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Late to the Party - Last Minute Retirement Planning

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,280
11,785
Portland, OR
After going over everything exhaustively, checking for some glaring oversight on my part, over the next few days I'll notify the boss of my imminent retirement. :cool:

Does anyone else get butterflies in their stomach as the moment of transition from contemplation to action unfolds?

Yes. :)

Both leading up to the conversation about retirement, and then leading up to the actual retirement day.

The Monday after retirement was kind of odd - more like a vacation day without an ending date than retirement.


Don't worry - you'll get over it!
 

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,280
11,785
Portland, OR
What happens if you’re wrong and TSLA doesn’t grow/appreciate? What if we have another recession? You could be unemployed and unemployable just because of your age. As a hedge, I would offer to work 50% time or work from home, to assist with the transition and help “train” your replacement. I did that for 3+ years and it greatly reduced my stress level. It also put everyone on notice that I was on the way out and didn’t have to take on any “crap” tasks. I was able to focus on the tasks that I enjoyed. It worked out ok, not perfect. Sometime in the middle, more work came in that couldn’t be deferred, and management hadn’t hired enough staff as a replacement (yes, more than one person is often needed to replace an out-going retiree). Thus, I offered to temporarily go back to full time to help offset the extra work. It was definitely tough, and after a year I went back to half time, but put them on notice that there wouldn’t be a “next” time. No matter where I’ve worked, management is always slow to hire, usually 1-2 years behind, because they don’t want to expend the extra resources (money, benefits, equipment, space, training) until absolutely the last moment.

My version of this was 3 month notice that then got extended by 2 weeks and then 1 more week. And then no more.

I've worked with somebody that dropped down to 3 day/week work schedule for a couple of years, and then finally retired. That seemed to work well for him.
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
672
4,668
Terra
Can you wait until April?

I hope I'm wrong, but I have this idea TSLA will come under selling pressure after the one year anniversary of the Corona Dip. Share holders who bought after the dip will start to to realize gains at the Long Term tax rate. I'm no master of the market, and I'm probably wrong, but if I was in your place I'd wait a little bit longer just to see if that pressure happens.

I'm flexible. Giving notice now is as much about getting a feel for how much I'll be missed as anything. My suspicion is I could easily find myself persuaded to stick around until they can conjure a Plan B.
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
672
4,668
Terra
Being in the midst of the Big Chill of 2021 combined with TSLA's Q1 Post-S&P Correction, I'm holding off on making the retirement announcement until after the bosses again have power to their homes, can drive to work, and IT services are no longer in crisis mode.

Maybe by then the SP will have made a turn back to a more norminal trajectory.
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
672
4,668
Terra
When the perfect storm brings a perfect storm ...

Had to go into work today to bring things back online after the effects on the network of rolling blackouts, and, as chance would have it both bosses showed up as well.

I took the opportunity to pull them aside and broke the news about my retirement.

Counting down the days ...
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
672
4,668
Terra
For any who haven't found it, take a look at the FireCalc.com site. I found it invaluable as a second opinion to compare results from the spreadsheet I cooked up. I ran both the spreadsheet and FireCalc using different sets of variables to generate a variety of scenarios, all of them based upon very conservative portfolio gains. (be sure to notice the several tabs in FireCalc where changes can be made)

The final analysis on the spreadsheet calculated account balances into the future based upon:
  • taking up to no more than $30K in margin this year and each of the 2 following years
  • the portfolio earns a flat 10% annual gain for each of the following 3 years (living off margin loan and Social Security)
  • TSLA gains can then accumulate without selling shares to live on for up to three additional years if desired
  • from year 4 to year 19, the balance uses a random annual gain of between 4% and 6% for the next 15 years (age 80)
  • from year 4 to year 11, $30K each distributions are taken from the IRA and Invest accounts to supplement Social Security
  • from year 12 to year 19, what's left of the IRA is only tapped for play money, distributions are taken from Invest (30K) and Roth(15K), plus Social Security
Obviously, these are what most TMC TSLA HODLers would consider "lowball" estimates for TSLA growth. At this stage of calculation I wanted to downplay gains to assure me I could retire today based upon these gain and distribution levels. It was meant to show a poor growth scenario.

Once I ran the same figures in FireCalc the resulting graphs showed all lines calculated against historical data each remaining comfortably above the Red line.

The addition of 30K from a margin loan up front for 3 years was crucial for demonstrating a safe retirement this year.

Because total margin borrowed in year 1 will be less than 15% (of 25% offered) from the IBKR account it seems to indicate quite a bit of wiggle room left to prevent any margin call situation arising.

I'm hoping the SP gains will be better than 10% going forward. If the SP performs well this year and next I may be able to begin distributions earlier, or, have more margin bucks to access from IBKR's 25% limit on an account made up of 99% TSLA and then I could continue to dip from this well in order to preserve the shares for further growth.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: adiggs

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
672
4,668
Terra
Thanks to a combined effort between myself and Mr. Murphy I get to test my spreadsheet today putting in the numbers as the SP dives for 700. The formulas still show the plan as good for the next 18 years or so, only based upon today's numbers and the conservative gain percentages.

Gotta love that Murphy, such a kidder. Trying to get my goat. Clearly, he doesn't know I'm a HODLer and this just looks like a reset back a few weeks to the beginning of the year. Tesla Fundamentals are rockin' and demand for their wares is outstripping supply.

 
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Reactions: adiggs

Featsbeyond50

Member
Apr 27, 2019
216
546
Washington
Thanks to a combined effort between myself and Mr. Murphy I get to test my spreadsheet today putting in the numbers as the SP dives for 700. The formulas still show the plan as good for the next 18 years or so, only based upon today's numbers and the conservative gain percentages.

Gotta love that Murphy, such a kidder. Trying to get my goat. Clearly, he doesn't know I'm a HODLer and this just looks like a reset back a few weeks to the beginning of the year. Tesla Fundamentals are rockin' and demand for their wares is outstripping supply.

That guy Murphy is renowned for his impeccable timing.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: 2daMoon

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
672
4,668
Terra
Fortunately, I have a sense of humor when it comes to life. Doubly so regarding the market. Otherwise, I might be fretting inconsolably after HODLing TSLA the past few weeks.

Still, I know the foundation and prospects for TSLA are sound and this presents an opportunity to see what else I might get into to expand what I have so I can buy more chairs.

Things are always more interesting, and life so much more rewarding, when I have complex problems to solve for. I wouldn't want to get all comfy and complacent now, would I?
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
15,375
33,360
Oregon
For those that are looking to use a line of credit as part of their plan E*TRADE has a promotion of 0.5% discount off the rate spread if you open a line of credit with them before May 14th. E*TRADE Line of Credit

If you already have a line of credit with them you can likely negotiate the 0.5% reduction.
 

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