EcoHeliGuy
Member
My first choice is cloth seats, I love everything about leather seats except hot days and owning them 
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Thalass
Model 3 reserved zomg
I assure you that as soon as they can, airline pilots let the autopilot take over and drink their coffee. They're still there to manage things, and supervise, but they don't do much hands-on flying.
Which is something kids should be taught, actually. Since they'll be managing the car more than actually driving it in the future. Done right it'll make things much safer. The human can look around for hazards, navigate, etc while the car does the actual driving.
MrBoylan
Member
Simple solution: Get better Facebook friends.ha. My husband thinks I'm a dork. He was traveling yesterday and I kept sending him screen shots of the tweets. And I'm told not to post any more Tesla stuff on my FB.
My personal belief/projection is that the full incentive will be available through the end of 2018. This would happen if car #200K in the US is delivered on or after July 1, 2018. Assuming they ramp up Model 3 projection by then, this will lead to a lot of happy Model 3 buyers. And a whole lot less CO2 in the atmosphere in the coming years. Assuming you get something other than a stripped base model, I think it's very likely your purchase will be eligible for the tax credit.
MrBoylan
Member
But he does have his moments... like when he tweeted (about whether there would be a Model X with 70 kWh battery) "something like a 70, but probably around 12 months from now" and then 6 months later, the 75D Model X was announced, coming in June (a little earlier than expected).
Who else wants to have a beer with ohmman and talk about... well... anything?
MrBoylan
Member
I believe he believes it, but I also believe that he believed the Model X would go into production in 2013 (when he said that in 2011 and 2012). In that case, priorities changed, and they ran into many issues with the complexity, but 2 years of slippage was painful for some.
The part that worries me a little is this... "I do feel... fairly confident that it will be next year."
When Are Deliveries (of the Model 3)? Next Year!
EVie'sDad
Member
Cat hair too, we have 5 cats, and often the trunk/frunk shows cat hair, but the leather interior hides any that may be carried into the vehicle.I wouldn't bet on that. We have a Corgi (shedding machine) and it's impossible to keep the cloth seats fur free. Even the most advanced Dyson, which we have, cannot remove hairs that are literally embedded in the weave of the cloth - no matter how tight a weave. It can only remove surface hairs. To remove the embedded hairs, you gotta pluck them out by hand, one by one. We know the pain.
When we know we are going to have a co-worker or guest ride with us, we make sure to take our second car with the leather seats. That one only needs a simple wipe down with a lint roller. Waiting for the day we have both cars with leather seats and we don't get to fight over which one gets to drive that car!
EcoHeliGuy
Member
I believe he believes it, but I also believe that he believed the Model X would go into production in 2013 (when he said that in 2011 and 2012). In that case, priorities changed, and they ran into many issues with the complexity, but 2 years of slippage was painful for some.
The part that worries me a little is this... "I do feel... fairly confident that it will be next year."
When Are Deliveries (of the Model 3)? Next Year!
People keep blindly stating that the cars were late. They were a product of larger complexities.
Model S needed a factory, distribution network, service network, parts suppliers, and a corporate foundation. Once those were in place the Model S was built.
Model X was an afterthought that was fast tracked. Instead of attempting Model 3 first, Model X became the trial run on producing a second model. Unlike the Model 3, Model X needed to be built on the same assembly line as the Model S without effecting the production of the lader. This was a huge feat, which Tesla succeeded at. Yes the Falcon Wing Door hardware was an issue, but this issue wasn't the reason for the long delay, only in the last few months, and I bet it didn't actually delay the Model X much at that stage, just another factor.
The Model 3 gets its own assembly line and doesn't effect the Model S or X. Has distribution, and a service network. But 400k reservations may change the assembly plans which is where I'm sure the limiting factor will be. After that much success, I have some doubt international models will be produced in Fremont.
Even the Gigafactory may not be a limiting factor. It will probably produce batteries for the Model S&X before the Model 3 starts. And Telsa has never stated to my knowledge that 100% of the batteries need to come from there for the Model 3.
When looking at their past history, I am sadly in firm belief that the M3 will not go into production on time. If it does, I believe it will be in very limited quantities. Tesla has absolutely no experience in mass production on a real Ford or GM type of mass production scale. There are going to be big learning curves. Elon is an idealist and realism has a tendency of coming up and biting you in the ass. Too many puzzle pieces have to come together in exactly the right way for this M3 venture to pull off without a hitch. This isn't like Ford and their $450k GT or Koeniggsegg and their supercar which are hand built limited edition pieces of art and technology. This is real mass production with variables on the scale that Tesla will have never experienced with the S and X. If Elon pulls it off, I will be impressed. If he doesn't, I will not be too upset. In a way, I am glad that the west coast will get to debug the cars before the rest of us towards the east will get it.I believe he believes it, but I also believe that he believed the Model X would go into production in 2013 (when he said that in 2011 and 2012). In that case, priorities changed, and they ran into many issues with the complexity, but 2 years of slippage was painful for some.
The part that worries me a little is this... "I do feel... fairly confident that it will be next year."
When Are Deliveries (of the Model 3)? Next Year!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't think a lot of people will disagree with this.
The question is - how fast will they ramp up. Will they make 10k, 50k (as GCR thinks), 100k (my high end number) in 2018. Even 100k puts my own 3 no earlier than 2019 i.e. 3 years away.
I'd love to have a beer with many of the varied and interesting members of this forum. Going to Connect this year?Who else wants to have a beer with ohmman and talk about... well... anything?
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Volume production of small 4 door sedans is pretty well developed. They do this in over 10 countries, and many of them are poorly developed with limited technology and trained population.
San Francisco has a ready source of technology and trained population. Like Germany, the wages are relatively high, however the higher quality of assembly and skills offset that to some degree.
Believe the Model 3 will use classic production techniques along with enhanced robotics and quality controls.
Tesla is becoming more vertically integrated and does much of the design, mold making, stamping, interiors, motors etc in house.
Most of the problems they have seen with the S and X have been traced back to their outside suppliers.
Believe Tesla will start with one production line for the Model 3. Get that debugged and running smoothly. Learn from those experiences and quickly ramp up with the number of assembly lines necessary to obtain the volume the marketplace will demand.
Believe the future of Tesla automotive is very positive.
San Francisco has a ready source of technology and trained population. Like Germany, the wages are relatively high, however the higher quality of assembly and skills offset that to some degree.
Believe the Model 3 will use classic production techniques along with enhanced robotics and quality controls.
Tesla is becoming more vertically integrated and does much of the design, mold making, stamping, interiors, motors etc in house.
Most of the problems they have seen with the S and X have been traced back to their outside suppliers.
Believe Tesla will start with one production line for the Model 3. Get that debugged and running smoothly. Learn from those experiences and quickly ramp up with the number of assembly lines necessary to obtain the volume the marketplace will demand.
Believe the future of Tesla automotive is very positive.
MrBoylan
Member
Not an owner yet, and I believe that's on the West Coast, right? Probably not in the cards. I just find your posts to be both informative and balanced. Are you sure you belong on an internet forum?I'd love to have a beer with many of the varied and interesting members of this forum. Going to Connect this year?
Don't need to be an owner, just a Tesla enthusiast - and a TMC contributor.. you easily check the boxes. But yeah, Southern California this year.
Thanks for the kind words!
MrBoylan
Member
I assure you I did not state this blindly. My typing isn't very good with my eyes closed.
I know there were reasons that the Model X was late, but late it was: 2 years after the initial delivery estimate. The Model S demand was higher than anticipated, the Model X was more complex than "necessary" (frankly, I think the design is perfect except for the non-folding seats). I also understand that, due to battery pricing, they weren't ready to commit to the Model 3 pricing and availability before they had a good idea as to when the gigafactory would be up and running and the pack costs reduced enough to make a Model 3 feasible. So taking that little side trip on the Model X made sense.
But they're apparently still having production issues with the Model X (ask the Sigs and early P90D orderers with the March delivery dates who still don't have their cars).
I am encouraged by the updated delivery dates in the design studio (May for 90/90D, June for 75D). This implies that Tesla believes it has worked out most of the kinks in quality and supply, but this could also be partially due to a lower than expected order confirmation rate.
As for the 3, offering the Model 3 first batch to SpaceX and Tesla employees first is a brilliant move for a couple of reasons: a.) it rewards those who put their blood, sweat and tears into the companies and their products but also b.) it's easier to have employees commit to NDAs when they get their cars. I bet Tesla keeps a pretty tight lid on the early Model 3 issues and will not even start building "current owner" cars until they've got a large fleet of Model 3s out and around town with real world experience.
I hope Tesla is able to get the first batch of Model 3s out in 2017, but even if they do, I wouldn't expect the production ramp to begin until mid 2018. But there are too many variables right now for me to have any confidence in anyone's projections of Model 3 ramp (even my own). Good thing I'm not a financial analyst.
MrBoylan
Member
That is the $64,000 question (or the $35,000 question... or the $7,500 question). But delivery is also determined by configuration and location. You're at least a little closer to California than I am so you've got that on your side. And if you're planning (or willing) to load it up with the larger battery, premium package, performance upgrade, etc., you could very well take delivery in 2018. And if you move to California and get a job at Tesla, you may get one even sooner.
I don't think Tesla has (or will) reveal the geographic distribution of reservations. If it matches 2015 deliveries, then that would mean about half of the 400,000+ reservations are from the US. And while I'm sure *some* employees of SpaceX/Tesla and *some* existing Tesla owners will get their cars before regular folk, I do not believe that *all* employees and current owners will get cars before the rest of us. I do think they'll treat employees (and maybe current customers) like "Founders:" highest optioned cars in those pools will be built early and delivered to a large pool of these "beta testers." They will pause to collect data, identify issues, tweak production, shake out any supply issues, before diving into larger volume production. And then they will start building the higher option cars for non-owners, non-employees, hopefully quickly. And so on down the line.
EcoHeliGuy
Member
That is the $64,000 question (or the $35,000 question... or the $7,500 question). But delivery is also determined by configuration and location. You're at least a little closer to California than I am so you've got that on your side. And if you're planning (or willing) to load it up with the larger battery, premium package, performance upgrade, etc., you could very well take delivery in 2018. And if you move to California and get a job at Tesla, you may get one even sooner.
I don't think Tesla has (or will) reveal the geographic distribution of reservations. If it matches 2015 deliveries, then that would mean about half of the 400,000+ reservations are from the US. And while I'm sure *some* employees of SpaceX/Tesla and *some* existing Tesla owners will get their cars before regular folk, I do not believe that *all* employees and current owners will get cars before the rest of us. I do think they'll treat employees (and maybe current customers) like "Founders:" highest optioned cars in those pools will be built early and delivered to a large pool of these "beta testers." They will pause to collect data, identify issues, tweak production, shake out any supply issues, before diving into larger volume production. And then they will start building the higher option cars for non-owners, non-employees, hopefully quickly. And so on down the line.
Just like the whole west coast first thing, it doesn't mean east coast is last. And my bet is that a lot of the mid area is last.
After the west coast initial issues are sorted out the cars will likely hit popular tesla markets like the superchargers did. Then fill in the areas between.
Then things look better for me in Cincinnati OH. I swear that there are Teslas everywhere I go. Usually they are in the fast lane passing everyone which I see as a good thing since I hate people who cause traffic to back up.
The bad news is that should I continue with my reservation, it will be a rather lightly optioned one. I am mostly concerned with AWD and a larger battery and maybe some of the options that cannot be added via software update. I just wish Tesla would give us some more specifics with regards to pricing.
EcoHeliGuy
Member
Tesla didn't officially unveil option pricing on the Model X until this week. You have awhile to wait.
