Lutz's Japanese counterpart Takeshi Uchiyamada Toyota Chairman

[bhzmark]

Further confirmation that technology advances one funeral at a time:

Interview: Toyota chairman wants to tap the brakes on electrics- Nikkei Asian Review

Highlights:

"If electric vehicles catch on too quickly, most automakers won't be able to turn a profit. That's true of Toyota as well, though we should be able to turn out just enough of the vehicles to stay in line with regulations."

"Q: Some envision electric vehicles accounting for 30% of new-car sales in 2030.

A: That's too soon. Toyota sells 9 million vehicles a year, and 1.4 million of them -- 15% -- are hybrids. It took us 20 years to get to this level. I think 30% electric by 2030 is impossible. It might happen if every country were to go all-out on regulation, but this would create chaos and make consumers unhappy.

Many problems still need solving: range, charging time, battery life. We're working on a solid-state battery, but not even this would be enough. There will never come a time when all cars are electric."

"
Q: Are Toyota's plans for fuel cell vehicles in the Lexus luxury car brand and other projects going as expected?

A: Various plans could shift slightly. It's not as though we're tossing fuel cells to the back of the line, but we have quite a number of things to try.

We're putting more weight on commercial vehicles -- buses and trucks -- than before. We're working with Seven-Eleven Japan on small-scale deliveries using fuel cell vehicles. We built a fuel-cell-driven trailer truck in California. These all showcase the trademark noiseless drive of fuel cell vehicles."​

Yes, he said the "trademark noiseless drive of fuel cell".

This guy is demented -- living in an ICE and H world. Laughable really. Hopefully his engineers are nodding politely and ignoring him.

 

[Ovulation]

Further confirmation that technology advances one funeral at a time

btw. Max Planck said that sentence when young guys like Heisenberg were messing around with quantum theory and he was (like Einstein) not able or unwilling to wrap his brain around the new concept, so basically, he meant himself, which is kind of funny and gives the sentence a different spin.

 

[Electroman]

 

[FutureShock]

Further confirmation that technology advances one funeral at a time

At Toyota, this thinking goes beyond just Uchiyamada, though.

Basically, the whole company many years ago put its money/investment/mindshare behind the idea that 'THE AUTOMOTIVE FUTURE' would go like this:

Step One: Hybrids
Step Two: Plug-in hybrids
Step Three: Fuel cell vehicles

So, they 'skated to where the puck was GOING to be', invested and developed expertise in the technologies they thought/strongly-believed would be the future. Then they'd just have to wait for all that lovely lovely cash that would rain down on them for DECADES for being right and being better at the dominant technologies than their competitors, given their investments, developed expertise, and first-mover advantages.

It was a great plan, except that reality didn't quite work out that way. Pure electrics have come along and upset the apple cart.

But Toyota has a LOT tied up in its 'grand vision' of the future – time, money, mindshare, and, they believe, their future dominance of the auto industry. So, they are loathe to give it up. They'll keep on insisting that it's going to be all about hybrids, PHEVs, and fuel cell vehicles until the cows come home... or until pure electrics take off to the point where they're going to have to desperately scramble to try to catch up.

And after all, some of this is about public perception, too. 'The Next Big Thing' is determined not only by technology, but by what the public believes the Next Big thing to be. Another reason for Toyota to keep trumpeting hybrids and fuel-cells, all while talking sh** about pure electrics.

Reminds me a bit of Microsoft about 20 years back... dominant, but then the Internet came along and changed everything, all while Bill Gates himself was still calling said Internet "a fad". But then it finally became obvious that the guy at the top had got it very, very wrong, and the entire huge ship had to do a big 180 turn. A little bit too late, as it turned out. Microsoft, of course, is still a player, but is no longer dominant.

If pure electrics ramp up as quickly as many ppl suspect, I wonder if Toyota will slowly diminish from being one of the 'Big Three' worldwide automakers to being 'just another automaker'.

If so, they'll have their stubborn love of their 'grand vision' to thank for it (i.e. 'pure electrics are just a fad'). And the internal enforcers of that vision, like Uchiyamada.


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[FutureShock]

To wit, here's the latest article showing Toyota stubbornly clinging to hydrogen. Sigh.

Though TBF, perhaps one can make somewhat better arguments for hydrogen for heavy trucks and bus usage than for cars.

And, as a California resident, I do like how Cali is seemingly 'ground zero' for worldwide post-ICE-tech efforts, and how doing stuff here is seen as giving such tech credibility/visibility. Though I don't like how hydrogen is apparently trying to 'greenwash' itself via Cali's green reputation, given that hydrogen production actually uses fossil fuels and releases a lot of carbon (via methane steam reformation, the cheapest/likeliest hydrogen production method).

Toyota seeks fuel cell breakthrough with California hydrogen plant- Nikkei Asian Review

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