Jet another "should I buy now or wait?" thread...

[arubinst]

I have a Model 3 reservation. About 3 or 4 months ago, Tesla started proposing leasing rates of 0.25% here in Switzerland. I said to my self that I would wait until the M3 final reveal (almost a month ago already) to decide if I would rather buy an S75D.

While waiting, several things happened. As you know, prices went down, options were combined and it seems like they made some adjustments to the US$/Swiss Franc exchange rate. Prices must have been so low that they decided to bump the leasing rates up to 0.75% and this scared me a bit. However, prices are now at an all-time low.

What I have read here and some other places is that there's no good time to buy a Tesla. But people seem to agree that closer to quarterly reports, things "happen" in the Tesla universe. There's also this now popular believe that an updated interior should show up any time soon. Or that prices for the 100D should go down. Of course, I understand nobody knows for sure any of those things

So my whole dilema is:

• I believe the next report should be in November, right? So many things might happen in 3 months
  
• Things "happening" in the Tesla universe are not always good. Options disappear, even whole models disappear!
• The US$/Swiss franc rates could always change back and prices could go up again for the Swiss market
• The 0.75% leasing rate could go up again. I think it used to be around 4%
• The European S75D seems to be receiving an 85 kWh battery. This might mean that the 75 is about to disappear and an 85 will be re-introduced. This might give me the option to buy a 75 now and probably pay for un unlock when/if I need it

So knowing all these facts, what do you guys think I should do?

And another question (which I also understand nobody knows the answer to for sure...): do you think it is reasonable to think that I will also get the 85 kWh battery as it has been the case lately for other European 75s?

Thanks in advance for sharing your wisdom and experience and sorry for the long post!

 

[kort677]

 

[kbM3]

I have a Model 3 reservation. About 3 or 4 months ago, Tesla started proposing leasing rates of 0.25% here in Switzerland. I said to my self that I would wait until the M3 final reveal (almost a month ago already) to decide if I would rather buy an S75D.

While waiting, several things happened. As you know, prices went down, options were combined and it seems like they made some adjustments to the US$/Swiss Franc exchange rate. Prices must have been so low that they decided to bump the leasing rates up to 0.75% and this scared me a bit. However, prices are now at an all-time low.

What I have read here and some other places is that there's no good time to buy a Tesla. But people seem to agree that closer to quarterly reports, things "happen" in the Tesla universe. There's also this now popular believe that an updated interior should show up any time soon. Or that prices for the 100D should go down. Of course, I understand nobody knows for sure any of those things

So my whole dilema is:

• I believe the next report should be in November, right? So many things might happen in 3 months
  
• Things "happening" in the Tesla universe are not always good. Options disappear, even whole models disappear!
• The US$/Swiss franc rates could always change back and prices could go up again for the Swiss market
• The 0.75% leasing rate could go up again. I think it used to be around 4%
• The European S75D seems to be receiving an 85 kWh battery. This might mean that the 75 is about to disappear and an 85 will be re-introduced. This might give me the option to buy a 75 now and probably pay for un unlock when/if I need it

So knowing all these facts, what do you guys think I should do?

And another question (which I also understand nobody knows the answer to for sure...): do you think it is reasonable to think that I will also get the 85 kWh battery as it has been the case lately for other European 75s?

Thanks in advance for sharing your wisdom and experience and sorry for the long post!

I think I would wait until after the Semi event. I'm guessing the special surprise is a Model S interior refresh. I think any changes made will only add value. However your points about super low rates are very valid. Tough choice.

 

[arubinst]

I think I would wait until after the Semi event. I'm guessing the special surprise is a Model S interior refresh. I think any changes made will only add value. However your points about super low rates are very valid. Tough choice.

Thanks! I hadn't thought about that! The event is supposed to happen in September but there has been no official announcement, right?

 

[Tiger]

If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen would be it. The long term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists.

 

[arubinst]

If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen would be it. The long term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists.

Thank you. Great advice! I'll make sure I do that when driving the new car (and everything else from the youtube video )

 

[Troy]

The following things might change for the Model S in the next few months:

• Motors: The Model 3 uses permanent magnet motors which are 2% more efficient than AC induction motors. The Model S should switch to the same motor once they use up the existing inventory.
• Interior: The Model 3 interior has a few features the Model S doesn't have yet like more storage space in the center console, two smartphone docks in the center console, door pockets, coat hooks.

Also, Tesla might drop the Model S prices. The way to do that without affecting the gross margins would be to discontinue the Model S 75 first and then drop prices of remaining models. Otherwise, the gross margin of the Model S 75 would be too low because it already has the lowest gross margin among the existing Model S trim levels. The average is currently at 27.9% That means the 100 kWh versions are above 30% and the 75 below 25%. Luckily you don't want the Model S 75 anyway, so it's not a problem if it's gone. By the way, Tesla confirmed they will discontinue the S75. See details here.

Also, it is a good idea to wait until Model 3 80D specs are released. Dual motors improve range and performance. Why not wait and see the specs before you make a decision between the Model S 75D and Model 3 80D. In the meantime, check out my comparison here.

 

[arubinst]

Thank you! This is helpful. I had not seen the Electrek article about discontinuing the 75 and thought it was simply a rumor.

Those are interesting points. I had considered an interior redesign but certainly not the motors.

Your comparison is very interesting! Although waiting for the Model 3 here in Switzerland would be kind of a long wait. My current estimated delivery date is "end of 2018", so I am not actually counting on receiving a Model 3 here before 2019.

I just wish there was some kind of timeframe for the wait. Weeks? Months? And of course, there's the other factors I mentioned about leasing interest and money exchange rates that could make my purchase much more expensive .

 

[Aieukl378]

I would rephrase "there's no good time to buy a Tesla." to "It's always a good time to buy a Tesla". I bought mine over a year ago(instead of waiting for the Model 3 I had reserved) and over the last year of ownership the only thing I missed was:

• buying 300+ gallons of gas
• Emitting 7+ metric tons of Co2, carbon monoxide, methane etc.
• Contributing $2000 USD to the fossil fuel industry

Also, I've had fully functional AP1 from day one and have been able to use it for multiple 1000+ mi road trips(whereas AP2 is just starting to reach AP1 parity).

But your right, there are always reasons to wait...I'm just glad I didn't!

 

[T3sla UK]

For what it's worth here is my opinion and sorry for my long response. I placed my order back in May and by the time it delivered I had the following upgrades:

All glass roof
New back seat
New headrest on seats
Improved -60 times
Power rear liftgate
I have the new BTX8 85Kwh battery, for what it's worth, which right now isn't a lot. Expect that i do think I'm getting faster charges at superchargers if I use them. Based on my last car (S60) I wouldn't pay for the upgrade as it's still just out of my price range and I'm in a lease car and I'll never "get that value back" when i hand it over.

However to answer your question, should you pull the trigger? Yes, 100%. If you place your order now and put a September / October delivery request time you'll get whatever the next wave of upgrades are, which in my opinion will be in September at end of quarter.

You do need to make sure you are happy with whatever car you order at what ever time you order it as there will always be something new you'll miss out on. In my case I missed out on the premium lighting and air suspension which at the time I was gutted about, I even priced out the idea of cancelling the car (and losing my deposit) and re-ordering. I then realised my fallacy as those option were available at the time I ordered them and I didn't pay for them, why, because they weren't important to me. Therefore why cancel a car lose the deposit and start the wait again. Again in my opinion keeping the car was the best decision I've made, as every one will tell you the car is amazing at I'd rather be in it that not!

Do I think you'll get the 85kwh too, yes almost positive and if not what is the worst case? You get the car you've ordered and probably a few bits more with the natural progress they make.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla has a long standing policy of continous improvement.
This means, that no matter how long you wait, something even better will be just around the corner.
These enhancements have no rhyme or reason, as Tesla simply released them when they are available.

When I ordered my X there were several improvements (new suite of autopilot sensors and computer, 70 battery upgraded to 75, air suspension mandatory, and a fold flat floor).

Since taking delivery the performance has been enhanced, an even newer sensor/camera suite released.

Offsetting this, I have also rec'd 5 software upgrades after purchase which continue to make a great car even greater.

I believe this is what you might expect, no matter when you order your car.

 

[T3sla UK]

Offsetting this, I have also rec'd 5 software upgrades after purchase which continue to make a great car even greater.

Great point, I've just received a software update today with Auto beam headlights!. I know we could talk about the AP2 vs AP1 etc but which other cars get better over time. Pull the trigger and join the family

 

[RogerHScott]

What I have read here and some other places is that there's no good time to buy a Tesla

That certainly wouldn't be the dominant sentiment you'd read here. On the contrary, the dominant sentiment here would be that there's no bad time to buy a Tesla, other than perhaps "later" rather than "sooner".

 

[KManS]

Maybe I missed it but how much were they offering you a new S75D for? $59k?