Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Runarbt]

Talking about demand - I can not think clear after seeing this: Realist on Twitter: "Shipments of Electric motors from Fukuta to $TSLA , flat despite Dual Motor launch" I predict it is because I am not familiar with the logistics and how it all works.. but again, some times this TeslaAgnostic makes me re-think some things or just be cautious.

I suggest you take s look at the "flat" delivery.. It is not flat at all.

 

[RobStark]

Does Tesla buy all their motors?

I thought they were making motors in house and were outfitting the Lanthrop facility to make motors?

 

[flankspeed8]

Does Tesla buy all their motors?

I thought they were making motors in house and were outfitting the Lanthrop facility to make motors?

I could have sworn that in one of the many Tesla documentaries I have seen showed them making the motors in house. It went into detail as they were spooling the copper and putting the different strands into a sheath.

 

[RobStark]

Science Channel's documentary shows Tesla's electric motors being built at Fremont.

Starts at 5:42.


They may buy electric motors for power windows from Japan. Or something else.

 

[sundaymorning]

I suggest you take s look at the "flat" delivery.. It is not flat at all.

Flat curve guesstimate here:

Q1 9,500 MS Flat deliveries.
Q2 12,500 MS Flat deliveries.
Q3 13,500 MS Flat deliveries.
Q4 15,500 MS Flat deliveries plus
4,000 MX flat = 55k.

Easy as pie.

 

[JRP3]

Science Channel's documentary shows Tesla's electric motors being built at Fremont.



They may buy electric motors for power windows from Japan. Or something else.

I believe they may buy the copper rotors for the motor from Taiwan.

http://www.coppermotor.com/2012/04/...e-better-solution-to-power-electric-vehicles/

 

[RobStark]

I believe they may buy the copper rotors for the motor from Taiwan.

http://www.coppermotor.com/2012/04/...e-better-solution-to-power-electric-vehicles/

Per your link "Fukuta Electric & Machinery Co. in Taiwan has collaborated with Tesla Motors on the development of a copper rotor induction motor for Tesla’s electric Roadster."


One of the requirements of Tesla's DoE loan was to on shore a minimum of the powertrain production to the US.


Tesla has since repaid the loan in full but have not seen/read anything since that they are going back overseas for the production of the powertrain motors or their components.

 

[JRP3]

Outsourcing the rotor alone should not change the percentage of US made components that much. Plus there is this:

Fukuta's Gordon Chang, meanwhile, has gone ahead and invested nearly NT$100 million on a 365 square meter production and R&D center in the Fongjhou Technology Science-based Industrial Park just two kilometers from his company's headquarters, in preparation for taking orders on Tesla's upcoming Model X electric car.

http://english.cw.com.tw/article.do?action=show&id=14438&offset=3

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Nope. This is a dead trend.

This is reversing, largely because school districts in the suburbs are getting worse and worse, while those in the inner cities are getting better and better. So "moving to the suburbs" is often a negative move for school quality.

In fact, I can name a family which moved from the Minneapolis suburbs to Minneapolis proper *largely because of public school .

That might be true where you live, but it is certainly not true where I am. The urban schools nearest to me continue to deteriorate to the point where many believe the situation is hopeless without a major government intervention.

The unfortunate truth is that race, and to an even greater extent, class, means that the well-to-do here choose the suburbs over the city.

 

[RobStark]

Outsourcing the rotor alone should not change the percentage of US made components that much. Plus there is this:



http://english.cw.com.tw/article.do?action=show&id=14438&offset=3

You forgot the headline .......Why Did Taiwan Lose Tesla?

Any one piece is not much but they add up.

No mention of Model S production just preparation for expected Model X contract.

 

[woof]

Does anyone else keep hearing the music from Close Encounters when they see this?

Looks like Devil's Tower to me!

 

[Zzzz...]

You forgot the headline .......Why Did Taiwan Lose Tesla?

Any one piece is not much but they add up.

No mention of Model S production just preparation for expected Model X contract.

Around Model S launch in 2012 there was an article with picture of Fukuta guy(CEO or something) holding Model S copper rotor. So most likely at least some rotors were produced by them. But Tesla may have insourced production since then. Or found another supplier.

 

[JRP3]

You forgot the headline .......Why Did Taiwan Lose Tesla?

Any one piece is not much but they add up.

No mention of Model S production just preparation for expected Model X contract.

Since that article is from Oct 2013 it's also possible that with the X delay and increased S production and the introduction of the D, along with the loan payback and presumably no further NA content requirement, that Fukuta was back in play sooner.

 

[chickensevil]

Warning: Elon will be selling more stock to raise capital for expansion. So your deduction *does not work*. Suppose, for instance, that Elon doubles the stock outstanding by selling a secondary public offering to raise money for the Gigafactory -- then that would make your stock target ony $2750.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but... I wouldn't say it so matter-of-fact that they *will* raise more capital. Elon has said for the next couple YEARS they will not need to raise capital. If they get the kind of cash flows that he has been hinting at that starts in Q3/Q4 of this year then it honestly sounds to me like all their money problems will be no more. They have had to spend an *enormous* amount of cash to get Fremont to the state that it is currently in, and will have to spend a ton more over the next year which is why their capex burn is so rough. Combine that with really high R&D costs for the Model X and it is no wonder they look like they are burning through cash faster than a lottery winner at a strip club.

Again, they very well *could* do a capital raise, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, assuming they have good reason for it (really rapid growth of new factory expansion... like capital to seed 3 new factories or some such all in one go) but I wouldn't say it is 100% a sure thing to happen.

 

[Causalien]

Talking about demand - I can not think clear after seeing this: Realist on Twitter: "Shipments of Electric motors from Fukuta to $TSLA , flat despite Dual Motor launch" I predict it is because I am not familiar with the logistics and how it all works.. but again, some times this TeslaAgnostic makes me re-think some things or just be cautious.

The misinformation is strong in this one. I believe Realist makes the right logical deduction from this chart, but Realist does not have the full picture on this matter I am afraid.

 

[RobStark]

Since that article is from Oct 2013 it's also possible that with the X delay and increased S production and the introduction of the D, along with the loan payback and presumably no further NA content requirement, that Fukuta was back in play sooner.

Coulda woulda shoulda Mighta

 

[Causalien]

You forgot the headline .......Why Did Taiwan Lose Tesla?

Any one piece is not much but they add up.

No mention of Model S production just preparation for expected Model X contract.

Hmmm,

A chinese corp owns 20% of Fukuta. I would suspect trade secret considerations for not using Fukuta. But Tesla opened their patents so this might not be the case.... too many strings to chase in this web. Not enough motivation to chase these.

 

[MikeC]

Taiwan Supplies some 12% of Parts in the Premium Tesla Model S | CENS.com - Taiwan Industry Updates | Industry In-Focus | HTML |Ta1-CaA-Dy2013/10/04-Id43640

From 10/4/13: "Fukuta Elec. & Mach. Co., Ltd. is the only Taiwanese supplier of the motor on the Model S featuring high-conductivity die-cast copper rotor for higher efficiency, lower power consumption, compact size and lighter weight."

 

[Runarbt]

Google and Solarcity

Google and SolarCity 2.0

This should be a positive regarding Tesla's residential power unit product?

 

[austinEV]

Concerning the thread about sitting and not market timing, this article made the rounds on reddit. What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common SenseA Wealth of Common Sense It is about how holding on to your position is more important than correct timing. A person who chose only the worst possible times to enter the market over the last 40 years, but held through the crashes was still a millionaire. Advice I don't take myself, but whatever