Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Ocelot]

Not sure where to post this but...

Every ICE car commercial that I can't avoid seeing increases my confidence that Tesla is gonna eat ICE lunch, dinner, and bedtime snacks. I just saw an online commercial for a car I can't remember (only seconds later) and what three features were emphasized? Sorry, I can't remember. Except one of them was "sporty alloy pedals" (or something like that).

So you've got 15 seconds to convince your captive audience (who is pissed off at being captive) that your car is hot and sporty. So what do you show them? Shiny pedals?

Sorry, Mr. Car-I-can't-remember. You are done.

i think this relates to long term fundamentals...when you fundamentally have a better product. i would like to echo with my experience buying an aftermarket stereo this month for my audi. cost-2100 (no speaker changes), and it sucks. you figure an aftermarket stereo would be amazing, I mean that's the companies focus, no? it literally feels so antiquated compared to the model s interface. its like i bought it in 1999. pioneer/kenwood/ alpine as for interfaces go are stuck years behind, and that goes with all overall dash layouts/control systems of all 2014 model cars. soon buttons, knobs, and touchscreen lagginess will be relics of a bygone era. the future (Tesla) is now. At the backbone of all financial matters- having a fundamentally better product, to me is the most important base for the long term success of Tesla. As when you have that, everything else (cars produced per quarter, sales in China etc) follows.

Edit: This to me is also why Apple is waffling and personally I am not investing. The competitors have caught up. The time to invest is now.

 

[Julian Cox]

Peter JA "So you've got 15 seconds to convince your captive audience (who is pissed off at being captive) that your car is hot and sporty. So what do you show them? Shiny pedals?"


+1

Added to long term fundamentals, NFLX worth $Billions in market cap on the back of a business model that involves consumers actively signing up and paying in droves to not to have to be repeatedly pissed of by commercial breaks in whatever it is they are trying to watch for entertainment.

Heaven help the ICE boys on a trend of declining consumer numbers that can be accessed by forced-messaging. Tesla has a considerable advantage in a world in which actually making outstanding cars with an outstanding value proposition and delivering outstanding service becomes an increasingly important marketing asset.

 

[PeterJA]

Heaven help the ICE boys on a trend of declining consumer numbers that can be accessed by forced-messaging.

Accessed and influenced. Contact with my retina does not mean favorable contact with my brain.

YouTube has three types of ads. The most irritating is a banner ad that overlays the video you are trying to watch, which requires you to click to close it and back up the video to see what you missed. This is so idiotic that I can't understand how it has lasted this long. I never read the ad before I close it. If I did, the product would be associated in my brain with irritation. Note to advertisers: If you want your audience to hate your product, buy this type of ad.

The second type is a television-like commercial before the video starts. Years of conditioning by TV make me less irritated at these, but I simply zone out for the 15 seconds and remember nothing (unless something especially idiotic catches my attention like shiny alloy pedals). Other video sites use 30-second commercials, which always irritate me because they are longer than the YouTube ones.

The third type on YouTube is a long (multi-minute) commercial that you can skip after 5 seconds. I actually don't mind these, maybe because I still enjoy saying **** you to the advertiser by clicking the Skip button. Sometimes I watch the whole 2 minutes when the ad agency has worked hard to present something beautiful or funny or visually arresting. But then they have to somehow tie that entertainment to the product. Volkswagen ads have made me laugh, but did they make me buy a Volkswagen? Not yet.

The longterm trend caused by diverse communication devices is higher quality information in ads (targeted and/or entertaining) and higher quality products. The smartest companies will do both.
Tesla Model S - Winter Driving Redefined - YouTube

 

[AudubonB]

There's a bit of discussion on the short-term thread about Jeremy Grantham's reaction to being driven in a Model S. The following snip from the full Barron's interview is, in my opinion, worthy of this L-T thread and quite something coming from a man who knows about the oil business and resources in general:

My guess is that oil prices will be higher than now in 10 years, but after that, who knows? The idea of "peak oil demand" as opposed to peak oil supply has gone, in my opinion, from being a joke to an idea worth beginning to think about in a single year. Some changes seem to be always around the corner and then at long last they move faster than you expected and you are caught flat-footed.

 

[Larken]

YouTube has three types of ads. The most irritating is a banner ad that overlays the video you are trying to watch, which requires you to click to close it and back up the video to see what you missed. This is so idiotic that I can't understand how it has lasted this long. I never read the ad before I close it. If I did, the product would be associated in my brain with irritation. Note to advertisers: If you want your audience to hate your product, buy this type of ad.

The third type on YouTube is a long (multi-minute) commercial that you can skip after 5 seconds. I actually don't mind these, maybe because I still enjoy saying **** you to the advertiser by clicking the Skip button. Sometimes I watch the whole 2 minutes when the ad agency has worked hard to present something beautiful or funny or visually arresting. But then they have to somehow tie that entertainment to the product. Volkswagen ads have made me laugh, but did they make me buy a Volkswagen? Not yet.

Get Adblockplus, it removes ALL the adds on YouTube and pop-ups on your computer. It's soooooo good, Wish I'd found out about it years ago. Adblock Plus - Surf the web without annoying ads!, it's just a add-on script to your browser.

 

[mershaw2001]

Actually i can second that on adblock plus, it's about the best thing I've discovered. Free, and it takes about 30 sec to add to your browser.

 

[ggies07]

Don't know where to put this, but Ashton Kutcher has a great mentality that works for moving things forward, ex. EV movement. "The people are going to have what the people want."

Starts around the 3 minute mark about how Uber was first not allowed in certain cities:

 

[TD1]

EU about to sign a transatlantic trade deal with the US, which would eliminate all the import tax on Tesla Cars.
This is huge!
Im not sure what the import tax rate was but afaik it was 15-20%
That would put TM in a much better position.

So I guess Teslas second factory will be definitely in China and not the EU.
This deal makes it much easier for Tesla to scale up and go mass-market.
Especially in the low-cost class of Model-E the importax would have been a big hurdle, and building a factory in Europe would have been necessary but now thats not longer the case.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/06/us-eu-usa-trade-idUSBREA1519S20140206

 

[772]

The article mentions the EU import tariff for US cars is 10% (while the US charges a 2% tariff for EU-made cars). This would definitely help Tesla. As for the gain today, that article seems to have been released yesterday morning. Maybe a delayed reaction, but I'm more likely to say it was just the overall market momentum.

 

[AlMc]

The article mentions the EU import tariff for US cars is 10% (while the US charges a 2% tariff for EU-made cars). This would definitely help Tesla. As for the gain today, that article seems to have been released yesterday morning. Maybe a delayed reaction, but I'm more likely to say it was just the overall market momentum.

Agreed. The general positive market combined with money flowing out of LNKD, TWTR, other 'momos' to get into TM before earnings.

 

[uselesslogin]

The article mentions the EU import tariff for US cars is 10% (while the US charges a 2% tariff for EU-made cars). This would definitely help Tesla. As for the gain today, that article seems to have been released yesterday morning. Maybe a delayed reaction, but I'm more likely to say it was just the overall market momentum.

Are we completely sure Tesla didn't already avoid this Tariff with their facility in Tilburg?

 

[Norse]

Are we completely sure Tesla didn't already avoid this Tariff with their facility in Tilburg?

You have a point there mister. The reason why Norwegian cars does not go thru Tilburg is because we do not tax the Teslas. So I guess they save some taxes because they are doing this.

 

[772]

Are we completely sure Tesla didn't already avoid this Tariff with their facility in Tilburg?

Good point, I'm honestly not sure. Did Tesla ever give a breakdown of EU pricing like they did for China? I'm just going through pricing on a few of the EU sites and this is what I'm finding:

The US prices are $71,070/$81,070/$94,570 for S60/S85/P85 base models without the $7500 tax credit.

Germany

	S60	S85	P85
Base price	65,740	75,340	88,040
VAT	10,500	12,500	14,000
Price - VAT	55,240	62,840	74,040
Price in USD	75,281	85,638	100,901
Premium over US price	5.93%	5.63%	6.69%

France (would appreciate someone explaining the reason for much lower prices - does Tesla the company get some incentive in France?)

	S60	S85	P85
Base Price	59,440	69,040	81,840
VAT	11,000	12,500	14,500
Price - VAT	48,440	56,540	67,340
Price in USD	66,014	77,052	91,771
Premium over US price	-7.12%	-4.96%	-2.96%

Netherlands

	S60	S85	P85
Base Price	66,640	76,240	88,700
VAT	11,500	13,000	15,500
Price - VAT	55,140	63,240	73,200
Price in USD	75,145	86,183	99,757
Premium over US price	5.73%	6.31%	5.48%

Norway (converted to USD)

$75,032/$85,062/$98,780 (5.57%/4.92%/4.45%)

This is a bit lower than pricing in Germany and the Netherlands, but not by that much (obviously not including other incentives). If Norway has no import tax on the Model S, then I'm guessing Germany and the Netherlands don't either. The premium probably just accounts for the cost of transatlantic shipping and final assembly to EU specs. Still wondering about that pricing in France... is it accurate?

 

[Cattledog]

Crude math observation about the reservation rate of Model X compared to Model S at this point in their early life:

Model X Tally - Page 74

 

[mrdoubleb]

Crude math observation about the reservation rate of Model X compared to Model S at this point in their early life:

Model X Tally - Page 74

Well, I don't know if your math is correct, but I can't argue with the trend you are seeing. I've been saying for a while now, people underestimate the Model X. Most analysys I've read puts its potential (well) below Model S sales figures. But it is an SUV, and SUVs are all the rage these days, especially in the US. Add to that the stunning looks (i swear Franz can make a pig look like Angelina Jolie), the performance, the range and the Tesla reputation and "coolness factor" the Model S created. We just passed 10k preorders in January by the TMC guesstimate, and we are almost at 11k now. This thing is going to be a huge hit. If Elon decides to reveal or even hint at preorder figures during the 2014 outlook call, or the X production version reveal, TSLA will explode.

 

[TD1]

When did Tesla removed the Model X single motor option?
Am I mistaken or did tesla offered initially the option of Single Moter, Dual Motor, Dual Motor Performance.
If they removed the single motor option, that could be a sign that TM is expecting that the Model X will be supply restricted for years to come.
Also the fact that there are already 10000 Reservation of the Model x of which 1200 are Signature Edition.
Thats 1200x40000$= 48Mio in down payments.

 

[AlMc]

When did Tesla removed the Model X single motor option?
Am I mistaken or did tesla offered initially the option of Single Moter, Dual Motor, Dual Motor Performance.
If they removed the single motor option, that could be a sign that TM is expecting that the Model X will be supply restricted for years to come.
Also the fact that there are already 10000 Reservation of the Model x of which 1200 are Signature Edition.
Thats 1200x40000$= 48Mio in down payments.

You are correct that single and dual motor drives were initially offered. If memory serves me correctly, the single (RWD) motor version option was removed a couple months ago.

 

[Adm]

Still wondering about that pricing in France... is it accurate?

There is a €7000,= subsidy on all EV's in France. This explains why dealer demo's are so cheap. Renault Zoe's are offered €9/10k less than MRSP with 500-4000km on the odometer.

 

[772]

There is a €7000,= subsidy on all EV's in France. This explains why dealer demo's are so cheap. Renault Zoe's are offered €9/10k less than MRSP with 500-4000km on the odometer.

Thanks... they actually mentioned this on the website too, I just missed it :redface: Looks like the 7,000 was recently reduced to 6,300.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

The easiest and unbiased method would be to check Other EU as region. It's a blanket covering all other countries and includes no local taxes (i.e. VAT) or incentives. So pure EU specifics with no local bias.