KPMG study: only Tesla and five other carmakers will survive

[Johann Koeber]

In a study that was quoted quite a bit on German TV and other media, Tesla was named as one of six car manufacturers that will survive.

I like seeing Tesla knighted.

 

[RobStark]

KPMG study pg 56

"the results of the survey suggest that leadership in innovation is possibly the most critical factor for survival – more so than mere size. only six of the 32 major companies in our tables are expected to remain independent, with the remainder more likely to merge with other OEMs or form stronger alliances in order to survive. these six players are all renowned for their innovative products and features.

When it comes to individual companies, BMW, VW, Tesla, Hyundai/Kia, Toyota and Tata are seen as having the best chance to retain independence. BMW is in clear first place, and along with tesla is ranked high on the scale of product and technology innovators. Mazda, Fiat, Isuzu and Fuji Heavy/ Subaru, on the other hand, are viewed as candidates for mergers with other OEMs. Many of the Chinese manufacturers are expected to strengthen their alliances in order to survive, which should lead to further market consolidation."

http://www.kpmg.com/bm/en/issuesand...pmg'sglobalautomotiveexecutivesurvey2014.aspx

Two German champs not including Daimler Benz, one American champion with no Detroit company, one South Korean one Japanese and one Indian champion. Hmmmm.

 

[uselesslogin]

This to me is one of the more interesting quotes.

"Looking forward to 2029, the majority of respondents expect e-vehicles to be playing a significant role in sales mix, without coming close to knocking ICE powertrains off the top spot. Approximately 40 percent of respondents from the US, Western Europe and China anticipate e-vehicles to make up 11-15 percent of new registrations, which is consistent with the previous year’s findings"

I think that is a remarkably low percentage and it will at least be the majority of new cars.

 

[tander]

This goes to show that over 2012-13 Tesla didn't just get really good car on the market, they transitioned from being an iffy start-up to being a growth company with as firm a footing in the market as any other company.

 

[RobStark]

This to me is one of the more interesting quotes.

"Looking forward to 2029, the majority of respondents expect e-vehicles to be playing a significant role in sales mix, without coming close to knocking ICE powertrains off the top spot. Approximately 40 percent of respondents from the US, Western Europe and China anticipate e-vehicles to make up 11-15 percent of new registrations, which is consistent with the previous year’s findings"

I think that is a remarkably low percentage and it will at least be the majority of new cars.

According to the US Governments Energy Information Administration by 2030 less than 1% of new cars will be BEV and 5-7% will by hybrids.

Interesting that common people even with low amount of information are ahead of the bureaucrats and government number crunchers.

I think most people that are very knowledgeable on the subject think it is going to be far higher than 15%.

 

[EV2BFREE]

This to me is one of the more interesting quotes.

"Looking forward to 2029, the majority of respondents expect e-vehicles to be playing a significant role in sales mix, without coming close to knocking ICE powertrains off the top spot. Approximately 40 percent of respondents from the US, Western Europe and China anticipate e-vehicles to make up 11-15 percent of new registrations, which is consistent with the previous year’s findings"

I think that is a remarkably low percentage and it will at least be the majority of new cars.

Elon Musk and others have stated that the consumer doesn't always know what they want. Mr. Musk tells a story about asking people in 1970 what would be happening in the 2000s. They would say space travel and would not believe that we would be holding smartphones that are capable of obtaining all of the knowledge that exists anywhere in the world in the palms of our hands just through an internet connection. He also mentions that the concept of "the internet" would also have to be explained to them. People may not currently know that EVs are the superior mode of transportation on many levels.

 

[sleepyhead]

According to the US Governments Energy Information Administration by 2030 less than 1% of new cars will be BEV and 5-7% will by hybrids.

Interesting that common people even with low amount of information are ahead of the bureaucrats and government number crunchers.

I think most people that are very knowledgeable on the subject think it is going to be far higher than 15%.

Elon thinks 50% of new cars will be EV's in 13-14 years.

 

[hobbes]

[...]

Interesting that common people even with low amount of information are ahead of the bureaucrats and government number crunchers.

I think most people that are very knowledgeable on the subject think it is going to be far higher than 15%.

I would also have expected that they polled the general public, but look at pg 58:

Two hundred automotive executives
participated in the survey, over half
of whom are business unit heads or
higher.

I think the fact that most (if not all) of the participants come from competing companies makes the good result for Tesla even more significant.

 

[Todd Burch]

Elon thinks 50% of new cars will be EV's in 13-14 years.

That sounds about right to me.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I would also have expected that they polled the general public, but look at pg 58:



I think the fact that most (if not all) of the participants come from competing companies makes the good result for Tesla even more significant.

Nice. Reminds me of how significant I found Tesla winning Motor Trend Car of the Year when I heard that the panel of 11 judges was made up of both automotive journalists and industry veterans from competing companies. And yet they all voted unanimously for the Model S.

 

[RobStark]

I would also have expected that they polled the general public, but look at pg 58:



I think the fact that most (if not all) of the participants come from competing companies makes the good result for Tesla even more significant.

Good catch, that makes it an even better result for EVs.

- - - Updated - - -

Elon thinks 50% of new cars will be EV's in 13-14 years.

I have heard him say that several times.

I wonder if the supply chain for batteries can move that fast?

Or if that is Elon just verbally pushing auto executives to rethink their future product plans vis-à-vis electric vehicles.

 

[Convert2013]

I am going to make a prediction that Tesla will remain the King of electric cars for many many years, ahead of BMW or anyone else, simply because they are located in Silicon Valley and the cars are so heavy in h-tech content. Nobody else in the world has the prowess.

 

[FluxCap]

This report validates what many of us already believe is the reality of global vehicles in the next decade -- straight from ICE industry CEO's. That is no small thing. Wow.

 

[lolachampcar]

Some very aggressive people/companies have begun to see the writing on the wall when it comes to cars. I expect to see the battery issue backfilled faster than any of us suspect as it is the ICE of the future and the future is coming like a freight train. There is no reason a majority of ICE can not be moved to electric with time and all of them will need batteries of different size, cost and quality.

 

[jerry33]

This to me is one of the more interesting quotes.

"Looking forward to 2029, the majority of respondents expect e-vehicles to be playing a significant role in sales mix, without coming close to knocking ICE powertrains off the top spot. Approximately 40 percent of respondents from the US, Western Europe and China anticipate e-vehicles to make up 11-15 percent of new registrations, which is consistent with the previous year’s findings"

I think that is a remarkably low percentage and it will at least be the majority of new cars.

That likely says more about the respondents' knowledge of EVs than it does about future sales mix.