Leak: “every other car off the line is the X”

[FluxCap]

Hey, People

We got a pretty huge leak today, imho. The quote is right there in the title.

I'm obviously not going to say who the source is, but I think it's solid.

Matches well with other leaks/rumors from the past week or two, but a relief to me to see such a strong statement.

(Nearly) full details here: CleanTechnica Exclusive: Tesla Model X Production Kicks into High Gear

Thanks for the great coverage as usual, Zach. Good times.

 

[ZachShahan]

Thanks for the great coverage as usual, Zach. Good times.

Thank you much, Flux. I'm honestly humbled by how much wonderful stuff is shared here by owners, investors, and other enthusiasts. Just trying to 1) do my part here when I can, and 2) bring more of the goodies to more eyes. Of course, the overall goal is to help society not self-destruct (and take 50% or more of the world's species with it).

 

[Cottonwood]

I heard from a reliable source, who was on a recent tour, that while X's may not be every other car down the line, they are at least every 3rd or 4th car!

The log jam may have broken. Good luck to all you future X owners!

 

[ZachShahan]

I heard from a reliable source, who was on a recent tour, that while X's may not be every other car down the line, they are at least every 3rd or 4th car!

The log jam may have broken. Good luck to all you future X owners!

Awesome. Seems to fit well. This leak we got came yesterday from someone inside of Tesla. I'm assuming they ramped up production further (since your friend's/source's tour) as they finished "true" Founders Series Xs and started delivering Signature Series Xs.

We could all just wait a couple weeks to learn more But I'm very curious to see how progress is going, and I know many others here are too. Thanks for providing info to connect more dots.

 

[Cottonwood]

Awesome. Seems to fit well. This leak we got came yesterday from someone inside of Tesla. I'm assuming they ramped up production further (since your friend's/source's tour) as they finished "true" Founders Series Xs and started delivering Signature Series Xs.

We could all just wait a couple weeks to learn more But I'm very curious to see how progress is going, and I know many others here are too. Thanks for providing info to connect more dots.

My reliable source saw the line very recently...either way, the log jam is broken!

 

[hobbes]

Not sure if I follow, but the only logical meaning this has to me is:

If 1000 vehicles are produced this week, 500 are Xs.

I think bwa meant if 50% of produced cars are Xs, over what time span is that calculated (like last month, last week etc.). From how I understood the info coming from your source it was just a short term snapshot of looking at the line and seeing as many Xs as Ss, as in "same order of magnitude", not counting cars for a week and taking the ratio. In that way Cottonwoods source would match yours, too. Right?

 

[ZachShahan]

I think bwa meant if 50% of produced cars are Xs, over what time span is that calculated (like last month, last week etc.). From how I understood the info coming from your source it was just a short term snapshot of looking at the line and seeing as many Xs as Ss, as in "same order of magnitude", not counting cars for a week and taking the ratio. In that way Cottonwoods source would match yours, too. Right?

Okay, yeah, it was a statement of overall production right now (i.e., this week), from what I gathered. And I don't know if it came from looking at the line or receiving the info from someone a step higher, but the statement was very specific, and I think this person is in a position to know what the production rate is.

 

[ilovemycoffee]

Will this mean the fit and finish of the current Model X will be equivalent to a 2015 Model S and not a first year Model S?

 

[AB4EJ]

Will this mean the fit and finish of the current Model X will be equivalent to a 2015 Model S and not a first year Model S?

Probably not, because the MX has lots of new parts. I would expect fit & finish to be somewhere between the two extremes you mention.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, yeah, it was a statement of overall production right now (i.e., this week), from what I gathered. And I don't know if it came from looking at the line or receiving the info from someone a step higher, but the statement was very specific, and I think this person is in a position to know what the production rate is.

Tesla is trying to to catch up on MX volumes now (mid-December) so they can report MX volumes for the year as being something closer to the earlier forecast.

 

[ZachShahan]

Tesla is trying to to catch up on MX volumes now (mid-December) so they can report MX volumes for the year as being something closer to the earlier forecast.

I've definitely been expecting that. However, notes by others that Tesla is taking a lot of time even after the Xs are delivered to make sure everything is correct before deliveries scale up is good news from a holistic company perspective.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Notes of caution would be that Tesla has lots of space in Fremont, so they would be able to build many partial cars that would be completed later when parts supply catches up.

 

[1208]

Undercover footage of Tesla board meeting on how to get more X's off the line...

Got to make em work on the 25th.

 

[FredLambert]

so that "leak" was completely inaccurate. Nowhere close to "every other car". more like 1 in 6 and that was for the last week of December. This came out on the 18th, which means it was probably closer to 1 in 8 at that time.

 

[MichFin]

so that "leak" was completely inaccurate. Nowhere close to "every other car". more like 1 in 6 and that was for the last week of December. This came out on the 18th, which means it was probably closer to 1 in 8 at that time.

A car coming off the line and actually making it to the customer are two very different things. It usually takes 7-14 days to ship the car to the customer.

 

[Aljohn]

Wow... Really!! A Rumor that wasn't true posted here. Go Figure.... :crying:

 

[CmdrThor]

A car coming off the line and actually making it to the customer are two very different things. It usually takes 7-14 days to ship the car to the customer.

Still though Tesla announced the Model X production rate was 238 units per week at the end of 2015. It is certainly possible someone saw every other car being a Model X at some point in the assembly line, but extrapolating that to thinking Model X production was already equal to Model S was not accurate.

 

[FredLambert]

A car coming off the line and actually making it to the customer are two very different things. It usually takes 7-14 days to ship the car to the customer.

Tesla confirmed both Model X production and deliveries. I was talking about production. Either way, both numbers don't match Cleantechnica's "leak".

 

[ohmman]

To be fair, it was a spot check. Upthread it was discussed that "every other car off the line" over the course of an hour doesn't mean half the production over the course of a month, week, or even day. So the leak might have been true, but the extrapolation was off-base.

 

[PeterK]

To be fair, it was a spot check. Upthread it was discussed that "every other car off the line" over the course of an hour doesn't mean half the production over the course of a month, week, or even day. So the leak might have been true, but the extrapolation was off-base.

+1. The way they batch things they could have had a run of every other car for a short period of time.

 

[Aljohn]

Hey, People

We got a pretty huge leak today, imho. The quote is right there in the title.

I'm obviously not going to say who the source is, but I think it's solid.

Matches well with other leaks/rumors from the past week or two, but a relief to me to see such a strong statement.

(Nearly) full details here: CleanTechnica Exclusive: Tesla Model X Production Kicks into High Gear

The author didn't say "I observed". It was a quoted "solid", unnamed source justified by ClenTech's article. With 208 deliveries or 508 builds against 17000+ Models S's, it is unlikely observations of any length could justify the conclusion.

At any rate, the post of Model X's around the country was encouraging. Albeit, the number of Sigs built was low as Tesla worked through the build issues.