the experts really do not know about predicting the paths of hurricanes even 24 hours in advance. Furthermore, the experts would be the first to admit that they even know less when it comes to predicting the strength of a hurricane along those indeterminant paths.

....seems silly to evacuate to somewhere INSIDE the 'cone of uncertainty'... it's called the 'cone of uncertainty' for a reason... I guess that when NOAA says the track could end up being anywhere inside that cone they need to be more specific as to what they mean...

Excellent point. I think that I am going to pre-plan a vacation out of the state of Florida with some of my close friends. Then, after I have "buttoned up" my home with storm shutters, I am going to use the next Florida hurricane that threatens most of the state as an excuse to take that pre-planned vacation with those friends. I might as well have an excuse to have fun and I'll just pass up on the "experts" advice because frankly I'm not yet convinced that they are actually helping the situation. I'm sure that those thousands of people that used those predictions to evacuate into the teeth of a hurricane would agree with this approach.

Larry

 

[TFHutch]

.... I think that I am going to pre-plan a vacation out of the state of Florida with some of my close friends. Then, after I have "buttoned up" my home with storm shutters, I am going to use the next Florida hurricane that threatens most of the state as an excuse to take that pre-planned vacation with those friends. I might as well have an excuse to have fun and I'll just pass up on the "experts" advice because frankly I'm not yet convinced that they are actually helping the situation. I'm sure that those thousands of people that used those predictions to evacuate into the teeth of a hurricane would agree with this approach.

Larry

Larry, exactly what I did. Now the question is when will it be safe to return?

 

[Larry Chanin]

Larry, exactly what I did. Now the question is when will it be safe to return?

Hi Fred,

Well, if you are retired, or have a flexible work schedule, who cares if you extend a vacation waiting for electricity and infrastructure to be restored. ;-)

Larry

 

[TFHutch]

Hi Fred,

Well, if you are retired, or have a flexible work schedule, who cares if you extend a vacation waiting for electricity and infrastructure to be resorted. ;-)

Larry

We have commitments, so we care. The queston is does Florida DOT or another entity publish such information?

 

[Larry Chanin]

Larry, exactly what I did. Now the question is when will it be safe to return?

Fred,

It usually takes a day to ensure that the roads are safe to travel. FDOT has an application that monitors the roads called FL511.com. I've used it, and found it useful, but a bit buggy. As was mentioned, you can monitor the status of the Superchargers via your navigation system and/or call Tesla Roadside Assistance. Most electric utilities' websites will provide information regarding the status of outages. You can usually input your address to obtain status.

Larry

 

[nwdiver]

Excellent point. I think that I am going to pre-plan a vacation out of the state of Florida with some of my close friends. Then, after I have "buttoned up" my home with storm shutters, I am going to use the next Florida hurricane that threatens most of the state as an excuse to take that pre-planned vacation with those friends. I might as well have an excuse to have fun and I'll just pass up on the "experts" advice because frankly I'm not yet convinced that they are actually helping the situation. I'm sure that those thousands of people that used those predictions to evacuate into the teeth of a hurricane would agree with this approach.

It's a hard spot to be in as a meteorologist. I saw a Ted Talk about weather forecasting... (can't find the YouTube video) the scale of what has to be modeled spans 17 orders of magnitude. From water molecules floating in the air to the spin of the planet and the pull of the moon. There's always going to be a very high degree of uncertainty when it comes down to a precise prediction. You can't evacuate ~4M people in 2 days. If they had predicted East Coast and Miami stayed but got hit be a Cat 5 monster the toll would be apocalyptic.

If someone told be that if I don't leave my house tomorrow for a week there's a 5% chance I would die... I'm leaving.