Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Words of HABIT]

Eligible Electric Vehicles

The above link is to the Ontario, Canada Govn't Tax Rebate for EV purchase.
All North American PHEV and BEV are listed. Take a look at one column: Battery Size. This clearly shows how far behind the major auto manufacturers are. Ironically all the major manufacturers can build a competitive EV. The reason they have not done so is simple: they don't want to. It won't be until Tesla is selling greater than one million EVs per year that the majors will wake up from their slumber and put their prime focus, not just compliance purpose, on EVs, but by then it might be too late to stop the onslaught by Tesla.

My Tesla M3
$35,000US base options $43,750CAD
$40,000US cost with options $50,000CAD

Canadian Tax (13%) $56,500CAD
Ontario Tax Rebate -$14,000CAD
Total Purchase Cost $42,500CAD

 

[kenliles]

Excellent dissertation paper:
EGEB: Study–world powered by solar within 50 miles; Florida utilities own politicians part ∞; more

"<
Policy, Geospatial, and Market Factors in Solar Energy: a Gestalt Approach – In a research paper written by Dr. Wesley Herche, we’re shown that greater than 99% of all locations can have their energy – not just electricity, but energy- needs to be met by solar power within 50 miles of said locations. Dr. Herche (give him a pat on his twitter back for his recent dissertation defense) is a former senior intelligence officer and current executive leader at @asu_gsi with experience in analyzing land and coming up with conclusions for professionals to act on. The values used to determine this conclusion are all very conservative – for instance, 10% solar panel efficiency was used when current standard efficiency panels are 60% greater and the premium product is 100-140% greater. This document proves that there are nearly zero places on the planet that cannot make solar power their primary source of energy.
>"
some interesting sample extracts from his paper:

 

[MitchJi]

Eligible Electric Vehicles

The above link is to the Ontario, Canada Govn't Tax Rebate for EV purchase.
All North American PHEV and BEV are listed. Take a look at one column: Battery Size. This clearly shows how far behind the major auto manufacturers are.

Ironically all the major manufacturers can build a competitive EV. The reason they have not done so is simple: they don't want to.

No they can't. For example the Chevy Bolt. Decent car, but not competitive with Tesla's.

Primarily due to battery costs. Traditional oem's are waiting for costs to come down. Tesla is reducing those costs. Mostly due to vision and commitment.

 

[MitchJi]

Excellent dissertation paper:
EGEB: Study–world powered by solar within 50 miles; Florida utilities own politicians part ∞; more

"<
Policy, Geospatial, and Market Factors in Solar Energy: a Gestalt Approach – In a research paper written by Dr. Wesley Herche, we’re shown that greater than 99% of all locations can have their energy – not just electricity, but energy- needs to be met by solar power within 50 miles of said locations. Dr. Herche (give him a pat on his twitter back for his recent dissertation defense) is a former senior intelligence officer and current executive leader at @asu_gsi with experience in analyzing land and coming up with conclusions for professionals to act on. The values used to determine this conclusion are all very conservative – for instance, 10% solar panel efficiency was used when current standard efficiency panels are 60% greater and the premium product is 100-140% greater. This document proves that there are nearly zero places on the planet that cannot make solar power their primary source of energy.

I bet that the remaining one percent can easily be met by wind. There's a strong correlation between lack of sunshine and wind.

And I believe that the most expensive locations (beyond the one percent) for Solar are locations where wind is relatively affordable.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

No they can't. For example the Chevy Bolt. Decent car, but not competitive with Tesla's.

Primarily due to battery costs. Traditional oem's are waiting for costs to come down. Tesla is reducing those costs. Mostly due to vision and commitment.

Well, Tesla _says_ that it has cheap batteries, and _plans_ to lower costs. But there's nothing about any public pricing that suggests that Tesla _actually_ has cheap batteries.

 

[larmor]

Well, Tesla _says_ that it has cheap batteries, and _plans_ to lower costs. But there's nothing about any public pricing that suggests that Tesla _actually_ has cheap batteries.

People pay a premium for the iphone, and as apple has a significant amount of cash, we presume apple makes them cheaply. Why not ask apple to publicly announce the cost of their iphone production per unit piece, it is afterall a public company... just sayin'

 

[MitchJi]

Eligible Electric Vehicles

The above link is to the Ontario, Canada Govn't Tax Rebate for EV purchase.
All North American PHEV and BEV are listed. Take a look at one column: Battery Size. This clearly shows how far behind the major auto manufacturers are.

Well, Tesla _says_ that it has cheap batteries, and _plans_ to lower costs. But there's nothing about any public pricing that suggests that Tesla _actually_ has cheap batteries.

Try reading the post that I was responding to. There's a lot of other evidence, TE pricing for example.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model 3: here’s the alloy mix of the Model 3 body

 

[JRP3]

Wonder why the doors, front fenders, and hood are missing? I'd hear reports of aluminum body panels, but obviously not the rear fender.

 

[RobStark]

Wonder why the doors, front fenders, and hood are missing? I'd hear reports of aluminum body panels, but obviously not the rear fender.

This is the frame repair guide for body shops for the Unibody Model 3. Not a cost and competitive analysis for TSLA investors.

Doors, hood,roof,trunk,and fenders are not part of the frame. Almost certainly aluminum and a bit more difficult to repair than steel but not anywhere near as difficult as repairing an aluminum frame.


Good thing the quarter panels are mild steel for ease of repair and rear wheel wells and rear under body is aluminum as this is the area most prone to rust in salty slush.

 

[trils0n]

Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

Some interesting stuff in this article, particularly around the battery heater.

If the article is correct, there is no battery heater in the Model 3. They use the motor as a heater (even when parked, apply current to motor to produce heat w/o motion). This is pretty cool to me, and speaks to Tesla's process of innovation, which is a good long term indicator.

Eliminating the heater for the pack saves weight, cost and I think reduces assembly complexity. The motor should already be connected to the heating/cooling system, so it makes sense to me to use it for heating, instead of having to add a heater and the additional connections to integrate it with the cooling system.

Was curious how Tesla got the weight of the Model 3 so low, even with the large battery, despite making pretty extensive use of steel. I bet they rethought / re-engineered many parts of the car to minimize weight and cost. The heater is probably just one example of many similar rethinks.

Will be interesting when(if?) this tech makes it to the Model S and X (as those cars could certainly stand to reduce weight!)

 

[RobStark]

For a point of reference.

 

[generalenthu]

Today's announcement regarding GM's autonomous car, along with Waymo's efforts, are what worry me who has been a long time shareholder and intend to hold on for a lot longer. In the long-term, the game is basically about autonomy (on an electric platform) where you rent rather than own (Transportation as a service).

Tesla is obviously making all the right moves, and I was hoping that they would be in a position to get to level 3 at about the same time as other car companies that are using LIDAR. It looks like they will be joining the party later, as they don't still seem to have their arms around image recognition + radar fully yet. This is as evidenced by Tesla even struggling with AP2 functionality and the distinct lack of fleet learning so far.

I do understand that some big projects look like there is no progress and then when a version ships, it looks like a huge jump. Hopefully they are working on this in the background, and the rate of AP2 improvements in production is not indicative of the actual progress they've been making.

GM claims to be ready to mass produce self-driving Chevy Bolt EVs

 

[Ulmo]

Today's announcement regarding GM's autonomous car, along with Waymo's efforts, are what worry me who has been a long time shareholder and intend to hold on for a lot longer. In the long-term, the game is basically about autonomy (on an electric platform) where you rent rather than own (Transportation as a service).

Tesla is obviously making all the right moves, and I was hoping that they would be in a position to get to level 3 at about the same time as other car companies that are using LIDAR. It looks like they will be joining the party later, as they don't still seem to have their arms around image recognition + radar fully yet. This is as evidenced by Tesla even struggling with AP2 functionality and the distinct lack of fleet learning so far.

I do understand that some big projects look like there is no progress and then when a version ships, it looks like a huge jump. Hopefully they are working on this in the background, and the rate of AP2 improvements in production is not indicative of the actual progress they've been making.

GM claims to be ready to mass produce self-driving Chevy Bolt EVs

Same thoughts here. Elon mysteriously claims many dozens of times to be driving the future version and that it's amazing and great, and it seems like that's the only person experiencing or thinking that. Of course, everyone else is making claims and not delivering, too.

 

[mikevbf]

Tony Seba's youtube is a much watch for the long term TSLA investor. Try watching just the first 5 minutes; you'll watch the whole hour:

 

[hcsharp]

Tony Seba's youtube is a much watch for the long term TSLA investor. Try watching just the first 5 minutes; you'll watch the whole hour:

Watching that video brings up a couple of questions. First, he suggests that the market for new cars will drop by as much as 80%. Private ownership will all but go away. It will be replaced by Transportation as a Service from self-driving cars. If that's true, what will happen to Tesla when the new car market drops by 80%?

 

[D-egg-O]

Watching that video brings up a couple of questions. First, he suggests that the market for new cars will drop by as much as 80%. Private ownership will all but go away. It will be replaced by Transportation as a Service from self-driving cars. If that's true, what will happen to Tesla when the new car market drops by 80%?

I think that is the reason for the Tesla (ride sharing) Network in the secret master plan part 2.

 

[JRP3]

If that's true, what will happen to Tesla when the new car market drops by 80%?

I don't think it's true. While the number of registered vehicles may drop because of higher utilization rates the number of miles traveled per person may not. That means the same number of miles per year must be covered by the smaller fleet of vehicles which will translate into more miles per vehicle and faster replacement cycles.

 

[ls7corvete]

Watching that video brings up a couple of questions. First, he suggests that the market for new cars will drop by as much as 80%. Private ownership will all but go away. It will be replaced by Transportation as a Service from self-driving cars. If that's true, what will happen to Tesla when the new car market drops by 80%?

Tesla builds the cars that replace the 80% that are not needed any longer.

 

[mikevbf]

I don't think it's true. While the number of registered vehicles may drop because of higher utilization rates the number of miles traveled per person may not. That means the same number of miles per year must be covered by the smaller fleet of vehicles which will translate into more miles per vehicle and faster replacement cycles.

That's why Seba says there will be no ICE vehicles as part of "transportation as service" fleets. Electric cars have fewer moving parts and thus last longer and need less maintenance. Watch from about 36:30 and the 20:00 mark.