Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[dakh]

My guess is that their specific energy is pretty low so it's impossible to make a reasonable car with bigger battery. I'd be too heavy and expensive. So even if they don't blow smoke with those prices it's not very interesting, give us a price for a battery with energy density comparable to NCA cells.

 

[pGo]

GM : battery cost $145/kWh now, $100/kWh by 2018

GM made some interesting announcements today (including having autonomous Volts run around their campus next year). But, this, is what I find very interesting.

GM warns the Valley: Prepare to compete over driverless cars | The Seattle Times

This cost without owning a GF? Hard to believe.

 

[JRP3]

In another article I thought they said that price was at the cell level, not pack level.

 

[EVNow]

My guess is that their specific energy is pretty low so it's impossible to make a reasonable car with bigger battery. I'd be too heavy and expensive. So even if they don't blow smoke with those prices it's not very interesting, give us a price for a battery with energy density comparable to NCA cells.

How do you know LG's new battery sp. Density?

It must be pretty good if they can squeeze enough battery into Bolt to get EPA 200+ miles range. And for Audi etc to claim 300 mile cars.

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This cost without owning a GF? Hard to believe.

LG completing a 100 k battery plant in China soon - with little fanfare. Different companies work in different ways.

 

[jhm]

GM already has millions of cars on the road that are connected to the Internet, and it has young engineers who are helping to develop new technology that will lead to autonomous driving, said Mark Reuss, GM’s product development chief.

Wow, I did not see that coming. They seem extremely well positioned, what, with Internet connected cars and young engineers. Who'd a thought GM would be the disruptors.

Actually, it's quite refreshing to see Grandpa Motors get excited about electric and autonomous vehicles. This is exactly what accelerating sustainable transport should look like. I hope they're serious.

And now that GM has told the world what it's cell cost is, I hope that Tesla will return the favor. I'm quite tired of having to guess at what Tesla's battery cost is. Besides, I think it would encourage others to join the race, if we all knew how far down the track Tesla has gone.

 

[jhm]

Anybody who's got batteries in range of $100/kWh in 2018 should be selling into the storage market. They should be able to undercut Tesla's Powerpack price and sell as much as they could make.

 

[30seconds]

One of the interesting things about the X reveal is that it gives a idea of a next generation Model S. I think and S refresh/ update would fit in great between the release of the X and the Model 3 towards the end of 2016. At that point the S will be 4 years old, the X will be in full production and the 3 will still be a year or so away. This will provide a demand boost for the S as it gets a bit "long in the tooth" so to speak. Plus the work involved in a S redesign should be substantially less than either the X or the 3.

They could start with a new front end and the panoramic windshield. Maybe other upgrades such as the self opening doors, electronic spoiler, 360 cameras and ventilated seats. Maybe drop the 3rd row seat option and go with an even nicer back seat.

 

[RobStark]

LG completing a 100 k battery plant in China soon - with little fanfare. Different companies work in different ways.

What ? What exactly is a 100 k battery plant?

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Ok googled myself.

Seems like they had quite a bit of fanfare.

They say enough cells for "100k EV batteries."

Presumably that means 100k battery packs. But they don't say GWh or how big in kWh each pack will be?

For cars how big to travel how far? This could be a relatively tiny .5 GWh facility or something as big as a quarter the size of the GF. Presumably this will use Chinese minerals and imported African minerals. We know these will be clean and ethically sourced too.

 

[MitchJi]

Anybody who's got batteries in range of $100/kWh in 2018 should be selling into the storage market. They should be able to undercut Tesla's Powerpack price and sell as much as they could make.

Tesla will have PACK prices that low by 2017.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Tesla will have PACK prices that low by 2017.

Pretty sure Tesla is targetting $100/kwh in 2020, and that is production cost.

 

[tftf]

This cost without owning a GF? Hard to believe.

TSLA investors will soon see that other battery companies/suppliers aren't sleeping until 2020. The numbers are directly quoted from GM's IR page and they are indeed at the cell level:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...yfFBhcmVudElEPTUxOTQwNzR8Q2hpbGRJRD01OTYxNTU=

See page 52.

LG Chem has supply contracts with many large car brands across the globe. There will be many factories. Supply for GM's Bolt is just one of the first supply contracts to be fulfilled in 2016-2017.

If I read GM's slides ("6 for 16", page 99) correctly the GM Bolt is indeed intended for production by late 2016 already.

 

[MitchJi]

Pretty sure Tesla is targetting $100/kwh in 2020, and that is production cost.

I'm pretty sure that's too high. I'm planning to start a thread, in the next few days on Tesla's battery pack costs in which I think I will make a compelling case for $100 or less per kWh by 2017.

 

[pGo]

TSLA investors will soon see that other battery companies/suppliers aren't sleeping until 2020. The numbers are directly quoted from GM's IR page and they are indeed at the cell level:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...yfFBhcmVudElEPTUxOTQwNzR8Q2hpbGRJRD01OTYxNTU=

See page 52.

LG Chem has supply contracts with many large car brands across the globe. There will be many factories. Supply for GM's Bolt is just one of the first supply contracts to be fulfilled in 2016-2017.

If I read GM's slides ("6 for 16", page 99) correctly the GM Bolt is indeed intended for production by late 2016 already.

Thanks. They are claiming $145 cell cost at launch for Bolt in slide 54. Its impressive considering they don't own the GF and risks associated with it (investment, operations, and must be humming to see profit). So at that cost for GM, LG may not be far behind Tesla. One advantage to LG is that their operations are in Asia where they get environmental and labor benefits.

 

[Perfectlogic]

I'm pretty sure that's too high. I'm planning to start a thread, in the next few days on Tesla's battery pack costs in which I think I will make a compelling case for $100 or less per kWh by 2017.

I'm just going by the guidance from Tesla's management which is $100/kwh (I assume production cost) by 2020 which is already a very large cost reduction. You wrote that Tesla will hit $100/kwh by 2017 in a very confident tone, I'm just saying that we should stick to the guidance and let it be clear when we are speculating so readers aren't mislead and we don't muddy the discussion with speculative assumptions.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Quick update on the recent news on the exhaust fraud in the long term thread as this is no longer short term topic, but still has impact on auto stocks and TSLA:
- Focus on diesel ICE, as emmission of NOX particles is a big issue for diesel ICE as they have different combustion temperatures compared to gasoline ICE.
- Main focus is Volkswagen Group with currently VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda as brands that have used diesel ICE engine type EA 189 (emission class EURO5).
- Now also VW utility vehicles involved (link).
- Volkswagen officially admitting 11 million vehicles invoved globally. These vehicles use Volkswagen diesel ICE EA 189, that was build from 2009 till 2014.
- Basic system SW used by the cheating device is from BOSCH, altered by Volkswagen.
- As Volkswagen states, new production diesel ICE from this year (with new emission class EURO6) are not involved in this fraud.
- Switzerland decided to stop new car sales for all Volkswagen Group vehicles beginning Monday next week (October 5th), open end (link).
- France joining other states like Canada, USA and Germany (Braunschweiger Staatsanwaltschaft) in taking legal action against Volkswagen Group.
- France wants already paid subsidies for eco friendly vehicles back from Volkswagen group (link).
- Volkswagen Group USA boss Micheal Horn invited to US Congress October 8th with EPA representatives invited as well.
- Volkswagen reducing capacity in their factory in Puebla in Mexico, no more working on Saturday shifts.
- Volkswagen owner families Piech and Porsche using this turmoil to install "family friendly" persons in important positions such as Volkswagen Group CEO Matthias Müller, Volkswagen Group CFO Frank Wittwer and chairman of the supervisory board Hans Dieter Poetsch, retail investors and government officials in Germany not happy with these decisions. E.g. Pötsch could be involved in this exhaust fraud during his time as member of the board! comment link
- Volkswagen now recalling 225000 vehicles in Sweden.
- US fine up to $18 billion, compensations could exceed this number.
- SW including the defeat switch is from year 2005 (link).
- In 2005 Ferdinand Piech, as chairman of the supervisory board, wanted to implement "Pumpe Duese" ("pump-nozzle injection system") technique for the diesel ICE, despite of other manufacturers implementing modern common rail technique.
- The final test drive of 1.6l and 2.0l diesel ICE EA 189 before production was done by Ferdinand Piech and others in South Africa during 2005 (this is the real story, amazing).
- Volkswagen Group cancelled their annual shareholder meeting, that was planned for November 9th, because of exhaust gate.
- First German shareholders taking legal action against Volkswagen Group (link).
- Up to $35billion fines in Australia, almost 700000Euros per vehicle sold (link).


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I'm just going by the guidance from Tesla's management which is $100/kwh (I assume production cost) by 2020 which is already a very large cost reduction. You wrote that Tesla will hit $100/kwh by 2017 in a very confident tone, I'm just saying that we should stick to the guidance and let it be clear when we are speculating so readers aren't mislead and we don't muddy the discussion with speculative assumptions.

^This, please.
Difficult enough to dig up the facts every time in all that misinformation in public media.

And BTW I love to hear everybody's speculations and assumptions as well, but please mark em as such!

Thank you all so much in advance!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

- Volkswagen Group USA boss Micheal Horn invited to US Congress October 8th.

That should be enough to stop them doing it again.

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I'm just going by the guidance from Tesla's management which is $100/kwh (I assume production cost) by 2020 which is already a very large cost reduction. You wrote that Tesla will hit $100/kwh by 2017 in a very confident tone, I'm just saying that we should stick to the guidance and let it be clear when we are speculating so readers aren't mislead and we don't muddy the discussion with speculative assumptions.

Unless you can find a quote, I believe it's an _aim_ by _2025_ of $100/kWh.

 

[Perfectlogic]

That should be enough to stop them doing it again.

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Unless you can find a quote, I believe it's an _aim_ by _2025_ of $100/kWh.

From A quick search I found this Tesla Projects Battery Costs Could Drop To $100/KWH By 2020 - HybridCars.com otherwise I'm just going by memory where I recall hearing the $100/kwh number several times. Haven't heard any expectation for 2025 by Tesla, do you have a source?

 

[RobStark]

GM CEO Mary Barra speaking at its Global Business Conference had some interesting slides.

Gen 2 Volt profit per car will increase $3500 over Gen 1.

 

[adiggs]

@RobStark - now this is the kind of positive and interesting news that I like spending my time discussing.

That looks like a matter-of-fact presentation by somebody that's at LEAST mostly in - maybe all in. I like the shaping the future slide, where they talk about aluminum to steel welding. I would expect that to be exceedingly difficult. It also sounds like a technical ability that would enable a company to use a mixture of steel and aluminum throughout a car - getting the strength of steel where that's needed and cost ineffective to do it some other way, while easily getting the weight benefits of aluminum where that is cost effective.


I'll answer the obvious comment - yes, it's obvious that a rigid and quality automobile can be built out of aluminum. Let's remember that these slides are talking about relatively low cost vehicles and include information about what looks like significant weight savings. If you're selling at the $100k range, the available construction and materials options expand. At low cost, steel is hard to beat.


Anyway - I like it. Some competition to keep Tesla nimble and moving (ok - the promise of the possibility ).

 

[dalalsid]

Ok this is fantastic. $3500/car more on gen 2 volt. Now only thing left for GM is to use the money to fund a supercharging network.