I've loved Tesla for 7 years. But after years of abuse, I'm out

[Ostrichsak]

He might be - fresh Teslas hold their value very well.
Outside of big improvement and price decreases, resale is still very good. Now - certainly not so on performance models that are loaded....
But a 2019 that is the same car as newly available - yeah resale is excellent. Huge price reductions (and feature improvements) certainly hit some Teslas very hard.

I always feel the need to counter some of this horrible reliability talk. Our garage -
2015 70D - 85 k miles. 4 service trips over 5.5 years. $1000 in out of warranty repair.
March 2019 Model 3 - 15k miles. Has never seen SC.

I know multiple Tesla owners - none have had significant issues. 2 have 80-100k miles on late 2015s that I just talked with. One got a MCU2 upgrade 2 weeks ago after failure - right before the $500 card became available. Neither have had any other issues. Not excusing the MCU problem but the $500 fix is pretty darn reasonable. Wish it was $550 and a better chip but we don't really know how that chip is.

What?! ROFL Says the guy who owns two non-Performance cars. Of course.

 

[BlindPass]

What?! ROFL Says the guy who owns two non-Performance cars. Of course.

If most people hold their cars for 6* years, how much value will these early gen EVs have in 6 years, as more and more capital is spent on manufacturers treating cars as tech? Imo looking at 2014 Model S is a poor example, given the lack of substitutes on the used market.

I don’t anticipate our M3 or S to hold value any better than our ICE, as production costs come down and the technology advances.


(*I think that is in Tesla’s calculation of EV cost savings)

 

[Ostrichsak]

If most people hold their cars for 6* years, how much value will these early gen EVs have in 6 years, as more and more capital is spent on manufacturers treating cars as tech? Imo looking at 2014 Model S is a poor example, given the lack of substitutes on the used market.

I don’t anticipate our M3 or S to hold value any better than our ICE, as production costs come down and the technology advances.


(*I think that is in Tesla’s calculation of EV cost savings)

Okay, first of all, nobody keeps cars for six years these days. That said, this really has no bearing on your point. Your point was that the Performance cars didn't hold their value as well as their cheaper and slower counterparts. Curious what historical data you can reference that supports this. Nothing you said in this most recent post says anything about your claim that:

"resale is still very good. Now - certainly not so on performance models that are loaded...."

Which says, in no uncertain terms, that the loaded performance versions of the cars don't hold their resale value as well as stripped and non-performance versions of the exact same car. I mean, you're basically saying "Buy a non-turbo Toyota Supra because they will hold their value WAY better than that loaded up twin turbo Supra" or "Don't buy a loaded V8 Camaro because they will be worse less than a 6-cylinder Camaro with crank windows and AM radio" and neither of these couldn't be further from the truth.

Historically, the premium version of the vehicles are the ones that hobbyist seek and create a cult following that drives values up, not down. There also tends to be fewer of the flagship examples which also skews the supply v demand dynamic as time goes on.

 

[XLR82XS]

Okay, first of all, nobody keeps cars for six years these days.

I do - as well as many others.

 

[cucubits]

Historically, the premium version of the vehicles are the ones that hobbyist seek and create a cult following that drives values up

Correct, but I think his point was that a "regular" Tesla or any car for that matter, will be easier to sell because there will be more buyers looking for a good deal on a regular car vs a specific loaded configuration. Options do not hold their value for any used car out there. Yes, there will always be a small group looking specifically to buy the most loaded Supra and willing to pay a premium, but that group will be small, I don't think it can count in the statistics.

I think it's the same with Tesla. I see from time to time ads of 2013-2014 "unicorns" (I hate that word so much) for which the sellers ask more than a 2016 facelift for example. This doesn't make much sense either way you look at it, but sometimes, rarely, they find the one buyer...

 

[BlindPass]

Correct, but I think his point was that a "regular" Tesla or any car for that matter, will be easier to sell because there will be more buyers looking for a good deal on a regular car vs a specific loaded configuration. Options do not hold their value for any used car out there. Yes, there will always be a small group looking specifically to buy the most loaded Supra and willing to pay a premium, but that group will be small, I don't think it can count in the statistics.

I think it's the same with Tesla. I see from time to time ads of 2013-2014 "unicorns" (I hate that word so much) for which the sellers ask more than a 2016 facelift for example. This doesn't make much sense either way you look at it, but sometimes, rarely, they find the one buyer...

I agree that premium options, which often have inflated margins as manufacturers exploit those not governed by value, aren’t likely to hold value well on nascent tech. Paying extra for performance increases depreciation loss when the cheaper base trim has better performance in 5-10 years.

 

[Ostrichsak]

I do - as well as many others.

Oh boy, you're one of "those" people, aren't you? Take every single word literal just trying to find a reason to argue even though what you said has no bearing at all on the crazy statement you made that I challenged.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Correct, but I think his point was that a "regular" Tesla or any car for that matter, will be easier to sell because there will be more buyers looking for a good deal on a regular car vs a specific loaded configuration. Options do not hold their value for any used car out there. Yes, there will always be a small group looking specifically to buy the most loaded Supra and willing to pay a premium, but that group will be small, I don't think it can count in the statistics.

I think it's the same with Tesla. I see from time to time ads of 2013-2014 "unicorns" (I hate that word so much) for which the sellers ask more than a 2016 facelift for example. This doesn't make much sense either way you look at it, but sometimes, rarely, they find the one buyer...

You just made my point. Cars that are more rare, higher trim and have more options are sought after by more people and thus command a higher price. This delta only grows more and more as cars age and has been this way since the dawn of time save for a very few (read: 0.0001%) random outliers to the rule.

 

[BlindPass]

Oh boy, you're one of "those" people, aren't you? Take every single word literal just trying to find a reason to argue even though what you said has no bearing at all on the crazy statement you made that I challenged.

Years of ownership is central to the conversation and had yet to be established.

This seems like projection, given you passed on an anecdotally based claim as though it were fact. You should expect a similar response.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Years of ownership is central to the conversation and had yet to be established.

This seems like projection, given you passed on an anecdotally based claim as though it were fact. You should expect a similar response.

Excellent use of misdirection. I'm sure everyone forgot about the bogus claim you initially made about Performance versions of these cars somehow having less appeal in terms of resale value than their non-Performance counterparts.

 

[BlindPass]

Excellent use of misdirection. I'm sure everyone forgot about the bogus claim you initially made about Performance versions of these cars somehow having less appeal in terms of resale value than their non-Performance counterparts.

Care to link to this claim?
Why is it that you are so big on accusing of bogus claims, but continue to do so yourself? Projection isn’t productive in this discussion.


As I said, I don’t anticipate the S or M3 to have better resale value than my ICE.

We’re not talking future value as collector cars, but rather trade-in value in order to purchase the next vehicle. The S we bought in 2013 is now easily bettered by entry level M3s. I suspect this continues to some degree as the production costs lower and technology advances. A purchase price inflated from value inherent to having leading performance may depreciate more once it no longer has that title, even if it’s still more desirable than the base model of the same vintage.

 

[demundus]

I have had my first and only tesla for almost 6 years now. So I'll call generic statement bullshit on you there (yes im taking it literally, thats how you wrote it and we're on an internet forum... not putting a ton of brainpower into your intent)

But yes, that aside, the guy who thinks his 1.5 year old tesla is still worth 90k needs a reality check. or maybe we all need to be as blissfully ignorant as him

 

[Big Toys]

Okay, first of all, nobody keeps cars for six years these days.

At 6 years, my cars are just breaking in. My buddy goes thru cars every 6-8 months. I think it's a matter of attention span.

 

[kavyboy]

My inner Cliff Clavin nneds to point out that the "average" age for cars in the US this year is 11.9 years.
(I won't post a cite since you can google it if you're interested, and the word "average" is in quotes because the news outlets mix average and median, so who knows what it really is and I can't be bothered to chase the original report.)

 

[AMPd]

My inner Cliff Clavin nneds to point out that the "average" age for cars in the US this year is 11.9 years.
(I won't post a cite since you can google it if you're interested, and the word "average" is in quotes because the news outlets mix average and median, so who knows what it really is and I can't be bothered to chase the original report.)

Technically thats irrelevant to this conversation because that’s the average age of vehicles, not the average time owners keep their vehicles. At 11 years that car could have had 2+ owners and most likely did.
I go through vehicles quickly, 2-3 years and I’m bored of it. Except for the 08 BMW M5, it’s a rare car that I’ll be keeping for a hwile.

 

[kavyboy]

Technically thats irrelevant to this conversation because that’s the average age of vehicles, not the average time owners keep their vehicles. At 11 years that car could have had 2+ owners and most likely did.
I go through vehicles quickly, 2-3 years and I’m bored of it. Except for the 08 BMW M5, it’s a rare car that I’ll be keeping for a hwile.

When is Cliffy ever saying anything relevant?

 

[whitex]

Your point was that the Performance cars didn't hold their value as well as their cheaper and slower counterparts. Curious what historical data you can reference that supports this.

One example (I picked cars on similar VIN range):
2016 S75D base-ish: new $75K, today $42K - 44% depreciation
2016 P90DL loaded: new ~$150K, today $54K - 64% depreciation

I used to swap new cars every 2 years starting when I was 16, base versions always depreciated the least (both % and total amount). Options outside of actual trim (like SE, EX, LE, whatever) such as premium radio, custom decor, etc, depreciate to pretty much 0% after 4 years.

 

[mattdamon1356]

There seems to be very much a price floor to get into any Tesla that doesn't decrease very much very fast. At some point when the price gets low enough people will probably just buy old Tesla's to take the batteries right out and never use the car. It is my experience in looking for a model 3 so far that the standard range plus absolutely takes less of a depreciation hit then the performance model 3.

I noticed that ostrichsak guy seems to have a habit of being really offended at any suggestion that a Tesla might not be worth as much as he thinks they are. I think there are a lot of reasons why performance Teslas will not follow a similar value path of other ICE performance cars of the past. I think apart from very specific rare colors, combinations, or signature editions of Teslas you are making a big mistake if you think you're going to buy the car and sit on it and have it be worth a lot more later.

Things could change in this regard as the EV industry matures and different models are more about preference versus a clear Improvement on older cars in almost every way.

 

[BlindPass]

There seems to be very much a price floor to get into any Tesla that doesn't decrease very much very fast. At some point when the price gets low enough people will probably just buy old Tesla's to take the batteries right out and never use the car. It is my experience in looking for a model 3 so far that the standard range plus absolutely takes less of a depreciation hit then the performance model 3.

I noticed that ostrichsak guy seems to have a habit of being really offended at any suggestion that a Tesla might not be worth as much as he thinks they are. I think there are a lot of reasons why performance Teslas will not follow a similar value path of other ICE performance cars of the past. I think apart from very specific rare colors, combinations, or signature editions of Teslas you are making a big mistake if you think you're going to buy the car and sit on it and have it be worth a lot more later.

Things could change in this regard as the EV industry matures and different models are more about preference versus a clear Improvement on older cars in almost every way.

That’s a good point- unlike ICE batteries are more of commodity. If they improve degradation and release million mile batteries with V2G, there will be a price floor that’s higher than most

 

[jelloslug]

Okay, first of all, nobody keeps cars for six years these days. That said, this really has no bearing on your point. Your point was that the Performance cars didn't hold their value as well as their cheaper and slower counterparts. Curious what historical data you can reference that supports this. Nothing you said in this most recent post says anything about your claim that:

"resale is still very good. Now - certainly not so on performance models that are loaded...."

Which says, in no uncertain terms, that the loaded performance versions of the cars don't hold their resale value as well as stripped and non-performance versions of the exact same car. I mean, you're basically saying "Buy a non-turbo Toyota Supra because they will hold their value WAY better than that loaded up twin turbo Supra" or "Don't buy a loaded V8 Camaro because they will be worse less than a 6-cylinder Camaro with crank windows and AM radio" and neither of these couldn't be further from the truth.

Historically, the premium version of the vehicles are the ones that hobbyist seek and create a cult following that drives values up, not down. There also tends to be fewer of the flagship examples which also skews the supply v demand dynamic as time goes on.

The average car in the US 11.9 years old. Somebody is keeping them.