I have gone through hours of the existing threads, but didn't find what I was looking for, so here goes. I have not yet, but would like to put down my deposit on an M3 ( Mid Feb 2017). Speculation is that the full tax credit would expire at a delivery date end of June 2018. Granted that I live in the Midwest, and would be looking for somewhat of a base model D, what do you think the chances are of getting the full credit, or even the half credit if it expires in Dec 2018. I guess what it comes down to is how fast can Tesla deliver vehicles in that 6 month window.
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JeffK
Well-Known Member
If we assume that the 200,000th US delivery happens in Q1 2018 then
Q1 full credit ($7500)
Q2 full credit ($7500)
Q3 half credit ($3750)
Q4 half credit ($3750)
Q1 2019 quarter credit ($1875)
Q2 2019 quarter credit ($1875)
So, you might get something at least until the end of June 2019.
Should they hit 200,000 in Q4 2017 then the credits would end at the end of March 2019.
It's in everyone's best interest if they hit the 200,000th mark at the very beginning of a quarter.
Q1 full credit ($7500)
Q2 full credit ($7500)
Q3 half credit ($3750)
Q4 half credit ($3750)
Q1 2019 quarter credit ($1875)
Q2 2019 quarter credit ($1875)
So, you might get something at least until the end of June 2019.
Should they hit 200,000 in Q4 2017 then the credits would end at the end of March 2019.
It's in everyone's best interest if they hit the 200,000th mark at the very beginning of a quarter.
WileyTheMan
Peanut Gallery Member
I would estimate *full* federal tax credit ending in the first quarter of 2018, based on past quarter deliveries. Not even factoring in any Model 3s they might get out in 2017.
I'd say you still have a shot at some amount of tax credit.
But it's all speculation. You simply won't get a firm answer until they get closer to the magical 200k mark.
I'd say you still have a shot at some amount of tax credit.
But it's all speculation. You simply won't get a firm answer until they get closer to the magical 200k mark.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Without Model 3 there's no way they'd hit 200,000 in 2017.
You'd need even higher production than 2016 AND you'd need 100% of all sales to go to US customers. It's not going to happen. The only way they hit 200,000 in 2017 is if the Model 3 ramps up quickly.
alseTrick
Active Member
You might luck out into the $1,875 credit in 2019 (I personally wouldn't count on it when determining your finances). But the full tax credit? I think that's 100% no shot.
WileyTheMan
Peanut Gallery Member
Ah, I forgot to factor in non-US sales. You're right, That stretches it out a bit.
I remember when this tool first appeared. I thought it was well understood that there are far too many unknown variables to allow any reasoned estimate.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
Unless deliveries are significantly delayed, it is a pretty well thought out "good guess".
If you put your deposit down now and ordered a highly optioned model, at least a D with the big battery, you might have an outside shot at the 3750, but that depends on a lot of stars lining up in your favor. As others have stated getting the 7500 ranges from miraculous to impossible!
Go for it! You should know by the end of the year whether to just ask for your 1000 bucks back and it might end up saving you several grand. However, I think the 1875 is the most realistic hope.
Just for curiosity sake, I plugged a 75D into the calculator for someone making a deposit in the Midwest today. It said early February 2019. My hunch is rollout will start a little late, and 200k (with Model S&X) will hit early 2018, but production won't ramp up that fast and you'd be fortunate to get it before June 2019.
If you put your deposit down now and ordered a highly optioned model, at least a D with the big battery, you might have an outside shot at the 3750, but that depends on a lot of stars lining up in your favor. As others have stated getting the 7500 ranges from miraculous to impossible!
Go for it! You should know by the end of the year whether to just ask for your 1000 bucks back and it might end up saving you several grand. However, I think the 1875 is the most realistic hope.
Just for curiosity sake, I plugged a 75D into the calculator for someone making a deposit in the Midwest today. It said early February 2019. My hunch is rollout will start a little late, and 200k (with Model S&X) will hit early 2018, but production won't ramp up that fast and you'd be fortunate to get it before June 2019.
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Hi. The tax credits situation is explained here on the fueleconomy.gov website. Scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section. If Tesla hits 200K in Q1 2018, the deadlines will be as follows:
If Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries in Q1 2018:
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
Notice that the deadlines don't change whether Tesla hits 200K on January 1st, 2018 or March 31st, 2018. We don't need to know the exact date they will hit 200K USA sales. We just need to know the quarter. As of today, I'm calculating 113,568 units delivered in the USA and I would expect Tesla to hit 200K on Jan 11th, 2018. For more details, click here and scroll to the right. Of course, there is a chance they might hit 200K in Q4 2017. In that case, the deadlines would look like this:
If Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries in Q4 2017:
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
Hi, @azred. I'm the author of that tool. I'm more confident about the accuracy of the tax credits deadlines it shows than the accuracy of the estimated delivery dates. It is hard to estimate when somebody might get their Model 3 but it is easier to estimate how much tax credits they might receive as long as you can guess the 200K date within a quarter and the delivery date within a 6 month period. For example, if Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries on any day in Q1 2018 and the delivery date is between 1 Jan 2019 and 30 Jun 2019, tax credits will be $1,875 USD. If delivery is between 1 Jul 2018 and 31 Dec 2018, then $3,750 USD and for deliveries until 30 Jun 2018, it's $7500.
If Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries in Q1 2018:
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
Notice that the deadlines don't change whether Tesla hits 200K on January 1st, 2018 or March 31st, 2018. We don't need to know the exact date they will hit 200K USA sales. We just need to know the quarter. As of today, I'm calculating 113,568 units delivered in the USA and I would expect Tesla to hit 200K on Jan 11th, 2018. For more details, click here and scroll to the right. Of course, there is a chance they might hit 200K in Q4 2017. In that case, the deadlines would look like this:
If Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries in Q4 2017:
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
Hi, @azred. I'm the author of that tool. I'm more confident about the accuracy of the tax credits deadlines it shows than the accuracy of the estimated delivery dates. It is hard to estimate when somebody might get their Model 3 but it is easier to estimate how much tax credits they might receive as long as you can guess the 200K date within a quarter and the delivery date within a 6 month period. For example, if Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries on any day in Q1 2018 and the delivery date is between 1 Jan 2019 and 30 Jun 2019, tax credits will be $1,875 USD. If delivery is between 1 Jul 2018 and 31 Dec 2018, then $3,750 USD and for deliveries until 30 Jun 2018, it's $7500.
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deonb
Active Member
Buy a Model S first, and then order a Model 3. You'll go on the prior owner waiting list.
Oh, and move to California.
Oh, and move to California.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Historically Tesla ships fully equipped (higher priced) before the base units.
You can improve your chances by accepting delivery of the more expensive ones instead of waiting for a no options car.
You can improve your chances by accepting delivery of the more expensive ones instead of waiting for a no options car.
Hi, @mrtian97. They are counting the number of eligible cars sold by each manufacturer, not the number of people who claim. It is explained here on the fueleconomy.gov website. Scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section. Also, there is one additional quarter after the 200K quarter. Therefore people will know in advance.
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BluestarE3
Active Member
Will that be a union job by the time I get hired? I feel a sore back coming on.And get a job at Tesla.
Thanks for all the replies. Seems like everyone was on a pretty similar understanding. I might have a chance at getting the tail end of the tax credit. Probably best to put up the grand and see which way the wind blows.
This will likely only be true early on. By the time you get to a reservation that's placed now it probably won't matter how highly optioned the car is.
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