Most of those top two paragraphs are listed under FSD on this current page too. Except the part about robotaxi/tesla network.
Autopilot | Tesla
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I am now planning to get the full self-driving option and here is why
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Most of those top two paragraphs are listed under FSD on this current page too. Except the part about robotaxi/tesla network.
Autopilot | Tesla
This got me wondering what my response was, and how my opinion has shifted over time.
This was what I said back in Feb 2018 (post #116) before I got my P3D with FSD in Sep 2018.
"I consider myself one of the main detractors of FSD, and in fact I think it was one of the three things that happened in 2016 that signified the end of reality itself. But, when it comes time to ordering it's going to be hard not to get it.
I'll get it despite the fact that
1.) It doesn't have the sensors needed for FSD. In fact it doesn't even have the sensors required to safely backup. Heck a Subaru Outback with cross traffic radar can back up more safely. The camera's won't do any good if they're dirty, and the ultrasonics miss stuff all the time.
2.) We don't know what regulatory requirements will require for level 4 or level 5 self driving. You can't declare something as self-driving capable when you don't even know what the requirements will be.
3.) That I know full well that self driving cars have to be magnitudes of degrees safer than human drivers to be allowed.
I'll get it because I strongly believe that Tesla will throw FSD owners some kind of bone. Where there either going to do free upgrades to the drive computer. Or it will be capable of taking over in a lot more situations than EAP only. Like lets say I was coming to a 4 way busy stop, and I'm like ughh I don't want to deal with this and I turn it on to have the car deal with it. Even if i had to act as a second set of eyes it would still be worth it.
It would be like my little driving buddy."
I still believe those three things ring true today just as they did 4+ years ago. For regulatory see California or Europe.
FSD owners were thrown a bone in upgrades to the drive computer. It's also more capable than EAP like FSD now has Vision parking, and EAP owners with HW2.5 don't get that.
Now that isn't to say I predicted what would happen.
I didn't even consider the possibility of the Safety Score Games
FSD Beta to regular customers was beyond my wildest imagination
I really thought I'd have at least 4 way stop handling by now, and the FSD Beta 4 way stop handling was a major let down.
My little driving buddy - Haha -> Maybe one more year
All that being said I'm still okay with the $3K I paid for FSD.
I'm not okay with the $5K for EAP, but that's an entirely different topic.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
Except 4 way stops are actually one of the more difficult intersections. Think about what happens when you drive them yourself - how often do you come up on one at the same time as someone else and you’re both sitting there trying to figure out who will go first until one driver waves at the other? How often do you come up and start to proceed because you have the right of way but another driver jumps the gun?
The rules of 4 way stops are pretty clear. The practical application of them is clear as mud.
Would be nice if at least when the intersection is clear, the car will pull up to the stop sign at a normal rate and accelerate away at a decent rate as well...right now it's pretty slow even on an empty intersection. If there's a car behind me, i always have to use the accelerator to push it through
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
yes - the acceleration has gotten better in 11.2 vs 10.2 but is still pretty conservative. It's still beta, though, and as I've driven my car and thought about everything I assess and consider without realizing it I realize how much FSD is trying to do. The FSD has to program all this and slow, conservative acceleration allows the computer more time to catch mistakes and adjust.
Not only do I agree with you on that, but I would add additional things to the list especially in the PNW where we're experts at the "no, you go" wave.
In fact the first thing an L2 car that handles 4 way stops needs to do is gesture recognition.
But, what I'm let down by FSD Beta is not that it struggles with complicated scenarios like many cars arriving at the same time or blocked vision. What lets me down is even basic situations where someone else has clearly arrived first it doesn't seem to recognize. It also doesn't stop as smoothly nor does it get going in a smooth manner. To make matters worse the latest version will use its turn signals at the stop while going straight (it's a mapping issue as one lane goes into two).
It needs to stop smoothly, accelerate smoothly, and don't twitch out of place. And, most important don't turn on the turn signals while going straight.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
well, why don't you just ask for world peace while you're at it!
At this point I'd love for the world to be given a break.
A little less dying, and a little more living.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
whitex
Well-Known Member
The key difference is the first sentence of the first paragraph, which qualifies it all as dependent on "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers". If they never achieve it, it will never do any of these things. Subtle, but very significant difference. If they never achieve it, it never works. They never say they guarantee they will achieve it, do they? They only say they will continuously upgrade your car, nothing more.
But if they do eventually achieve it with future HW upgrades like HW4 or HW5 or 6 and new cameras and sensors, wouldn’t we be owed all those upgrades? (Lol also unlikely any of our cars will still be in decent condition by then)
I'm sure people from the earliest sales of FSD to just before the next generation of HW will feel like they're owed. They'll present their evidence here, but I don't think they'll get the HW upgrade. Once Tesla starts messing with adding new cameras, and other sensors its simply cost prohibitive to upgrade old vehicles. Not to mention the environmental cost of upgrading so many vehicles.
Refunds are a possibility, but I think Tesla will prevent people from getting refunds by tying the refund to having to give up existing FSD functionality as they no longer paid for it.
Ultimately Tesla needs to move people from owning FSD to paying for a subscription. So I could see them offering people a free FSD subscription for a fixed amount of time on a new Tesla purchase. I certainly wouldn't mind a few years of free FSD on a new Tesla for the $3K I paid for FSD (not counting the $5K I paid for EAP).
Yea, that could work.
But I dunno…They keep digging themselves deeper into the hole by selling hundreds of thousands of cars with FSD capability with the same old HW that will not achieve what’s stated in the FSD description on the autopilot page. I really don’t understand what their end goal is…that everyone will just forget what they paid for?
whitex
Well-Known Member
LOL. Asked and answered. Plus even if you kept your car in perfect condition, the retrofit from AP2 to AP6 would be prohibitively expensive. Notice AP2 to AP3 they didn't even replace the cameras, even though they could have. For few generations later, the sensors will be different and in different locations.
It's like when they sold P85D's speced at 691hp, they didn't upgrade them for free to P100D's which could in fact produce that power. They offered a $5K retrofit to hit ~510hp (from 460hp which Elon and JB tried so hard to bullshit people that "special EV hp" worth "700+ ICE hp"). Same will happen with AP2 FSD, you can upgrade to HW3, but probably not even HW4. One version up is the practical limit (e.g. MCU1 can be upgraded to MCU2, but not to MCU3, since too much has changed). Anyone who is buying FSD today is pre-paying for one version up upgrade, only if the upgrade is not too expensive.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Ah, but they are not really digging deep at all. Tesla has since perfected the art of fine print and disclaimers - they are iron clad against liability today. Some people will be pissed, but it won't matter. Elon is mostly about new customers, rather than repeat customers. And in majority of case the customers will not have to forget, they will just never know in the first place. How many people buying a 10 year old car actually look at the original feature descriptions (especially with Tesla which erases them from their website as soon as they change)? Look at anyone buying AP1 Tesla's today, do they expect the "meet you at the curb perpendicular to the driveway summon", or Elon's reveal promise of "AP1 summon will find you anywhere on private property"? How many people today remember this from Tesla AP1 advertising?
How many expect the above from used Teslas with AP1? Everyone knows today the underdelivered AP1 capabilities, so people buying used Teslas with AP1 will never expect it. Same will happen used cars with FSD, people will know it's a complete BS, Elon will ignore it by pointing to AP4 or whatever the current version will be, tell them it will "really" be ready by the end of the year (like city streets FSD advertising used to say at one point) , and the world will move one. Tesla will also strip a bunch of FSD from too old cars during ownership transfers, as they have been doing for a while, and not offer FSD add-on purchase for those car cars wither. Anyone complaining about not having FSD on their 10 year old Tesla will be dismissed and drowned out by fanboys, pointing to whatever the latest generation of FSD does as progress and how Elon is changing the world.
PS> I don't think even the latest FSD beta can do what was pictured in the above AP advertising. As a side note, the above was before they had all the fine print disclaimers by the way, so technically people could sue, but they won't, they've moved on.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Tesla will not offer full refunds, not even without any interest or other additional compensation. Too many people would take them up on it.
This is why I've been saying for years, if you really want to gable on FSD, buy TSLA stock instead of FSD. If they ever figure it out, you will be able to buy a new Tesla with FSD for the stock. Heck, between 2018 and now, anyone who followed by advice could buy a new Model S with it today, even though FSD is perpetually in "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure" away from done.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Amateur move.
August 2019
June 2021
I think the options would have expired today. Someone who followed my advice instead of buying FSD 2 years ago would have made $1,692,712.60.
I wish I had believed in Tesla's ability to achieve FSD.
whitex
Well-Known Member
I've been saying it since FSD began. In this thread in Feb 2018. Why amateur? TSLA was a better investment than FSD option all around. If TSLA goes to 0, FSD value goes to 0 (feature probably stops working without Tesla servers permanently online). If FSD is in fact achieved TSLA price skyrockets. In other situation, FSD is still a party trick but TSLA stock you can sell and get some money back, possible (as it turned out in this case), a whole new Model S worth.
Tesla won't offer full refunds for anyone who ordered after mid-2019 as FSD was changed to include a lot of features that people have have been using for quite awhile.
But, I could see Tesla offering full refunds for the FSD portion of a < mid-2019 buyer for four reasons.
The number of buyers is relatively small
The dollar figure is fairly low as its $3K (for most)
The promise of autonomous driving was pretty direct on the order page itself
Most buyers will likely not take them up on the offer as they don't want to give up things like autosteer on city streets just to get $3K
Out of the $10k that they charged for FSD (now $12k) EAP was $5k. Meaning autosteer on city streets should be valued at $5k or $7k even for post 2019 buyers. And again I've posted it above, but the description on what FSD feature entails is still the same as before and it's posted on Autopilot | Tesla
But as whitex posted, and i didn't realize this, but if AP1 was advertised to meet you at the curb have something like smart summon and that feature was never released and was no refund, i expect it'll be the same for HW3+FSD Capability owners. People will switch into new cars...and eventually people will forget
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