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It's the Batteries, Stupid!

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I think the Panasonic agreement was for 80,000 cars worth of batteries. If their contract allows it, Tesla could look to Envia for some of their Model S battery packs allowing them to either decrease the cost or increase margins until the Panasonic agreement runs out.
 
ARPA-E grants allow the awardee to retain commercial development rights to the IP. The DOE has rights for government usage, only. (My group has an ARPA-E grant, so I'm speaking from experience.)
Atul of Envia says they will work with multiple OEMs.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2012/02/envia-20120227/comments/page/2/#comments

Q. GM has a significant inventsment in your company. They have a person on your board. What is your contractual obligation to them ? Do you have to sell to them exclusively or can you sell to say Nissan or Tesla, if they want to work with you ?

A. GM has some limited rights - they supported us in a Series C in December 2010. As our website says, we have Jon Lauckner as our Board observer. But GM demonstrates the highest integrity in a Board Meeting - they will recuse themselves whenever there is competitive program information. Yes - we can develop and do business with other automotive OEMs. Hopefully along the next few quarters, we can slowly start announcing these. We have been and will remain gun-shy on press outreach so we do not dilute our message.
 
I was a bit concerned to see he doesn't seem to understand that fast charging will require high C rates at the cell level, not advancements in charging equipment.
Rapid charge technologies will become more prevalent and then it will again increase from 200-300 miles.
All USABC specs for BEV are @ C/3 rate. Faster charge and discharge is possible - but for a 200 mile BEV a 5C rate is unnecessary.
 
I was a bit concerned to see he doesn't seem to understand that fast charging will require high C rates at the cell level, not advancements in charging equipment.
He isn't as technical as I thought he would be. He deferred to his CTO on some questions. But mostly looks like he was thinking about discharge rates (because people asked about power density) rather than charge rates.

Charging an entire 300 mile pack today will likely take 6-10 hours. But from what I understand, rapid charging technologies are quickly evolving. Our bet is that a car should have a pack where you come home in the evening and put it to charge and it's fully charged by morning. However, one should be able to charge a "significant" portion of the pack rapidly - say in 10-30 minutes. So for a 300-mile car, if we can charge 30% in 10 minutes and 60% in 20 minutes, we think it's a sustainable model for a commute car. Again, this question is above my pay-grade, my CTO should give you a better response.
 
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Does anyone know if someone has though of replacing the cells in the Roadster ESS sheets?
Of course, I'm not going to weld 6831 batteries together manually :)
I just wondered if it's possible to dismantle a sheet and replace the cells without damaging everything (and getting leaks etc.)

If it's feasible and Tesla still sells packs for $40000 2-3y from now - while the cell might come down to $1-$2 - someone might be interested in selling an "ESS cell refresh" service :)
 
Does anyone know if someone has though of replacing the cells in the Roadster ESS sheets?
Of course, I'm not going to weld 6831 batteries together manually :)
I just wondered if it's possible to dismantle a sheet and replace the cells without damaging everything (and getting leaks etc.)

If it's feasible and Tesla still sells packs for $40000 2-3y from now - while the cell might come down to $1-$2 - someone might be interested in selling an "ESS cell refresh" service :)

I guess the problem would be getting the liquid cooled aspect of the battery packs working properly. Tesla is probably keeping those secrets close at hand.
 
You can balance cells manually, I did on my car, of course it's a lot easier with 36 large format cells instead of many 18650's, but still possible. You just have to make sure they are all at the same voltage under the same current, add or subtract charge as needed. All the small cells in parallel will self balance and then you can treat each parallel set as a single larger cell and match that to the pack.
 
New 400 Wh/kg tech not limited to Envia. First wave expected in the 2014 or 2015 timeframe.

Green Car Congress: Envia Systems announcement may herald the first wave of DOE-supported commercial high energy density Li-ion cells with Si-C anodes
While Envia Systems is the first integrated cell producer to announce success with that type of combination, other providers of Si-C materials or IP—such as, but not limited to, Nanosys and the DOE’s own Argonne National Laboratory, respectively—are also currently deep in the process of development and/or commercialization. (Other silicon anode projects supported by the DOE includes those being done by Amprius, Angstrom Materials and NC State University. In addition, DOE is sponsoring a number of fundamental research projects focused on silicon anode development.) Consequently, the market may be poised for the entrance of a first wave of higher-energy density—and lower-cost—automotive Si-C cells in the 2014 or 2015 timeframe.
 

The Si-C anode mentioned by that article is only one part of why the Envia cells get 400Wh/kg. Note that the 4000mah cell planned by Panasonic also uses Si-C anodes, so there is probably no way for Envia to claim that for themselves (because of prior art).

For Envia, there's also the high voltage electrolyte and the "manganese-rich" cathode. I think the more important IP for Envia is the cathode. There are plenty of different types of high voltage electrolytes, so I don't think it is that likely Envia can claim that either.
 
I have the feeling that "early" EV adopters (using that term loosely, since 2012 isn't exactly early relative to the EV1, Roadster, etc.) are always going to be looking in our rear-view mirrors and seeing "the next great battery tech" coming along. It reminds me of the first decade of the PC, when by the time you'd gotten your new PC delivered, Intel had already announced the next gen CPU. Bill Machrone, then-editor of PC Magazine, coined "Machrone's Law:" the PC you want always costs $5,000. That rule held has held for a long time; even today, you can buy high-end gaming PCs for -- $5,000!

Just like the 80286 CPU in the IBM AT, the batteries the Tesla uses in the Model S will become "last year's tech" pretty quickly -- but, I believe, battery tech improvements won't be quite as breathtaking as the power/price path of integrated circuits. The big difference is that the applications aren't evolving, too: one of my favorite aphorisms is "Intel giveth, Microsoft taketh away." A lot of very productive work was accomplished on those early PCs, but as the OS and apps bloated, users needed ever-faster CPUs and ever-more RAM to remain productive.

With EVs, however, if an EV and its battery are good enough for you today, they will remain good enough for you next year (with due allowance for battery degradation). Roads are not going to get hillier over time, nor drag more severe.

Does the potential availability of better batteries in 2014 change my interest in buying a Model S in 2012? Of course, to a degree. But I learned with buying PCs throughout the 80s, 90s, and 00s that you can't wait forever for tech to mature -- at some point, you have to decide, NOW -- what's available is good enough, at a price I'm willing to pay. For me, Model S has hit that point -- it actually hit it 2 years ago, and I've been waiting impatiently ever since!
 
My PC buying history always depended on the ability to upgrade, I'd get a mother board with head room and simply add a better processor, video card, and memory as they improved and became cheaper. As you say the "driving application" does not actually change so your current EV that meets your needs today will likely easily do so 5-10 years from now, and when it doesn't you can upgrade the platform and make it better than new, if you aren't ready for a completely new vehicle anyway. In that case it will go to someone else who can use it as is or upgrade it.