Increased Car Prices and $12k FSD...Just Insanity!

[EVNow]

What existing federal regs do you think an AV would violate, specifically?

Because AFAIK there are none.

You can search and find articles on this. I'll lookup when I get some time.

ps : I think ultimately there will be rules about this, failure rates etc. - either before approval to sell or after the first serious accident.
pps : Some interesting stuff on NHTSA site.

Automated Vehicles for Safety | NHTSA

Get info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and learn about their safety potential.

www.nhtsa.gov

It is vital to emphasize that drivers will continue to share driving responsibilities for the foreseeable future and must remain engaged and attentive to the driving task and the road ahead with the consumer available technologies today. However, questions about liability and insurance are among many important questions, in addition to technical considerations that, policymakers are working to address before automated driving systems reach their maturity and are available to the public.​

 

[Daniel in SD]

You can search and find articles on this. I'll lookup when I get some time.

ps : I think ultimately there will be rules about this, failure rates etc. - either before approval to sell or after the first serious accident.
pps : Some interesting stuff on NHTSA site.

Automated Vehicles for Safety | NHTSA

Get info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and learn about their safety potential.

www.nhtsa.gov

It is vital to emphasize that drivers will continue to share driving responsibilities for the foreseeable future and must remain engaged and attentive to the driving task and the road ahead with the consumer available technologies today. However, questions about liability and insurance are among many important questions, in addition to technical considerations that, policymakers are working to address before automated driving systems reach their maturity and are available to the public.​

Liability and insurance are governed by state law. Please find out which NHTSA rules Cruise and Waymo are violating.

 

[Knightshade]

You can search and find articles on this. I'll lookup when I get some time.

I have. There appear to be no such regulations federally. Like, at all.

Hence my statement there is nothing stopping someone with a working L4 or L5 system from putting them on the road today without needing approval from anybody in a bunch of US states.... and needing nothing more than sending the state a letter in several more, no "approval" needed.

ps : I think ultimately there will be rules about this

Yes, I expect ultimately there will be federal rules of some kind.

There aren't now though. Just some suggestions that aren't binding on anybody in any way.

So there's no "waiting for regulators to approve" holding up anybody with a working L4 or L5 system from deploying them on public roads in some states right now.

What is holding them up is none of their systems work safely enough to roll out widely.

 

[EVNow]

I have. There appear to be no such regulations federally. Like, at all.

Well, then you will have to wait for me to search

However, questions about liability and insurance are among many important questions, in addition to technical considerations that, policymakers are working to address before automated driving systems reach their maturity and are available to the public.​

​

It is very clear to me from the above, NHTSA thinks you can't yet sell AVs to the public.

It is obvious just an academic discussion at this point, anyway, since AVs are not yet available and won't be for a number of years.

Liability and insurance are governed by state law. Please find out which NHTSA rules Cruise and Waymo are violating.

You didn't read the operative part highlighted above ...

 

[EVNow]

NHTSA Highlights Need For Specific Autonomous Vehicle Safety Regulations

Self-driving cars are just around the corner and their safety guidelines are need to be addressed.

insideevs.com

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has just published an extensive document detailing some of the changes it plans to implement in order to better cater for self-driving vehicles. Specifically, it is looking to enforce some exemptions from certain safety standards that wouldn’t apply to a driverless vehicle.​

​

Among the many statements made in the 147 page document (linked in the source at the bottom of the article) is one where the NHTSA explains it wants to​

Clarify ambiguities in current occupant protection standards for vehicles equipped with automated driving systems that are designed without traditional manual driver controls.

 

[EVNow]

Senators' proposal skirts NHTSA safety regulations for self-driving cars

The bipartisan proposal would allow up to 80,000 self-driving vehicles to ignore NHTSA safety standards if passed.

www.cnet.com

Autonomous vehicle development is big business nowadays, and as with many fast-growing industries, some people in both the public and private sectors worry that government regulations -- specifically safety regulations in this case -- are strangling progress.​

​

To attempt to alleviate that, two senators -- Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) -- are working to introduce legislation that would allow the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to exempt up to 15,000 self-driving vehicles per vehicle manufacturer from NHTSA safety standards, according to a report published Thursday by Reuters. There are also plans to further increase that number to 80,000 vehicles within three years. In case you were curious, the current exemption allows for just 2,500 vehicles.​

 

[Knightshade]

However, questions about liability and insurance are among many important questions, in addition to technical considerations that, policymakers are working to address before automated driving systems reach their maturity and are available to the public.​

​

It is very clear to me from the above, NHTSA thinks you can't yet sell AVs to the public.

No, just the opposite.

They know you can do it right now and they are anxious to get around to making some rules that currently don't exist around them.

The rest of your citations are around removing regulations that currently apply to "cars" in general such that they don't apply to autonomous ones.... that would be to permit stuff like "Selling a car that does not have a steering wheel"

The fact they currently must HAVE a steering wheel doesn't in any way stop you from selling an autonomous car today- it just means you need to take on the added expense of still including the wheel.


So again, there's no regulation whatsoever federally, today, that blocks you deploying/selling an L4 or L5 car right now in over half a dozen US states.

 

[EVNow]

No, just the opposite.

They know you can do it right now and they are anxious to get around to making some rules that currently don't exist around them.

That explains why ...

To attempt to alleviate that, two senators -- Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) -- are working to introduce legislation that would allow the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to exempt up to 15,000 self-driving vehicles per vehicle manufacturer from NHTSA safety standards,

 

[EVNow]

Recent Insights | White & Case LLP

www.whitecase.com

The NHTSA develops and interprets the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, or FMVSS, which are federal safety regulations for motor vehicles and most vehicle components and design features. The NHTSA also enforces compliance with the FMVSS through testing.​

​

Many regulations in the FMVSS include language predicated on human-operated vehicles rather than autonomous vehicles. If an autonomous vehicle cannot fit within the terms of the FMVSS, then that vehicle cannot comply with FMVSS safety regulations.​

....​

Unfortunately, not all requirements can be adapted so easily based on the NHTSA's interpretation of the "driver." The FMVSS also requires that indicators be visible to the driver; because the driver is software, there is no defined way for the NHTSA to verify compliance with this requirement.[7] Similarly, the FMVSS require self-cancelation of a turn signal based on steering wheel rotation and a manual control to cancel a turn signal.[8] While the FMVSS do not require a steering wheel and the NHTSA indicated it would agree that software-controlled canceling of a turn signal may satisfy the self-cancelation requirement, the requirement for a manual control to cancel the turn signal "cannot be addressed through interpretation alone."[9] The NHTSA indicated it had the same problem with the regulation requiring a control to manually switch between low and high beams. The NHTSA recognized that further rulemaking will be necessary to determine whether the above requirements are appropriate for autonomous vehicles and how to amend them to ensure autonomous vehicles could comply. However, the NHTSA noted that in the interim, these issues may be resolved by a well-supported petition for an exemption that shows the autonomous vehicle satisfies a standard "providing equal or greater safety" than the FMVSS provisions at issue.[10]​

 

[JulienW]

Interesting, a way of "charging more" money for a hi demand item without using a price increase. Although it did just go up $1K a few days ago.

Tesla is tripling your Model Y delivery time if you don't add on the $12,000 FSD option

Tesla's website configurator is prioritizing delivery times for Model Y reservations that include the $12,000 full self-driving option.

electrek.co

 

[EVNow]

Interesting, a way of "charging more" money for a hi demand item without using a price increase. Although it did just go up $1K a few days ago.

Tesla is tripling your Model Y delivery time if you don't add on the $12,000 FSD option

Tesla's website configurator is prioritizing delivery times for Model Y reservations that include the $12,000 full self-driving option.

electrek.co

Tesla has a big problem (good problem to have, though). How much to increase the price ... given insatiable demand.

Not increasing the price will effectively mean people arbitraging and selling the car immediately after taking delivery. Not exactly helpful, either.

Used Tesla Model Y selling for more than initial purchase price in China

The vast majority of Tesla Model Y vehicles for sale on multiple online used car trading platforms in China are priced above RMB 300,000 ($47,000).

cnevpost.com

 

[Knightshade]

The NHTSA develops and interprets the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, or FMVSS, which are federal safety regulations for motor vehicles and most vehicle components and design features. The NHTSA also enforces compliance with the FMVSS through testing.​

​

Many regulations in the FMVSS include language predicated on human-operated vehicles rather than autonomous vehicles. If an autonomous vehicle cannot fit within the terms of the FMVSS, then that vehicle cannot comply with FMVSS safety regulations.​

I'd love some examples of any current FMVSS reg an autonomous car (that still has all the same hardware as a "normal" car) can't comply with.

You suggest a few but they don't really hold up to any examination.

....​

Unfortunately, not all requirements can be adapted so easily based on the NHTSA's interpretation of the "driver." The FMVSS also requires that indicators be visible to the driver; because the driver is software, there is no defined way for the NHTSA to verify compliance with this requirement​

This makes no sense.

The same computers and software that would provide the indicator are the computers and software driving the car. So by definition it's aware of it. It's the one that would tell the human about it if one was there.

Of course such an autonomous vehicle could still show a visual indicator anyway that the car wouldn't care about, but would confirm the car "knew" the information to senators too luddite to understand what a computer even is.

.[7] Similarly, the FMVSS require self-cancelation of a turn signal based on steering wheel rotation and a manual control to cancel a turn signal.[8] While the FMVSS do not require a steering wheel and the NHTSA indicated it would agree that software-controlled canceling of a turn signal may satisfy the self-cancelation requirement, the requirement for a manual control to cancel the turn signal "cannot be addressed through interpretation alone."[9] The NHTSA indicated it had the same problem with the regulation requiring a control to manually switch between low and high beams.

Again these don't hold up to even a moment of thought.

It says the physical/manual controls must exist.

Not that the driver must use them.

So again, if the physical controls are there- you're good to go. Even if there's no human to touch them.

My Tesla has those controls right now.


As I said before--- all these remarks are really about changes to the regs so that you can make an autonomus car that removes physical controls

As long as you're ok still having the controls there, you can put the autonomous car on the road today

Without any approval or legal changes, federally.



Or put another way- Pretend Tesla updates FSD tomorrow and believes it's good enough to be level 5 (it's not remotely good enough, but take that as true).


Tesla could push that update, and announce the vehicle is L5, immediately in at least several US states that day... and several more just by submitting a form to those states that nobody has to check or sign off on.

There's nothing, federally, that would need "regulatory approval" at all.​

 

[Knightshade]

Interesting, a way of "charging more" money for a hi demand item without using a price increase. Although it did just go up $1K a few days ago.

Tesla is tripling your Model Y delivery time if you don't add on the $12,000 FSD option

Tesla's website configurator is prioritizing delivery times for Model Y reservations that include the $12,000 full self-driving option.

electrek.co

That headline is pretty dumb.... they're not "tripling your delivery time"

They just move the more expensive config to the front of the line.

As they've ALWAYS done with trim levels, and now do with FSD.

Go order a Performance model 3, the delivery date is sooner than an LR. Which itself is sooner than an SR. You've long been able to adjust delivery dates with other options too like wheels.

Highest margin goes first when you are production constrained. Not new, either to Tesla or production constrained products in general.

 

[EVNow]

That headline is pretty dumb.... they're not "tripling your delivery time"

They just move the more expensive config to the front of the line.

As they've ALWAYS done with trim levels, and now do with FSD.

Got August deliver at estimate for out Y because of 7 seater option vs end of the year at that time.

 

[EVNow]

You suggest a few but they don't really hold up to any examination.

The article suggested a few.

If we keep searching (i've only gone through first 2 pages of search results), I'm sure we'll find more examples.

But, it doesn't really matter what I or you think. There is enough ambiguity in there that lawyers are worried about it enough to try to get senators to pass a law around it and for NHTSA to issue various statements about it.

Since it is all anyway academic, since there are no AVs to be approved now, I'm not going to waste any more of my time on it.

 

[Knightshade]

The article suggested a few.

If we keep searching (i've only gone through first 2 pages of search results), I'm sure we'll find more examples.

You'll find zero.

Because there are zero.

But, it doesn't really matter what I or you think. There is enough ambiguity in there that lawyers are worried about it enough to try to get senators to pass a law around it and for NHTSA to issue various statements about it.

NOPE!

They're trying to get new regs to remove needing things like a steering wheel.

They don't need to change anything to roll out L4 or L5 driving to EXISTING cars that already have manual controls.


In fact, guess what!

Timely story just published explaining exactly that is what just happened!

U.S. eliminates human controls requirement for fully automated vehicles

U.S. regulators on Thursday issued final rules eliminating the need for automated vehicle manufacturers to equip fully autonomous vehicles with manual driving controls to meet crash standards.

www.reuters.com

NHTSA said existing regulations do not currently bar deploying automated vehicles as long as they have manual driving controls

So if you won't believe me, will you believe the NHTSA literally telling you the same thing?


The "OMG WE MUST WAIT ON REGULATORS" nonsense is absolutely untrue

There are no federal regs in the way of L4 or L5 today

And it's legal in over half a dozen US states today

 

[Daniel in SD]

The NHTSA must have been reading this thread and decided to address @EVNow’s concerns.

 

[EVNow]

The NHTSA must have been reading this thread and decided to address @EVNow’s concerns.

Not just that couple of senators went back in time and tried to legislate based on those concerns !

 

[dramsey]

I saw this reported, but didn’t believe it until I went to the Tesla ordering page for the Model Y and tried it myself…

If you order a standard Model Y, the delivery date is shown as “September 2022”. If you add Full Self Driving— which of course doesn’t change the physical production of the car in any way— the delivery date is May 2022.

So that $12K doesn’t just get your FSD; it moves your delivery date up by 4 months!

 

[Knightshade]

I saw this reported, but didn’t believe it until I went to the Tesla ordering page for the Model Y and tried it myself…

If you order a standard Model Y, the delivery date is shown as “September 2022”. If you add Full Self Driving— which of course doesn’t change the physical production of the car in any way— the delivery date is May 2022.

So that $12K doesn’t just get your FSD; it moves your delivery date up by 4 months!

Tesla has always prioritized higher margin vehicles... go swap your config to a P for example and see how much better the delivery date is than a regular LR.

They've just started including FSD in that calculation.