A few months ago I would have agreed with you. But more recently my personal experience coupled with the present estimated demand of Tesla EVs says we are not yet ready for the EV experience. I have not spoken to even one person who is seriously interested in buying an EV. In spite of the fact that I drive a somewhat flashy EV (the FWDs always attract attention) no one has ever asked about it in the sense of being interested in buying one rather than just curious or actually trying to get the skinny on just how "bad" EV ownership is.
The auto industry is cyclical, that's a fact. We appear to be heading into a period of reduced demand which will not be good for any automaker including Tesla. Don't sing the death march of the ICE just yet. Pickups and SUVs are still very much in vogue and can easily stage a resurgence of ICE growth when the next cycle begins.
Really? While you see Tesla "changing up" their line, I see a company circling the wagons to deal with the loss of demand and sales. But it is too early to sing the death march of Tesla as well. I'm just concerned that Q1 is turning out so poorly. If Q2 is equally as bad I'm not sure Tesla will survive. The stock market is already awash with reports of the financial problems which are not all malarkey. At some point it will be enough that Tesla becomes the next American Motors. Would anyone like to test drive a Gremlin?
As some have pointed out, it looks like you're in South Carolina. The disinterest in EVs there might be a combination of that being truck country and in some parts of the US the political climate is blowing the other way. EVs are very popular in the west coast states as well as most of the more urban areas of the country.
Outside the US EVs are becoming very popular in Europe where governments are pushing for their adoption on top of growing consumer awareness. China too is encouraging EV ownership and there are a lot of domestic brands, but Tesla is the big cache brand and they will be making Model 3s in China soon.
Car sales always sees a dip in the first quarter of the year, and this year was going to be worse than usual for Tesla because the $7500 credit ran out December 31 and Tesla also scaled back the referral program. Tesla built a lot of Model 3s in Q1, but many were still in transit overseas at the end of the quarter. Those sales will be credited to this quarter.
The Model S especially is looking a bit tired compared to the Model 3. There were rumors of an update last fall, but it was delayed because of the Model 3 production problems. It's almost certainly coming sometime this year.
GM is pushing hard to extend the EV tax credit which might happen. If so the $7500 will be back for a while.
I don't think this year is going to be stellar for Tesla, but I don't see them on the ropes either.
Absolutely true. The $35k (or $39.5k) Model 3 with incentives is quite competitive relative to brand new ICE sedans, but that's only a fraction of the market.
In our particular community, most people buying new vehicles want AWD (Subaru is quite popular here). That may not be true in most of the rest of California, but the desire for AWD is quite strong in many areas of North America and perhaps Europe. The trouble is, to buy a Model 3 with AWD, you have to pay up for the Long Range battery and premium interior, so you're looking at a vehicle that's significantly more expensive than a Subaru. Specifically, a Model 3 LR AWD is $49,500, or closer to $40k after incentives/savings. Searching Autotrader in our area, I see that a new Subaru Impreza (comes with AWD) can be purchased for as little as roughly $20k, or a larger Subaru Outback for about $30k.
Of course, the auto market as a whole has shifted toward CUVs, SUVs, and pickups, and the Model Y won't be available in volume for close to two years. Plus, most vehicle transactions take place on the used market, where there are even fewer EV/Tesla choices.
In North America, most people still have to be convinced to pay more for a Tesla. The electric drivetrain and Autopilot are huge Tesla selling points, but most consumers have yet to be educated on the advantages. Advertising might help, but it's hard to say. Full Self Driving would be a giant shot in the arm, if it's anywhere near as close to fruition as Elon claims.
I think Tesla needs to raise more capital and just keep plugging away. Although the timing is uncertain, the market will continue to shift toward EVs. In the meantime, I hope Elon can avoid unnecessary controversy with the SEC, preferably without undue restrictions on his tweeting. (I generally see Elon's presence on Twitter as a big positive, and I wish the SEC would just bug off.)
Subarus are popular here too. My SO has an Impreza and I did a calculation of how much it costs to drive both cars. My Model S costs about $0.025/mile and here Impreza about $0.10/mile and my car handles better in the snow (an admission that came hard to her). Even though EVs cost more initially, the cost of ownership is significantly cheaper. My SO has probably spent more in regular maintenance on her Impreza than I have in electricity for my Model S over the last 3 years.
Most people still don't realize that yet, but awareness is growing.