JFF Poll - Model 3 Lease End Purchase

[cbaaz]

This is just for fun and discussion.

FYI - I leased my Models 3 and have leased my business cars for decades. I don't think I really care how it plays out since I have never purchased a car at the end of lease but it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

And I voted "Yes"

 

[kchau]

I would be annoyed if they did. I would have preferred to lease and buy out for tax reasons, but I went with a loan since I knew I wanted to keep the car.

 

[cbaaz]

I would be annoyed if they did. I would have preferred to lease and buy out for tax reasons, but I went with a loan since I knew I wanted to keep the car.

I don't see how they will have a viable "robo taxi" platform in just 3 years. I have no idea how many are being leased, but even we we look at somewhat conservative round numbers as a SWAG:

5000/week. 2% leased = 100. 100 x 52 = 5200/year.
Average sales price $45,000.
Residual value 60% = average residual value $27,000
5200 * $27,000 = $140.4 Million dollar per year "robo taxi" fleet building.

I just don't see it. Robo taxis in the future - sure. In 3 years - I don't think so.

 

[kchau]

Did Elon say that they would be putting them into a robotaxi fleet immediately after the lease is over? Or just that they will be used for a robo taxi fleet. There's nothing really stopping them from just storing them until the robotaxi technology is ready.

 

[cbaaz]

True, but it would not be a great financial move to be owning & parking cars that "may" be used in the future.

 

[Knightshade]

Did Elon say that they would be putting them into a robotaxi fleet immediately after the lease is over? Or just that they will be used for a robo taxi fleet. There's nothing really stopping them from just storing them until the robotaxi technology is ready.

Parking them makes little sense.

On the other hand it might make sense for them to:

A) Use some as loaners since they'll keep expanding # of service centers
and
B) Add FSD and sell em at a higher price than they'd otherwise go for since it costs Tesla $0 marginally to add FSD.

Bonus to B- AWD trade ins could also be flashed to P3D- cars for a couple grand more value on selling em used.

Added bonus- if they keep RWD LRs off the market going forward any of those coming back from lease might also be popular for resale.

 

[empowah]

They’d rather take them back and resell as CPO with warranty and all options unlocked. Tesla wants to keep a tight grip on the secondary market as well.

Selling the car to you at the residual value is a lost opportunity for additional revenue.

 

[cbaaz]

Great points - the resale with adding software upgrades for performance and/or “FSD” make a lot more sense than robo taxis, for sure. Maybe they will even move back to a real CPO program again

 

[ewoodrick]

If you leased from Tesla, I don't think that you will be buying it out .

 

[OCR1]

Three years is a long time from now in Tesla’s world. Lots of things could change between now and then.