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Discussion in 'Cars and Transportation' started by XtremeCarsandStars, Oct 19, 2006.
Are the green cars and or smart cars going to be a fade?
Re: Is It Just Another Fad? Green Cars, Smart Cars etc...
I, for one, sure hope not!
Although I do think it's still too soon to have an EV be very successful, I believe that it is the only acceptable long-term solution for the worlds environment, not to mention the security and life of the US economy. The reason I think it's still too soon, is that I believe we still don't have an acceptable energy storage solution that's affordable, safe, long lasting, and quick recharging, while providing an acceptable driving range. The more affordable, the more people that will be able to consider it. Until we have an infrastructure in place, as well as the ability to do a quick recharge, we will have to fall back on having sufficient range to allow for a full day of driving (and of course it will be up to each individual as to what is an acceptable range). Currently to accomplish this, the battery requirements are too costly and weight entirely too much.
I believe we will get there and that Tesla will help provide the motivation, but it's not yet a solution that a significant portion of the public will accept. Until then, Tesla seems to have a valid business plan where the wealthy can purchase what's currently available with the rest of us following as the technology becomes advanced enough for the rest of us to consider.
Regardless of whether you believe in global warming, and regardless of whether you think "peak oil" is upon us. . . There's no question that the USA's dependence on foreign oil has become a serious problem. That alone should be enough reason to push this technology forward.
I think Martin Eberhard had it right when he said, the right time to get into a market is when the widget you're building has become just barely possible. If you try to get in too soon (EV1?) then you can't build a product people will accept and you don't have a business. If you wait too long, then other companies have moved in and staked out the territory for themselves.
At Tesla they believe they are hitting that sweet spot, where battery technology and electric motors have advanced and made a practical electric car just barely possible -- and it'll only get better from here.
Since Tesla is a Silicon Valley company. . . One might think of the Tesla Roadster as the Apple II of electric cars. It's right at the beginning, but it could be the beginning of something much bigger.
"One might think of the Tesla Roadster as the Apple II of electric cars."
So Electric cars with only gain 7 percent of the market.
I like the sound of that (from a pragmatic standpoint) it seems real.
What do you mean by that? I think you completely misunderstood me.
I mean, the Tesla Roadster is like the Apple II because the Apple II was the first really successful microcomuter for ordinary people -- and now they're everwhere. There were earlier computers like the MITS Altair, but the technology wasn't quite ready yet, and they weren't polished enough and made usable by ordinary people. There were also companies that came along later with great products, like Commodore Amiga (or NeXT or Be), but failed because other companies (Apple and IBM) had already locked up the marketplace.
I'm not entirely sure what this has to do with site feedback but whatever,lol.
I really dont think the Apple II is a good analogy then. If the Tesla were a 4door sedan priced around 30K I'd say it's the apple II but the roadster isn't a vehicle the average person can buy and doesn't fit the needs of the average person. The Roadster is a mixture of a design study, weekend toy, and publicity stunt. I want one for it's unque perfomance and novel ideas, not becuase it would be terribly practical in the IL winters I'm used to or on the longer road trips I frequently take. I have my MINI for those situations. A Tesla fits 3/4s of my needs for 3/4s of the year and I'm single with no children or pets, far more "free" in selecting my vehicles than the average consumer. The roadster is an elite vehicle that will only be owned and appreciated by a select few. What they come out with next will hopefully be the car that's "polished enough and...usable by ordinary people".
I was simply reffering to Apple's share of the home computer market today.
The analogy is partially valid but I would submit that back then no one had a personal computer. They had to sell the entire concept of owning/needing a product that they never owned before.
Probably not too many first time car buyers will be purchasing the Roadster for awhile.
Maybe a CD or DVD player?
The Apple II was actually useful for a few people -- businesses could run spreadsheets and professional writers could probably justify the cost for a word processor. But. . . For an awful lot of people those early computers were a toy and a fad. I remember well in the early 1980s when computer mania was running rampant and everybody was learning BASIC and playing primitive games. That really can't be described as much more than a fad. However, people were crazy about the new technology and the novelty of it all. I can see some of that same excitement in reactions to the Tesla Roadster. There's definitely geek appeal.
A few days ago I met one of my programmer friends online (in Second Life, appropriately) and mentioned to him that I'd found a new car I wanted. His response: "Tesla Roadster, right?" I hadn't even spoken with this guy for the last couple of years, but he guessed it instantly.
Also, while I am waxing nostalgic. . . I remember in 1982 when I went shopping for a computer, the Apple II was still available for $1600 (sans disk drive) while the newer and somewhat more advanced Commodore 64 was $250. It was amazing how the prices dropped over only a few short years and fuelled the computer-buying craze. (For those who couldn't afford even the C64, you could buy a fake computer to set up in your home, and everyone would think you were keeping up with the Joneses.)