Yes and they are asking questions... about charging, the weak link of EVs. From everything I have seen Tesla competitors will have a hard sell trying to get people to buy cars they will have a hard time taking on trips.
I get questions about that too. First off the refueling situation for day to day driving is far better if you have a way to charge at home. Every time you leave the house you have 90% of a full "tank". My SO is always in a panic when she is in a rush and realizes her ICE is low on fuel. I never worry about that. Even when I've forgotten to plug in the car a few times I may be annoyed with myself next time I set off somewhere, but I still have 70% of a charge to go 40 miles.
But on the road I talk about when I had an ICE, my instinct was to just get in the car and drive without stopping except as short as possible for fuel (human and car) and restroom breaks.
I got there in the shortest possible time, but my body was wrecked in the process. Last time I drove 700 miles in an ICE in one day my back hurt for weeks and I could barely walk the next day. By having to stop every 250 miles or so for supercharging, it forces me to get out and walk around.
On my one long road trip I did 600 miles in one day with supercharging. It took me longer than expected because California was having a lot of supercharger problems and I got some slow superchargers, but when I got to my hotel for the night, I was surprised that while i felt tired, I didn't hurt. The 700 mile trip we had two drivers and I was a mess. On my Tesla trip I had to drive alone and did over 2000 miles in 5 days and when I got home I wasn't even tired (the last day was about 300 miles).
For someone who is on the road all the time, maybe an EV is not for them, but for the typical person who only road trips once or twice a year, it does take longer, but you get there feeling less worn out. The forced breaks are actually good for you. On one leg of the trip I was feeling pretty tired by late afternoon, so I napped while the car was supercharging and was able to get to my destination more safely.
Destination chargers at hotels are more common now too. I was able to work in a destination charger on my 2016 trip and that meant I could go over 3 hours in the morning without having to stop for charging.
Yes, there are several factors slowing Tesla sales, but I don't get the S/X sales dropping to half. That has got to be some sort of decision on Tesla's part. While losing $3,750 on a $35,000 car is not insignificant, on a $100,000 car it is much less significant. It's hard to believe solid sales of 10,000 a quarter of each of those two models would drop to 5,000 just because the subsidy dropped to half.
The dropping of the tax incentive combined with the free supercharging going away spurred many who might have bought a Model S or X this year to buy early. The early year sales slump was bigger this year because of it. Tesla has dropped the price so a new Model S or X costs significantly less than it did, even with the incentive. I compared the current Model S equipped as close as possible to my 2016 and the price is about $12K less. Mine had free supercharging for life and the tax incentive, but the new ones have AP 2.5 and 100 KWH battery.
But most people aren't aware that the price is lower in part because the entry price is higher. When I bought the cheapest Model S was around $65K.
I am concerned about the Model S/X volumes. They need to be watched over this year, but I think the refresh is coming and there might be an Osborne effect due to the rumors. People are holding off buying waiting to see what the refresh looks like.
I don't know. Indicators are that Tesla doesn't compete as well in Europe where they have better charging infrastructure for non-Tesla cars than here. In particular Norway is an EV bastion and Tesla has a much smaller market share if I remember correctly. But we will see.
Tesla doesn't compete well in all European countries, but last year they had around a 6% share in Norway and according to reports sales of Model 3s there have been huge so far this year. They sold 8614 Model S and X on Norway and 8604 in the Netherlands. Other European countries were a sharp drop from there. A lot of European countries have huge taxes on cars. About 2 years ago in Denmark there was a big rush for Model S before a tax holiday on electric cars expired and the price more than doubled.
Generally American cars have never sold well in Europe. The only American cars other than Tesla sold in Europe today are some exotics like Corvettes. Ford sells a lot of cars in Europe, but I believe most are made there for that market.
With fewer long range trips, there isn't as big a demand for long range EVs in Europe as there is in the US and Canada. Europe also has a better intercity rail network than the US has, so there are other options than driving.
In the 45+ years I've been driving I don't think I've ever replace antifreeze unless it was lost. With Tesla ending the recommended annual checkup, I don't expect to need any service other than my rear doors for years. That is not promoted much... well, Tesla doesn't seem to promote their cars in general, so I guess that makes sense.
In California with the hot summers we changed out the radiator fluid every couple of years. The glycol would really be broken down by that point. Here in western Washington, you can usually get away with less frequent changes, but in eastern Washington where winters can be as brutal as Minnesota people at least have it checked every fall. You don't want the fluid to freeze in the engine.
Solar electricity isn't free. You should amortize the cost of the setup across the kWh generated to get the per kWh cost. But the cost of ownership includes every cost, insurance, repairs and the car itself. There is no way I can amortize the cost of my car and claim I'm saving money, but an X is not a 3 or a Y.
True. Electricity is so cheap here few people have solar because the amortization period is 10-20 years. It's taken off in places like Arizona because people are seeing their $500/month summer electricity bills go to $10 and the system pays for itself in only a few years.
When I run the numbers for my ICE truck, it was about the same for gas as the cost of the vehicle. 200+ kmiles at $22,000, ~$2.50 per gal and 20 mpg. Around $0.10 per mile for each. At $35,000 (which is the super economy version) that over 50% more for the vehicle so the fuel cost of around $0.05 a mile makes it a wash without considering the rest. I'm told insurance is high because of the repair cost as well as the frequency of accidents. Not sure where I heard that, possibly my insurance agent. I'm going to get a quote from another company or two to compare.
Insurance on Teslas can be all over the map. I shopped around and found insurance for my Model S that was the same as my old Buick. I added comprehensive and collision that I didn't have on the Buick (a waste on a 24 year old car), so I'm paying more overall, but equivalent coverage is the same. Currently I'm with Safeco.
Washington does charge a $150/yr surcharge on car registration, but gas here has rarely been less than $3/gal for years, usually around $3.50, though I think it's crept down closer to $3 lately. Washington has a fairly high gas tax.
US S/X declined less than 25% in Q1 vs. prior year, roughly 9800 to 7500. Rest of world declined from 13k to 4.6k. The Netherlands went to almost zero, of course, but 50-75% declines across Europe were pretty common. Discontinued 75D doesn't really explain it - they still sold a lot of those out of inventory. S/X was also pretty low in China despite the open tariff window.
With the trade war going on, the Chinese are avoiding all things American. I work for a company that makes test equipment for the integrated circuit industry. About half their business was sales to China and that has just about dried up even though their equipment is not on any tariff list.
My 2011 Toyota van just crossed 100k miles. 10 oil changes, one new set of tires and some air filters (engine and cabin). No "radiator service, belts, hoses, transmission service". Still on original brake pads. I'll consider a Model 3 for my next car, but saving money vs. something like a Camry Hybrid is not part of the equation.
Modern ICE do need less service than older ones. My 1992 Buick had oil changes every 3000 miles, and all those services a few times by 100K miles. I let the radiator hoses go too long and one of the lower ones blew out. Fortunately it was in a parking lot, but we were moving. It was also late on a Friday afternoon, but fortunately I found a shop open on Saturday it could be towed to and the car was back on the road by noon the next day.
Here is the Julian Cox analysis:
Why Tesla Model 3 Will Upend The Global Auto Industry (Cleantech Revolution Tour Video) | CleanTechnica
Unfortunately he's almost as bad a public speaker as Elon.
The few documented battery failures, e.g. Bjorn and Tesloop, have been very sudden.
Most of the failures were in early Model Ss and most were something other than the main pack. I have seen stories here of people having a few cells go bad in the main pack, but that usually results in the battery capacity dropping suddenly.[/QUOTE]
