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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
Moderator Note:
Slightly more than half of the prior two pages of posts absolutely deserve to be snipped - let's end it right now.
As a strongly worded suggestion, however: do consider your wording if you write something you know will be controversial - whether bearish, bullish or piggish - and it's ALWAYS a good idea to preface such statements with the recognition that you're presenting opinion.
Slightly more than half of the prior two pages of posts absolutely deserve to be snipped - let's end it right now.
As a strongly worded suggestion, however: do consider your wording if you write something you know will be controversial - whether bearish, bullish or piggish - and it's ALWAYS a good idea to preface such statements with the recognition that you're presenting opinion.
Offering a suggestion is different than making a statement of fact or opinion. Sorry Aud, will let it lie now.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As do I. The probability of the leading manufacturer in a growing industry which is still in the "Innovators" stage being demand limited for any of their products is quite low.
Over the long term, I suspect Tesla may do what other car makers do and introduce most new technologies on their higher end cars and only trickle them down to the mainstream cars when they have been proven and some of the wow factor has worn off. Back in the 60s power windows and door locks were only available on premium cars, but are now standard on most cars. Back up cameras will be on all car soon because US law will demand it, but it was a luxury car feature a few years ago.
This keeps up demand for the high end cars, and it allows car companies to do the final debugging of new technologies on more limited release cars before releasing it to the masses.
However, I do agree that the Model 3 could hurt Model S sales at least initially. I've been watching the used and inventory markets for a while and Tesla has had a lot of inventory Ss for sale the last 4-5 months. It's more now than ever and a number of them only have a few miles on the odometer. I suspect they built a few more inventory cars the last quarter because demand has been a bit soft. They are now pitching them as the last of the classic look cars now that the facelift is out there, but i don't see the inventory going down much. In some regions like Florida they have started discounting the inventory cars.
Back when I first started looking in July last year, there were only a few inventory cars advertised on the CPO part of the site and those all had 2K-4K miles on them. There were many more used Teslas than new.
Tesla has said that since the Model 3 reveal Model S sales have gone up and the refresh probably helped that. A lot of people would prefer the refresh if the cost is essentially the same, but with prices on the inventory cars dropping, some people are opting for the inventory cars. One thing I am concerned about for Tesla's resale is if a number of those people who are buying Ss now plan to dump them when the Model 3 comes out and there will be a glut of used Ss around.
This keeps up demand for the high end cars, and it allows car companies to do the final debugging of new technologies on more limited release cars before releasing it to the masses.
However, I do agree that the Model 3 could hurt Model S sales at least initially. I've been watching the used and inventory markets for a while and Tesla has had a lot of inventory Ss for sale the last 4-5 months. It's more now than ever and a number of them only have a few miles on the odometer. I suspect they built a few more inventory cars the last quarter because demand has been a bit soft. They are now pitching them as the last of the classic look cars now that the facelift is out there, but i don't see the inventory going down much. In some regions like Florida they have started discounting the inventory cars.
Back when I first started looking in July last year, there were only a few inventory cars advertised on the CPO part of the site and those all had 2K-4K miles on them. There were many more used Teslas than new.
Tesla has said that since the Model 3 reveal Model S sales have gone up and the refresh probably helped that. A lot of people would prefer the refresh if the cost is essentially the same, but with prices on the inventory cars dropping, some people are opting for the inventory cars. One thing I am concerned about for Tesla's resale is if a number of those people who are buying Ss now plan to dump them when the Model 3 comes out and there will be a glut of used Ss around.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Uh oh -- "demand constrained"? Again?
How come this gentleman is repeatedly yet forcefully applying his wooden cane to this equine specimen which appears deceased?
In my opinion, a used S will still be better than many (most?) cars that are $35k and up. So if you are saying that the Model 3 is so appealing that it absorbs all the demand for cars 35k and up (used S being one), you are essentially saying that very few buyers in that segment would be choosing anything from competitors either. That isn't a problem, so not really anything to worry about, in my opinion.
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Tesla seems to have manufactured some model S for CPO inventory. This keeps their numbers up, and lets them hide discounting.
Very long lead time on Model 3 could increase demand for lower priced CPO model S.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I'm bearish on Tesla because well, I just sold all my shares and im here to troll, hoping to scare the bejezzuz out of everyone. This may effectively cause a cascade of stop loss orders which can potentially drive prices down even lower so I can buy back in. I want to milk this method as much as possible before M3 launch because the strategy, IMO is working, especially with members here. I mean c'mon, this thread is filled with non-educated, misinformed investors who clearly has no data to back up their opinions. Am I fooling anyone yet?
There aren't going to be that many M3 buyers who go for the $35K base car. Elon has said the average is going to be around $42K. If someone is comparing a well equipped M3 at $50K to a fairly bare bones CPO MS with rear wheel drive and no AP, I think most are going to go for the M3.
My point is they have had many more new inventory cars over the last few months than they had when I first started looking last summer. The CPO/Inventory car website last summer was 95% CPO and 5% Inventory and all the inventory cars had a couple of thousand miles on them. Now the site has 0 CPOs for the entire US and 370 inventory cars. Around 50 of those cars have less than 100 miles. Around 150 have less than 1000 miles.
Tesla Inventory Search
http://ev-cpo.com/
The third party sites are easier to search than the Tesla site. I've seen Tesla's site just drop cars from the list mysteriously when you change parameters. For example you search for 90D only and a car that was on the list when showing all disappears.
dc_h
Active Member
Apparently they did list about 100 CPO cars on the site within the last couple of hours. So the used ones are coming back. Apparently a lot of leases from 2013 are expiring.
Gerardf
Active Member
What do you base that remark on ? I am not aware of any factual information to points to that. Au contraire.
I am not so sure what to think of the last line in that quote...
Are you seriously implying that Tesla is 'dumping' newly build cars in the CPO stock to sell at a lower price ?? This instead of delivering to their world-wide customers eagerly awaiting delivery of their ordered full-price Model-S. (Or is this a language barrier at work and do I not understand what you say correctly ?)
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Apparently those test drive cars need to be replaced after a couple hundred miles.
They need to be replaced when a new Model S design is introduced. Exactly like they did when they introduced the dual motor / autopilot variants.
How does something this obvious not make sense to you?
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