It's the Batteries, Stupid!

[jerry33]

DSM363 lives in Texas :wink:

LOL

But still, most of the people I know drive 600 miles or more on vacation. Here is a list for the past few years:

DATE__________ODO____INC_____AVG
--- Trip to NE -10F blowing and drifting snow.
02/02/04_____3588____212____39.9 (5.9)
02/02/04_____3872____283____39.7 (5.9)
02/05/04_____4162____290____39.2 (6.0)
02/08/04_____4413____250____37.8 (6.2)
02/08/04_____4698____285____38.1 (6.1)
02/13/04_____5089____390____44.6 (5.3)
--- End Trip to NE
--- Trip to San Antonio hard rain on the way there.
11/22/04____15666____517____57.4 (4.1)
11/26/04____16154____487____54.3 (4.3)
11/30/04____16639____484____59.5 (4.0)
--- End trip to San Antonio
--- Trip to NE
05/01/05____22373____456____52.6 (4.5)
05/01/05____22754____377____51.0 (4.6)
05/04/05____23130____379____49.8 (4.7)
05/08/05____23558____428____48.9 (4.8)
--- Caught in construction. 10 miles in four hours
05/10/05____23972____413____46.3 (5.1)
--- End trip to NE
--- Trip to NE
02/11/06____34290____458____51.3 (4.6)
02/11/06____34606____315____41.6 (5.7)
02/14/06____34993____387____47.8 (4.9)
-- Alignment problem ends here
-- 5 F here
02/17/06____35293____299____46.8 (5.0)
-- 32 F here
02/17/06____35662____369____52.1 (4.5)
--- Trip to NE ends here
--- Trip to KS starts here
09/14/07____60353____507____57.9 (4.1)
09/15/07____60832____478____52.4 (4.5)
09/15/07____61249____417____51.5 (4.6)
--- Trip to KS ends here
--- Scanguage used regularly starts here
--- Trip to NE starts here
09/22/07____61791____540____60.5 (3.9)
09/22/07____62261____469____54.4 (4.3)
09/23/07____62731____470____53.7 (4.4)
--- Trip to NE ends here
--- Trip to KY starts here
10/11/08____79725____544____57.3 (4.6)
10/12/08____80252____526____56.4 (4.2)
10/14/08____80769____516____56.6 (4.2)
10/15/08____81286____516____56.2 (4.2)
--- Trip to KY ends here
--- Trip to NE starts here
11/08/08____83688____416____52.5 (4.5)
11/09/08____84087____399____51.7 (4.5)
11/09/08____84542____454____54.1 (4.3)
--- Trip to NE ends here
--- Trip to AZ starts here
12/04/08____85560____501____62.3 (3.8)
-- 27 F here
12/06/08____85929____368____53.4 (4.4)
12/07/08____86322____392____56.7 (4.1)
12/08/08____86800____478____60.8 (3.9)
12/13/08____87232____431____57.4 (4.1)
12/14/08____87673____440____63.3 (3.9)
-- 25 F here and 50 mph winds
12/17/08____88133____459____56.3 (4.2)
--- Trip to AZ ends here
--- Trip to NE starts here
06/13/09____95529____464____57.9 (4.1)
06/18/09____96021____492____54.7 (4.3)
06/21/09____96557____535____55.0 (4.3)
06/27/09____97073____516____57.2 (4.1)
--- Trip to NE ends here
--- Trip to NE starts here
--- Four hours of hard rain
10/09/09____100520____569____63.9 (3.7)
10/09/09____100967____446____51.3 (4.6)
--- It snowed here
--- Trip to MO starts here
--- Five people plus luggage
10/16/09____101312____344____51.4 (4.6)
10/17/09____101759____447____53.8 (4.4)
--- Trip to MO ends here
10/18/09____102219____460____54.7 (4.3)
10/28/09____102716____496____58.5 (4.0)
--- Trip to NE ends here
--- Trip to NE starts here
08/13/10____111690____625____59.8 (3.9)
08/14/10____112308____618____60.0 (3.9)
08/20/10____112972____663____64.2 (3.7)
08/22/10____113411____438____58.9 (4.0)
08/31/10____113922____510____61.8 (3.8)
--- Trip to NE ends here
--- Trip to NE starts here
01/07/12____128603____481____56.6 (4.2)
-- 13 F here
01/12/12____129042____438____52.7 (4.5)
01/15/12____129420____378____50.3 (4.7)
01/20/12____129094____481____56.2 (4.2)
--- Trip to NE ends here

 

[JRP3]

Most people don't live in Texas. Anecdotal evidence doesn't tell a whole lot, we know that the majority of all trips are less than 40 miles each day, the type of trips you are describing are probably less than .1% of all travel and far from normal. Personally my idea of a vacation is not sitting in a car for hours on end, though it does happen occasionally. If a trip can't be done on a single charge of a 300 mile pack I probably don't want to go any further anyway.

 

[jerry33]

Getting there is half the fun. Driving on the state roads rather than the freeway is a whole different experience. I agree that driving on the freeway for hours isn't much fun.

 

[dsm363]

Yeah. You can drive 800 miles and still be in Texas, you're right. Every vacation I've been on since I've lived here I've flown since I was leaving the state. If you drive, you're right. I don't expect the Suoercharger network to be valuable here for a few years.

jerry33: you certainly drive alot! You might be better off keeping your old ICE around if you frequently take trips like that. Would probably make travel easier.

 

[EVNow]

Being able to drive 600-700 miles in a day is a requirement for replacing the primary car...

Not sure what your definition of "primary" is - but for me Leaf has replaced my primary car. I use it for more than 90% of the trips. For the rest we use my wife's ICE, which I consider my backup car. Similar to the way I define "primary" residence and vacation home.

 

[jerry33]

To me "primary" means the car I have that is reliable enough to take on vacation and also use as a daily driver.

 

[jerry33]

Every vacation I've been on since I've lived here I've flown

The problem I have with flying is that

A) I've flown so many miles over the years that if I never fly again it won't bother me a bit and

B) By the time you take an hour to drive to the airport, wait two hours in the airport, wait another hour to pick up a rental car, you could have driven half-way there and not have to put up with all the inconvenience. And now that the gestapo is at every airport--Well, I really don't like the feeling of being treated like a criminal--and I doubt they do anything to actually reduce terrorist incidents. And even in the Prius it costs less than $100 for most of the trips I take. The Model S should cut that in half.

jerry33: you certainly drive alot!

I thought I hardly drove at all these days When I lived in Vancouver I used to drive regularly to places like Winnepeg, Thunder Bay, Saskatoon, etc. I also flew to those places, but typically I had too much equipment to fly. And that driving was mostly in a Land-Rover Series III.

You might be better off keeping your old ICE around if you frequently take trips like that. Would probably make travel easier.

The ICE car that I'm likely to keep is the 2001 Prius (and sell the 2004 Prius). My goal is to go on vacations in style with the Model S.

 

[Norbert]

First, I agree with the previous point that the energy density of a battery doesn't have to be similar to gas (not only because one needs to compare the weight of the whole drive train).

A discussion among EV owners might lead to the result that 245 miles range is enough. Because it can be enough (and most have ICEs additionally). Yet, while many Roadster owners want a future battery upgrade to reduce the weight for the same range (some because they use a larger ICE for long trips anyway), many are asking for an increased range. However it will be a long time before 500 or 600 mile batteries are so affordable that every EV has one. Fast chargers are a way to extend the range. Selling EVs with a shorter range and without a current fast charging network should not go at the cost of creating pessimism or ignorance around fast charging, as that will also need to be part of the EV future. And it should not go at the cost of creating the impression that EV enthusiasts don't understand that people want range and a fast charging infrastructure. In a recent discussion with Chris Paine the point was made that changing people's mind could be more difficult than supplying the technology. Also, people often don't want their mind to be changed. And I agree with that, having listened to probably every argument that EV enthusiasts have made to convince people that 73 or 120 or even 200 miles is all they need. I don't think it is, even if the market for 120 miles EVs should be more than large enough, if one can show in how many cases it suffices. Because in many cases it does. Still, the big change (which we hopefully want) requires more than that.

 

[jerry33]

Most people don't live in Texas.

Perhaps most people don't, however Houston is the 4th largest city in the U.S., Dallas is the 9th and Austin is the 14th so there are quite a few folks who live in Texas. It's not like I'm talking about Grand Island or Beatrice.

I agree that anecdotal evidence doesn't mean a whole lot and I can only provide one data point (but it's an accurate data point. ) Still, numbers taken from the overall population may not be relevant to the population considering purchasing a Tesla--or they might be. I don't have information about that.

 

[dsm363]

The infrastructure to take 800 mile trips through Texas and only stop for 45 minutes each 200 miles to charge is probably a few years off. How often do you take these long trips? If the Model S suits 90%+ of your travel the I think you'll be good since you'll still have the Prius for long trips (if you're not willing to charge for a few hours a stop).

You said you want to take the Model S on these long trips but don't want to wait more than an hour for charging. Once the Supercharger network is up, that kind of travel will be easier.

 

[JRP3]

I agree that the Tesla buying population is probably more likely to take more long trips than the average individual, but they are also probably more likely to have access to additional vehicles or other modes of transport. I understand preferring to take your EV instead, which should be possible eventually.

 

[jerry33]

On average, twice a year. I'm likely to charge for a few hours on long trips, but of course, I'd much rather not And perhaps I can go 400 miles on a charge after I learn to drive the Tesla efficiently. My last fill in the Prius was 72.2 mpg.

 

[dsm363]

400 miles on the 85kWh pack would probably mean you're driving an average of 40 mph (just a guess) but definitely less than what people drive on Texas highways. Might be possible on smaller state highways but then there are also less places to charge. For only twice a year, it'd probably be less hassle to just take the Prius but you could take the Model S if you plan ahead. You'd probably need three stops at campgrounds with 40A charging to make an 800 mile trip.

 

[jerry33]

400 miles on the 85kWh pack would probably mean you're driving an average of 40 mph (just a guess) but definitely less than what people drive on Texas highways. Might be possible on smaller state highways but then there are also less places to charge.

I've found that with the Prius you can get quite a bit better mpg by using additional instrumentation and driving to it (I use the Scangauge). By speeding up on the downhill parts and slowing down on the uphill parts you can reduce the amount of energy you use and still travel close the same average speed.

I always travel on the state highways whenever possible because they are more interesting to drive on and have almost no traffic. In many places the state highways parallel the interstate so it's only a couple of miles out of the way to a charger (assuming that's where a charging station is located).

 

[dpeilow]

Graphene-Silicon Anodes for Li-ion Batteries Go Commercial - IEEE Spectrum

 

[Robert.Boston]

Graphene-Silicon Anodes for Li-ion Batteries Go Commercial - IEEE Spectrum

A "GEN3" battery made in California -- where else have I heard about a revolutionary "GEN3" product made in California? Perhaps one will use the other.

 

[JRP3]

“Incredibly, some energy storage systems providers and independent power producers today are using hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of small cylindrical cell batteries in massive utility-scale storage systems. This approach is simply too costly and not viable. Large storage must be built from large batteries, not small batteries originally designed for powered hand tools. Our VLF battery has a clear performance and cost advantage in providing the massive currents needed with the minimum materials and battery management components, resulting in a more affordable lithium-ion battery for wide-scale use.”

Exactly what I've been suggesting all along. It looks as if they are going to improve a large format CALB LiFePO4 prismatic, the same cells I have in my car. A better, cheaper, drop in replacement would be awesome.

 

[Alfred]

Also Elon Musk suggested a couple of years ago that he would prefer a simpler battery, but so far no one has succeeded to match Tesla's current approach. One of the reasons is cooling. A larger number of cells can present a larger surface to a cooling/heating medium. This has turned out to be more important than many thought. Another is the large investment in innovation and improvements that the current mass production of small cells was able to attract. So some manufacturers plan currently to offer larger cells first rather for utility markets for peak shaving and equalization of intermittent generation by wind and solar - also those cells quoted above, note the reference to utility scale:
"Incredibly, some energy storage systems providers and independent power producers today are using hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of small cylindrical cell batteries in massive utility-scale storage systems. This approach is simply too costly and not viable...."
Some interesting snippets in this direction can be also gleaned from Leclanché's annual report (in German).
This leaves me with the impression that Tesla might have to hang on to smaller cells for the immediate future.

 

[dpeilow]

We used to have a troll on here that claimed Tesla's small cell approach would leave them high and dry once the rest of the industry got up to speed on larger format packs. I'm still waiting...

 

[JRP3]

Tesla's approach gives them the best specific energy density and the lowest cost, but the LiCo chemistry is also more heat sensitive, has shorter cycle life, and lower C rates. There are always trade offs. The LiFePO4 chemistry needs less temperature management, has longer cycle life, some, like A123, can have extremely high C rates, so if the energy density can be improved it's probably going to be a better chemistry. And you won't have to deal with thousands of cells. Tesla can always adapt if it makes sense to do so.