I have the feeling that "early" EV adopters (using that term loosely, since 2012 isn't exactly early relative to the EV1, Roadster, etc.) are always going to be looking in our rear-view mirrors and seeing "the next great battery tech" coming along. It reminds me of the first decade of the PC, when by the time you'd gotten your new PC delivered, Intel had already announced the next gen CPU. Bill Machrone, then-editor of
PC Magazine, coined "Machrone's Law:" the PC you want always costs $5,000. That rule held has held for a long time; even today, you can buy
high-end gaming PCs for -- $5,000!
Just like the 80286 CPU in the IBM AT, the batteries the Tesla uses in the Model S will become "last year's tech" pretty quickly -- but, I believe, battery tech improvements won't be quite as breathtaking as the power/price path of integrated circuits. The big difference is that the
applications aren't evolving, too: one of my favorite aphorisms is "Intel giveth, Microsoft taketh away." A lot of very productive work was accomplished on those early PCs, but as the OS and apps bloated, users needed ever-faster CPUs and ever-more RAM to remain productive.
With EVs, however, if an EV and its battery are good enough for you today, they will remain good enough for you next year (with due allowance for battery degradation). Roads are not going to get hillier over time, nor drag more severe.
Does the potential availability of better batteries in 2014 change my interest in buying a Model S in 2012? Of course, to a degree. But I learned with buying PCs throughout the 80s, 90s, and 00s that you can't wait forever for tech to mature -- at some point, you have to decide, NOW -- what's available is good enough, at a price I'm willing to pay. For me, Model S has hit that point -- it actually hit it 2 years ago, and I've been waiting impatiently ever since!