Let's talk Autopilot on HW 2.5 vs HW 3.0

[MXWing]

A lot of people, understandably, were interested in securing HW 3.0 for their vehicles.

The presumption is that AP that came with the purchase or added on later will be a better performing product than HW 2.5. For FSD purchasers, it saves a service trip but I doubt that is a huge concern overall since a swap was promised.

Elon says HW3 is pointless if you are only staying on AP and EAP. Is Elon being entirely truthful here?

In theory, HW2 was supposed to be capable of FSD and this was released at the end of 2016.
HW2/HW2.5 is not going to work for Level 4/Level 5 Autonomy, this has been settled. However, reducing the goal to just Level 2 might be feasible.

There's discussion threads on cars still being shipped with HW 2.5. The new AP is far less sophisticated than EAP. Tesla is charging $2K for it bundled in but it doesn't do anything really other than TACC/Autosteer.

Since it does just that, is there really any worry about HW 2.5 on cars being shipped today?

The best can be unlocked anytime with an FSD purchase.

If Tesla still has HW 2.5 hardware lying around or can get it cheaper than HW3, data analytics would tell Tesla they should install them on cars that have low probability of ever purchasing FSD.

 

[Tam]

...Elon says HW3 is pointless if you are only staying on AP and EAP. Is Elon being entirely truthful here?...

It's all speculations at this point.

Tesla could say that HW2.0 is it. Or HW2.5 is it. Or HW3.0 is really it.

But we won't know until regular youtubers can prove which can do the job and not just what Tesla says!

 

[TampaRich]

Didn't Elon say that all hardware would be upgraded to 3.0 for FSD customers. Everyone that’s paid for it will get it. Requires patience.

 

[dloop]

I have hw3 and it's providing no additional benefit for the current AP that I can tell, nor did I expect it to. Firmware updates for hw3 cars are currently coming out a bit later too, so there's that

Down the road I'll get to avoid the the 2.5 for 3.0 swap out, but that's not supposed to be much of a service visit to make that happen, and can even be done by mobile rangers.

So right now, this seems like a non-issue to me.

 

[Kmartyn]

A lot of people, understandably, were interested in securing HW 3.0 for their vehicles.

The presumption is that AP that came with the purchase or added on later will be a better performing product than HW 2.5. For FSD purchasers, it saves a service trip but I doubt that is a huge concern overall since a swap was promised.

Elon says HW3 is pointless if you are only staying on AP and EAP. Is Elon being entirely truthful here?

In theory, HW2 was supposed to be capable of FSD and this was released at the end of 2016.
HW2/HW2.5 is not going to work for Level 4/Level 5 Autonomy, this has been settled. However, reducing the goal to just Level 2 might be feasible.

There's discussion threads on cars still being shipped with HW 2.5. The new AP is far less sophisticated than EAP. Tesla is charging $2K for it bundled in but it doesn't do anything really other than TACC/Autosteer.

Since it does just that, is there really any worry about HW 2.5 on cars being shipped today?

The best can be unlocked anytime with an FSD purchase.

If Tesla still has HW 2.5 hardware lying around or can get it cheaper than HW3, data analytics would tell Tesla they should install them on cars that have low probability of ever purchasing FSD.

Just got my new May 19 build date M3 last week. Ordered with FSD, came with 2.5. When I found this out at pickup, they said the upgrade will not be this year, and pointed out that there would be a long line ahead of me.

Yes I will get an the upgrade I already paid for, but when?

Elon did say those that order the car with FSD, will get the upgraded computer free. However I did not hear him say those that order after delivery would not also have to pay parts and labor for for the upgrade, on top the FSD FEE.

 

[dloop]

Elon did say those that order the car with FSD, will get the upgraded computer free. However I did not hear him say those that order after delivery would not also have to pay parts and labor for for the upgrade, on top the FSD FEE.

I personally don't see that happening.

 

[Az_Rael]

Just got my new May 19 build date M3 last week. Ordered with FSD, came with 2.5. When I found this out at pickup, they said the upgrade will not be this year, and pointed out that there would be a long line ahead of me.

Yes I will get an the upgrade I already paid for, but when?

That is unfortunate. I guess your only recourse would have been to refuse delivery and wait for a hw 3 car.

I get being at the back of the line for new 2.5 deliveries, because IF Tesla does the upgrades correctly, they will prioritize the 2016 FSD buyers first. But knowing Tesla, it will be a mess once they actually start the retrofits.

 

[OCR1]

Elon says HW3 is pointless if you are only staying on AP and EAP. Is Elon being entirely truthful here?

Elon said all cars built after 4/12 have HW3.

Elon said cars would be full self driving by 2016.

Elon said if you bought an SR+ and want to downgrade they will give you your money back.

Elon said he had funding secured to take the company private...

At what point do we stop listening to what Elon said and start using common sense. AP in its current form still has a long way to go. How is it possible that an updated hardware chip that is many times more powerful than the prior generation will provide no benefit to fix the recurring problems with the current AP implementation? Does that really make sense to anyone?

Was anyone expecting the emergency lane departure features that just got added a few weeks ago? That uses the autopilot hardware. What other safety features might HW3 make possible down the road that fall outside of FSD?

I see so many people saying that HW3 won’t benefit you unless you get FSD and I just don’t get it. Stop listening to the Elon nonsense and just use your common sense here.

 

[Silicon Desert]

Hmmmm…
Elon says …
Elon says …
Elon says …

BUT, my wife says I'll be dead before there is FSD available for our car. She's been right almost all the time in the last 32 years. Elon hasn't been right once on anything he has promised me
Pssssh, don't tell the wife, but even though I've already seen 7 decades on earth, she might be wrong this time. Elon might deliver by 2016. BUT, just in case she is right again, will someone please have a séance with my spirit at my grave and let me know when you get it?

 

[ewoodrick]

This sounds like something that will be a criteria for the difference between fsd and other options. If the feature needs the new hardware, then it will be a part of fsd

 

[CarlK]

A lot of people, understandably, were interested in securing HW 3.0 for their vehicles.

The presumption is that AP that came with the purchase or added on later will be a better performing product than HW 2.5. For FSD purchasers, it saves a service trip but I doubt that is a huge concern overall since a swap was promised.

Elon says HW3 is pointless if you are only staying on AP and EAP. Is Elon being entirely truthful here?.

Yes. The new FSD neural net software has already been ported to HW3 equiped test cars. Elon said it is using only something like 10% of its capability. AP/EAP is just a small subset of that software. HW2/2.5 should have more than enough processor power to handle that.

In theory, HW2 was supposed to be capable of FSD and this was released at the end of 2016.
HW2/HW2.5 is not going to work for Level 4/Level 5 Autonomy, this has been settled. However, reducing the goal to just Level 2 might be feasible.

There's discussion threads on cars still being shipped with HW 2.5. The new AP is far less sophisticated than EAP. Tesla is charging $2K for it bundled in but it doesn't do anything really other than TACC/Autosteer.

Since it does just that, is there really any worry about HW 2.5 on cars being shipped today?

No. Why there should be any? These cars is just like any other HW2.5 cars. They can always be upgraded to HW3 if FSD is purchased.

The best can be unlocked anytime with an FSD purchase.

If Tesla still has HW 2.5 hardware lying around or can get it cheaper than HW3, data analytics would tell Tesla they should install them on cars that have low probability of ever purchasing FSD.

The new chip was planned 3~4 years ago Tesla knew it's coming. I don't think they would order extra HW2.5 so they could be lying around other than for spare part pupose. In addition since HW3 is designed and made internally it likely will not cost more than HW2.5 anyway. There is no cost advantage of not install HW3 in every new car even if it's an overkill for AP.

 

[MXWing]

Hmmmm…
Elon says …
Elon says …
Elon says …

BUT, my wife says I'll be dead before there is FSD available for our car. She's been right almost all the time in the last 32 years. Elon hasn't been right once on anything he has promised me
Pssssh, don't tell the wife, but even though I've already seen 7 decades on earth, she might be wrong this time. Elon might deliver by 2016. BUT, just in case she is right again, will someone please have a séance with my spirit at my grave and let me know when you get it?

Wow this is one of the most vicious Elon’s burns ever:

“Wife certain that husband goes to grave before FSD. Requests visit to grave site in the far future when FSD is a reality”.

Go everywhere, sleep in our cars FSD I don’t expect to be a reality until every car on the road can communicate with one another. That will take decades.

Getting from A to B without touching your wheel in geofenced, well mapped routes - possible in a decade.

HW3 computing over HW2 computing is substantial.

Inside of 5 years, I can see HW4 being 10 times more powerful than HW3. In ten years HW5 could be 10 times more powerful than HW4.

Much like with chess, driving can be solved through computational brute force.

I hope you make it 10 years and your wife is wrong for once.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I have hw3 and it's providing no additional benefit for the current AP that I can tell, nor did I expect it to. Firmware updates for hw3 cars are currently coming out a bit later too, so there's that

Down the road I'll get to avoid the the 2.5 for 3.0 swap out, but that's not supposed to be much of a service visit to make that happen, and can even be done by mobile rangers.

So right now, this seems like a non-issue to me.

Supposedly, EAP is taxing the current HW2.5, so I choose to believe that eventually HW3 will provide a better EAP experience, even though currently it doesn't.

 

[MXWing]

Supposedly, EAP is taxing the current HW2.5, so I choose to believe that eventually HW3 will provide a better EAP experience, even though currently it doesn't.

Do you have source for this?

Would love to see real time CPU/GPU load for our cars.

Right now, I am not trusting in NoA yet so if they are pretty taxed now, Tesla grossly miscalculated the computational requirements.

Hope they did not do it again with HW3.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I think the question really comes down to what deficiencies HW3 can fix, and whether that's worth the extra money it cost to go from AP/EAP to FSD (the only way a HW2/HW2.5 owner can get HW3).

We know HW2.5 crashed itself into a Semi Trailer (ignoring the topic of human oversight).
We know that HW2.5 doesn't always stop for stopped vehicles.
We know that HW2.5 doesn't read speed signs or any signs for that matter.
We know there is still a considerable amount of false braking events with HW2.5

I don't think there is any question that HW3 can provide considerably largely amounts of computing power to provide for better Neural Networks than what HW2.5 provides.

So I don't think there is any question that HW3 can improve even basic AP, and even manually driving (by improving safety related things).

Some might argue that Tesla won't allow a non-AP or basic-AP HW3 vehicle to have the SW codebase that FSD people get, but I think Tesla's track record on safety related things prove that wrong.

So I'm as strong supporter of HW3 even though Tesla hasn't released anything yet that takes advantage of it.

My prediction is within 6-9 months we'll see noticeably different user experiences of HW3 owners than HW2.5 owners.

Even small things like dancing cars I expect to be diminished with HW3.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Do you have source for this?

Would love to see real time CPU/GPU load for our cars.

Right now, I am not trusting in NoA yet so if they are pretty taxed now, Tesla grossly miscalculated the computational requirements.

Hope they did not do it again with HW3.

Several sources, but mainly Elon directly and indirectly
1) HW 2.5 is running at utilization of up to 80%
2) Current software isn't optimized for HW3, so no current benefit for HW3
3) Current software has utilization on HW3 of 10%
4) HW3 can process full 60 FPS feeds from all cameras
5) HW2.5 only processes feeds from some cameras (implication is not full resolution nor at full FPS)

BTW: I use NoA almost all the time on road trips, but not the auto-lane change feature.

 

[CarlK]

I think the question really comes down to what deficiencies HW3 can fix, and whether that's worth the extra money it cost to go from AP/EAP to FSD (the only way a HW2/HW2.5 owner can get HW3).

We know HW2.5 crashed itself into a Semi Trailer (ignoring the topic of human oversight).
We know that HW2.5 doesn't always stop for stopped vehicles.
We know that HW2.5 doesn't read speed signs or any signs for that matter.
We know there is still a considerable amount of false braking events with HW2.5

I don't think there is any question that HW3 can provide considerably largely amounts of computing power to provide for better Neural Networks than what HW2.5 provides.

So I don't think there is any question that HW3 can improve even basic AP, and even manually driving (by improving safety related things).

Some might argue that Tesla won't allow a non-AP or basic-AP HW3 vehicle to have the SW codebase that FSD people get, but I think Tesla's track record on safety related things prove that wrong.

So I'm as strong supporter of HW3 even though Tesla hasn't released anything yet that takes advantage of it.

My prediction is within 6-9 months we'll see noticeably different user experiences of HW3 owners than HW2.5 owners.

Even small things like dancing cars I expect to be diminished with HW3.

I don't think you can blame HW2.5 per se. Software was mostly responsibly for those incidences.

 

[Tam]

...Right now, I am not trusting in NoA yet so if they are pretty taxed now, Tesla grossly miscalculated the computational requirements...

I've never trusted Autopilot but I've used it since delivery and very happy with it.

I don't trust Navigation on Autopilot either but I've been using it any chance I could.

NoA and other features in Autopilot are not perfect but I do enjoy using them and I've found them very useful (as long as I know how to monitor them with steering torque feedback and override them as needed.)

 

[Tam]

I don't think you can blame HW2.5 per se. Software was mostly responsibly for those incidences.

I guess the logic here is with the new computer, the calculation is faster and thus, it will reduce the chance of collision.

But I agree with you that if software makes a decision to go ahead and crash into a Semi Trailer then it doesn't matter whether that decision is slow or fast, the collision will occur until the software will start to issue the correct instructions by braking instead of speeding.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I don't think you can blame HW2.5 per se. Software was mostly responsibly for those incidences.

The assumption I'm making is the capability of the SW is being limited by the capability of the HW.

So with more capable HW means that the SW can be significantly improved.

One possible example of this is the visualization that's shown on the FSD demo video from autonomy day. I'd love to have that Visualization (that I believe was possible due to the Neural Network running on HW3) on my car.